Where Is Amarin Really? 0 comments
May 15, 2013 12:12 PM | about stocks: AMRN
I have been following AMRN and have been involved in the Company since May 2010 and I wanted to fully breakdown the "REAL" picture of Amarin and it's stock.
Back in 2010 Amarin as a company didn't have much. The Company only had 1 drug AMR-101 and it was still in trials. In November 2010 Amarin announced positive Phase 3 Marine SPA Trial Data causing AMRN stock to jump to the $6 level (a double from where stock was previous). Over the next few months the stock traded between the levels of $6-$8 per share before Institutions got involved through a Private offering with Amarin in January 2011 in the $7 stock range.
In April of 2011 Amarin then released more positive Phase 3 SPA data for the ANCHOR Indication (a 10x's larger market). That news caused AMRN stock to double again and open at $15 per share.
The reason I bring this all to the surface is simple. AMRN at that time had NOTHING in terms of an FDA approved drug, NO Insurance Coverage, NO Patent Coverage and No suppliers. Now let's take a look at what milestones Amarin has accomplished until now....
- Vascepa FDA approval for Marine Indication
- 22 Patents Issued and Allowed
- 4 Top Suppliers & Manufacturers to produce and ship Vascepa
- Tier 2 Insurance after only 2 months of drug launch
- Early sNDA Acceptance ANCHOR Market & PDUFA Dec 20, 2013
- 100% Month to Month Script Growth (Done by themselves)
- ONLY Omega-3 Drug to Treat ANCHOR Market
- ONLY Omega-3 Drug that can Combine with a Statin
This company continues to come out with positive news, and whether Evidence Based Proven Data that shows Vascepa is a superior drug in a class and market of it's own or the 22 Patents which is 10 times more then their competitor Lovaza that only has 3 Patents, yet there is a constant attack on Amarin.
In my opinion there are many key milestones that have been accomplished in 2013 alone (Launch, Patents, Tier 2, etc.) that have NOT been valued into AMRN's stock price. If you look at the whole picture Amarin's stock is trading at the same level it was back in 2010 when they announced the Marine Data. At that time Amarin had NO FDA approved drug, No Patents, No Insurance and NO data and sNDA acceptance for ANCHOR, so how can Wall Street and certain investors, journalists etc., really value this company down here?
Not to mention the Big Name and More Reputable Institutions like Jefferies, JP Morgan, Leerink Swan, Canaccord and Citi have Price Targets from $13-$39, with an average PT of $17.65 however, these go overlooked and pushed to the side.
In conclusion you can make all the speculation you want around NCE, but with the Patent Portfolio that AMRN has built up and the FACT that Vascepa will be the 1st ever drug to enter the ANCHOR Market, NCE clearly does not justify why AMRN should be trading at the $7-$8 range. In my opinion AMRN is very undervalued at this level and hopefully the continued week to week and month to month script growth as well as the upcoming Combo-Statin Data will help get AMRN stock to a level of true valuation before the drug Launches in the ANCHOR Market and/or Partners up with a Big Pharma.
Citi note on AMRN
Amarin Corporation (AMRN)
1Q:13 Earnings Preview; Lowering Our Vascepa Estimates
? Conclusion(s) – AMRN is reporting 1Q:13 earnings next Thursday after the close. We
are lowering our 1Q:13 and 2013 Vascepa estimates to reflect a moderated early ramp
for the drug. While the Vascepa launch is basically in-line or ahead of Lovaza’s initial
market launch, it appears slower than our initial expectations. Given the numerous
variables in the initial quarters of the drug launch including sampling, stocking and
cycles of patients transition from other drugs, we view the sales during the 2H:13 will
be more telling of the true underlying demand for Vascepa. Our long-term view of the
commercial opportunity for Vascepa remains unchanged, maintain TP $13.
Hi Zoo and others--
I agree with your sentiment and also have a sizable investment in AMRN, but wanted to get your opinion on what akanz repeatedly insists (at nauseum) on--the point that cardiologists will not prescribe this in the "not-so-high" triglyceride group without outcome data.
What's your take on that?
$AMRN Kaiser said just listed. Not approved yet through formulary committee. I don t even think I could get it if I asked my doctor.
Can someone comment on the recent post by hardtop who claims:
"you all are so clueless about development and prescribing patterns. They are developing only the rosuvastatin combination and only as a concept. You have to have the dose of the statin split over 4 capsules. Guess what: no compliance. Therefore, you lose the efficacy of the statin to drive the LDL to goal. So.... #1 FDA won't approve it, #2, as a physician I want to use the statin of choice for my patients #3 the payers will expect IF it could be developed( there is a big if there) that the statin would be free. Therefore no market for this"
Does anyone here care about your real estate career? If you want to take akanz out on a date, why don't you do it offline?
Nobody gives a flying f*** akanz (bozo) about your repetitive posts! We got it--you have terrible Kaiser insurance and know 3 Cardiologists that would recommend patients order a non-FDA approved medication to control their triglycerides rather than Vascepa.
If you're raking in the money from your construction business, why don't you try getting better insurance!
that's the point of contention
Thanks-That makes sense. So free scripts are given in the office along with a prescription for future use. Once the 30 mo. supply is finished, patient goes to the pharmacy and obtains a refill--at this point, the script is on its way to be recorded in the IMs database--right?
Given all the expertise on this board, it seems that there is no consensus on this important question??
I don't care of SR has to say!