bounce back today off the lows today largely comes from some shorts coming in to lock up some profits. Expect stock price to continue lower when downgrades come in and competitors cut their dividends coupled with no real good news to merit a significant rebound.
dividend will be first cut to $.75 per quarter and then $.50 per quarter, stock will drop to $15-18 range, good buy there particularly if it looks like oil stabilizes as well as gas, prospect of Iran flooding the market with oil will hammer frac sand sellers and their customers. Smaller customers will have their assets in hands of bigger oil and these guys will be tough to negotiate with. Also, bigger players won't need to frac and sell their oil and gas at marginal prices to survive - this means sand guys will have to compete harder on price/volumes with each other.
pure chartists need to consider fundamentals for this industry -HCLP just cut its dividend, demand not rising, too much capacity added, prices falling, customers cutting back on drilling, smaller customers are cash strapped and seeking and getting contract concessions, earnings will fall, current dividend not justified by earnings projections or cash flow, prudence dictates cutting dividend and using cash later, since competitor cut its dividend it would be easy for them to do it w/o unreasonable drop in stock price, etc.