As a former shareholder, it is obvious that Ariad is a one trick pony - the pony being Inclusig - albeit that the pony is being tried for several indications. However, if the basic compound causes high rates of stroke and heart problems, mostly from clotting, it is difficult to believe that the other indications have a chance of getting off the ground - particularly since there is actual and potential competitive compounds from reputable pharma companies. It is true that Ariad has some cash, but with Inclusig only approved from a small indication and that the FDA has now even suspended that, income will be nil and cash flow awful with nothing in the bullpen.. No real upside to make people want to own this.
Last month Ariad reported toxicity problems in its only other developmental compound. Let's hope things don't run in threes for Ariad's sake. There is plenty of competition, current and in development, for all the indications that Ariad is pursuing - toxicity is a huge problem for physicians with alternatives, particularly if Ariad is seeking to move ahead of other compounds in first line treatments.
Note also that at the end of Sept. Ariad also reported that it was experiencing toxicity issues for its other investigational compound used in lung cancers. Bad news runs in threes? Another shoe to drop? Lots of current and upcoming competition in CML :and other targets for Ariad -- which magnifies the toxicity questions. Let's see how management tries to explain it away.