Today's news is outstanding, and deserves a much higher jump than we got. The fast run up to 65 has been refilled, and it's been heading north despite the fall in oil prices. Now that oil is bouncing and has likely seen its low for now, and with this bettery news, we should retest 65 once again. Today's late sell-off is simply nervous nellies getting out before the big November jobs number tomorrow morning and the fate of QE. But with the fast growth in California reported earlier, and this battery system announcement, and the still significant short interest, the stock should work it's way up.
Can't believe that Fast Money would give any air time to mention of that dirtbag senator Sessions who's spouting the standard Republican war on anything renewable. Oil company shills in the red states are on the run in terms of the general populace, and their downfall will continue. The witch-hunt will go nowhere. Give thanks for the buying opportunity which is already fast disappearing.
I feel sorry for the chumps who sold at 21.56. In general I'm not a sympathizer for the big institutions and am in favor of the common guy trying to get back some of the money Wall Street has taken from us... but the institutions who dominate this stock are going to use this selling as an opportunity to pick up cheap shares. The "hot money" has left it seems - but similar to the advice "never short a dull market", I will not put in any sell orders above the market that are at all like the daily range. There could be news at any moment on a buyout offer. I have no inside information, just that if I were eyeing, I'd be most especially interested when ACAD has drifted down to the 20 area and hope the shareholders would vote 'yes' on a bargain buyout like, say $30.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We're still in consolidation. We bounced down from the 50DMA from program trading most likely. Need a catalyst to take us through. I'd have thought the big biotech rally today might do that, but it seems not. We're stuck in the low 20's for the time being. It's a conservative, safe price, and there are likely still some profit-takers out there and institutions still wanting to nibble in the low 20's waiting for the inevitable jump to the high 20's, is my expectation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Still, it's possible we won't see a new rally until year-end profit taking and locking in is done and that'll take another month perhaps. I plan to sit tight and sell nothing, not at these prices. I might be tempted to part with a small amount if it gets back to ~$27, but not at $22.
WE've now had almost 5 months of 20 as the key; first as overhead resistance, which didn't last long - then as support, and it's held 4 times over the past weeks. The valuation metrics still support much higher prices. It seems that whatever selling is following the old SA article with the conservative present value as $20 if ACAD goes it alone and gets no rev from Alzh or any other off-label use, and a very low $7k/patient/year to ACAD. That's a barebones low limit, and the more recent $27 is even too conservative, as it assumes the revs from all will not really get into high gear until 2023. Makes no sense as FDA approval is expected in late '14 or early '15 and before that I expect the results of the Ph II on Alzheimer's will have headlines. The mode of action suggests strongly that it'll be successful. The safety profile is the key, and is why this is such a strong shoe-in for approval.
I scratched my head on this article for the following reason - with the approval likely in '15, why is he waiting till '23 before figuring sales of 4.5B. There's no reason to expect that this drug will not be widely prescribed both on and off label immediately. Remember, there's no treatment for Parkinson's psychosis, no competion. By putting sales 8 years into the future and then discounting at 20%/year backwards to 2013 now, that's how you get a very low valuation of $27. Makes no sense. The ~$80 valuation makes much more sense.
I'll note there was an SA article a month or so ago which ONLY looked at Parkinson's patients and assumed only a minority share of the market, and still got a valuation of $20-21 if ACAD wasn't bought out and they did it alone, and $29 if they were bought out. Those assumptions seem extremely conservative to say the very least. Ridiculously so. But at least we may be testing that floor successfully lately.
see p. 5 of the transcript on SA, if you're interested....
looks like total market program profit-taking as we hit the 5-day moving average. It's a typical place for short term trading to happen around. Today's it's overhead resistance. Probably we'll go on through north, NDX that is. Who knows what ACAD will do. There seem to be too few long term people to keep the price heading towards where it belongs. Biotech mindless selling, people lumping ACAD in with other small cap speculative stocks, not realizing that ACAD has the strongest safety and strongest effectiveness profile and is done with phase 3 already - the odds are so high, and the prospects are so high... it just makes no sense that we're still in the low 20's.
As for the ER transcript, it was too bad they didn't get better speakers. For example, clearly the questioners were worried about inadequate disclosure about the long tail ECG data. What they SHOULD have said was this - "the data showed the QT on ECG's increase of 7-9ms, compared to a standard typical length of this part of the ECG of 430ms. So, this is only ~1/60 change in the QT length, which is completely lost in the noise of ECG's and has no clinical meaning. Only if QT increases substantially might it have significance for heart function. " Instead, Hacksell waffled around without being quantitative and clear, and this justifiably only makes for suspicion and worry. I wonder if that is still worrying some investors.
