This is 3.6% from here.
Pull up a 3 year historical pricing excel of AAPL. Count how many times it rallied 3.6% (you can include earnings if you want) and report back to us. I dont think it will be more than 10 times. What makes you think we'll rally this much after rallying 2.5% today?
I think whats important to note is that AAPL follows the overall market more than we interpret.
The market is in bear mode now, and AAPL (best of breed, hands down, possibly even the best investment IN THE WORLD) will go down with the market.
My estimate: DOW 10,000.
I agree with you on the buy backs. I remember when aapl was struggling to break 495 last 2 Octobers ago, Tim Cook came out after hours and said "were buying back stock agressively", and the stock bounced hard the next day. We knew why it wasnt breaking that 490 lvl, AAPL was purchasing! I think the buy level today is 110 however. So selling the 110/100 put spread could be a VERY safe investment (January to get the highest premium)
C&H started the day AAPL was selected for the Dow and ended half way today.
Today was an overshot to the downside for a C&H but we shall see. I still think 120s are on tap, (followed by 118 overshot is possible, which will be a GREAT buying point), and is buyable.
No way. I think the Watch will do great actually. I just dont think there is anything for AAPL short term. Next rally IMO, will be July.
Strong $ will hurt a lot of earnings this season, especially AAPL. I think AAPL trades between -3% and -5% post earnings. I will be exiting all my calls before the next ER, into strength.
I think we test 120, if this breaks, there should be HEAVY buying at 118 then 115. Those are key pivot levels. I would be a strong buyer at 118 personally, then more at 110.
Remember = the last time AAPL rallied to highs ('12), it sold of 25%. 25% from 133 is 106.