I'm already in, but for those who are considering, it's got insider buying, and is at the moment in a no-news period which just frustrates the mo-mo's. But notice the higher volume days are rally days, and days like today are weak volume. There's nothing driving the price down except people looking to hop on something going north on a market positive day like today. Longs, don't be a sucker and sell at the bottom. Support at 4.5, which we may hit later today and likely bounce.
The 20 print in AH was nice to see, as it gives a classic completion of the successful re-test of the initial Cramer Lemming sell-off from 29 a month ago. Gap's filled, low volume retest on a good ER, and it's possible even that institutional quant bots will see this classic pattern and goose the buying from here. Either way, I hope this selling is over. Only if the news remains good and the price gets into the high teens will I be tempted to buy more. I've got plenty of shares and will just sit tight if we stay in the 20's and hopefully head north again.
Right. They're moving quickly.
I'll venture an opinion on the interesting last few days...
1. Risk appetite in general has taken a hit lately as stronger econ data brings taper talk back, and rising int rates
2. That hit biotech, especially today. General computer programs selling stocks like ACAD w/ no earnings and high share price, also hitting solars, specTechs, TSLA... the list goes on and on
3. Cramer Lemmings piling out before ER (so long, and thanks for the cheap shares).
4. worry, perhaps, over the prospect of the ER being a convenient time to announce a secondary stock offering. Which, of course we know now, did not happen. If it did happen, it still would not be an argument for selling at 20,21. The share price shows every prospect of being worth several times more, even with reasonably conservative future estimates
5. The recent penalty on another biotech for advertising their anti-psychotic drug when it was not yet approved for that disease. Not really news, as the law's been clear for a very long time. ACAD needs to be sure they only advertise for Parkinson's until they finish their studies and cleared for Azh etc. It does NOT mean that doctors can't prescribe off-label and they certainly will, with such a stellar safety and effectiveness profile.
Bottom line: Long is still the call. I'm in and will be patient.
What am I missing here? I'm new to this board, looking for oppotunities. I don't understand why this stock is trading so low - anyone?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Let's see.... market cap at the close was $141M, and the deal is worth over $500M to CYTX. And the stock at this moment is trading at $3?? Something is wrong here.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I look at it this way - either these automatic sales were 'lucky' in that they happened during a localized bubble from 21 to 29 through automatic programmed selling, or they reflect deliberate selling because of a localized bubble from 21 to 29, which is good trading IF you know that there's no news on the very near horizon. Selling into a bubble has hopes of driving nervous retail investors below the actual long term trend and scooping them back up. Imagine what news of more insider buying would do. We might find out, if the price goes down to 19 again. For now, it looks to be right on the trend line set before the Cramer Lemmings piled in, consistent with slow accumulation before later news. I'll just have to be patient - so far there is no ACTUAL biotechnical news to worry about.
I don't expect any revelations during the earnings this week, but will not be surprised to see nervous selling today and tomorrow.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Wow. Just pulled up the chart out of curiosity. That's the worst "all data" chart I have ever seen! A straight plummet to near 0. I suspect this recent report is just a pump to help the last survivors get out before THE END. $2/share loss - I suppose you can consider it a call option. Don't spend more than a dinner+movie money on it.
Agreed. It was the most carefully quantitatively accurate piece of work on ACAD that I've yet seen. I stand corrected on thinking the stock was fair valued in the $30-$50 range. It's much higher. Looking at the past month or so, I think there is a concerted effort to wrest shares from retail investors and into institutions before the future of this little company multiplies. We held the 21.6 support level today and have bounced almost 5% above now. I expect it'll hold. However, there may be those trying to again wrest shares from you by claiming "inside info" on a secondary offering or other neg news before the ER next week. We may have to retest a few more times in the coming few days.
So, be prepared, and if necessary just go'away and wait if you're subject to panic attacks.
The market prices in what it can see clearly - SPWR has always been conservative, and as clarity improves it is updating FY13 to $1.40 vs old $1.23, the rest is noise. It's a fast gowing company, and the profit taking in the past hour is disturbing, but I suppose not unexpected. This drop below $30 momentarily was a gift horse. Absurd, given the near and long term prospects. It's the dominant player in a market that will BURY oil as the world wakes up. Take advantage here in the $31 range.
Guidance is everything, and mid of range for '13 has gone from $1.23 now to $1.40 - this is big. 14% increase in future near term future earnings shows the growth is real, worth the increase in stock price. $33/1.4 is a PE of 23.5 and a PEG under one. So don't let the bashers whine about it!