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Cimatron Ltd. Message Board

ripvanwinkle2061 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2014 10:56 PM Member since: Oct 12, 2011
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  • ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 22, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    I have a nice position in HGT but put some reasoning behind your post.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My Thoughts-Hold

    by newbreed_investor Jul 2, 2014 8:47 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    What is the def of NPV wanttruth?

  • ripvanwinkle2061 by ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    Overview:
    (For the Week Ending Wednesday, July 9, 2014)
    Natural gas prices decreased during the report week (Wednesday, July 2 — Wednesday, July 9) at most market locations for the third week in a row. The Henry Hub spot price decreased from $4.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $4.15/MMBtu yesterday.
    At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the August 2014 contract began the report week on July 2 at $4.357/MMBtu, decreasing to $4.170/MMBtu by the end of trading yesterday, an 18.7-cent/MMBtu decline. The price of the 12-month strip also decreased, from $4.289/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.152/MMBtu yesterday.
    Working natural gas in storage rose to 2,022 Bcf as of Friday, July 4, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). A net increase in storage of 93 Bcf for the week resulted in storage levels 24.4% below year-ago levels and 27.6% below the 5-year average.
    The Baker Hughes rotary rig count increased week-over-week by 1 rig, to 1,874 as of July 3. The number of active natural gas-directed rigs decreased by 3, after increasing the previous two weeks. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 4, with 7 oil-directed rigs added in the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, where six formations have contributed to a surge in crude oil production, and a 3—rig decrease in the rest of the United States. The number of oil—directed rigs has increased by 184 in the past 6 months, from 1,378 on January 3, to 1,562 on July 3, while the number of gas—directed rigs has decreased by 61 over this period, from 372 to 311.
    The average daily Mont Belvieu, Texas, natural gas plant liquids composite price for the week covering June 30 to July 4 decreased by 20 cents/MMBtu (1.9%) compared to last week (June 23—27), to $9.99/MMBtu. Prices declined for propane, butane, isobutene, and natural gasoline, by 2.6%, 1.5%, 2.1%, and 2.3%, respectively. The ethane price increased by 0.4%.
    more summary data

    Prices/Demand/Supply:
    Prices decrease throughout the country. The average daily Henry Hub spot price continually decreased during the report week, from $4.39/MMBtu on July 2 to $4.15/MMBtu yesterday, its lowest point in 7 months, as temperatures cooled. Prices at most other locations in the United States also decreased through the report week.

    Northeast prices drop significantly. While prices in most markets decreased gradually over the report week, average daily natural gas spot prices in New England, New York, and the Mid-Atlantic dropped significantly Thursday before a temperate Independence Day weekend. On Monday prices recovered, before declining again through Tuesday and yesterday.

    At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the spot price was $3.11/MMBtu last Thursday. The average spot prices at Transco Zone 6-New York and at Tetco-M3, which serves consumers in the Mid-Atlantic, both decreased on that day to their lowest levels in more than two years, to $2.36/MMBtu and $2.42/MMBtu, respectively. The spot prices in these locations reflected mild holiday weekend temperatures in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, which caused demand for gas used for electric generation (power burn) to decrease.

    Nymex decreases this week. The price of the August 2014 natural gas futures contract began the report week on July 2 by settling at $4.357/MMBtu. It traded up to $4.406/MMBtu last Thursday, before decreasing by 18.1 cents/MMBtu, to $4.225/MMBtu on Monday. The August 2014 price continued to decrease through yesterday, when it settled at $4.170/MMBtu.

    Production decrease drives total supply decline. Average total supply decreased this week to 73.2 Bcf/d, 0.3 Bcf/d (0.4%) below last week's record average of 73.5 Bcf/d. This ended three consecutive weeks of increases in total U.S. supply. Dry production decreased to 68.4 Bcf/d, 0.2 Bcf/d (0.3%) below last week's record average of 68.5 Bcf/d. Dry production reached its third highest recorded level on July 4, of 68.6 Bcf, before declining through yesterday. Average net pipeline imports from Canada decreased slightly, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout increased slightly.

    Consumption decreases due to lower power burn. Total U.S. natural gas consumption averaged 58.7 Bcf/d this week, 1.5 Bcf/d (2.3%) lower than last week. There was a corresponding decline in power burn of 1.6 Bcf/d (5.9%), with the average power burn for the week averaging 25.5 Bcf/d. The Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast regions registered decreases of 0.6 Bcf/d, 0.7 Bcf/d, and 0.8 Bcf/d, respectively, as temperatures cooled into the 60s and 70s in these regions through the weekend. This was partially offset by smaller power burn increases in regions farther west. Industrial consumption and net pipeline exports to Mexico both increased slightly over last week's average.

    more price data

    Storage
    Inventory build is greater than average. The net injection reported for the week ending July 4 was 93 Bcf, 21 Bcf larger than the 5-year average net injection of 72 Bcf and 13 Bcf larger than last year's net injection of 80 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 2,022 Bcf, 653 Bcf (24.4%) less than last year at this time, and 769 Bcf (27.6%) below the 5-year (2009-13) average.

    Storage build is higher than market expectations. Market expectations called for a build of 91 Bcf. When the EIA storage report was released at 10:30 a.m., the price for the August natural gas futures contract decreased 5 cents to $4.11/MMBtu on the Nymex.

    From the week ending on April 4 to the week ending on July 4, net storage injections have totaled 1,200 Bcf, versus 975 Bcf for the same 14 weeks in 2013, and 977 Bcf for these weeks between 2009 and 2013, on average. The average unit value of what storage holders put into storage from April 4 to July 4 was $4.58/MMBtu, 16% higher than the average value for the same 14 weeks last year of $3.96/MMBtu. The highest winter-month Nymex price (for the January 2015 contract) in trading for the week ending on July 4 averaged $4.55/MMBtu. This was 14 cents more than the current Nymex August contract price. A year ago, the difference was 25 cents/MMBtu.

    There are currently 17 more weeks in the injection season, which traditionally occurs April 1 through October 31, although, in many years, injections continue into November. EIA forecasts that the end-of-October working natural gas inventory level will be 3,431 Bcf, which, as of July 4, would require an average injection of 83 Bcf per week through the end of October. EIA's forecast for the end-of-October inventory levels are below the 5-year (2009-13) average value of 3,837 Bcf. To reach the 5-year average by October 31, average weekly injections through the end of October would need to be 107 Bcf.

    All three regions post larger-than-average builds. The East, West, and Producing regions had net injections of 56 Bcf (7 Bcf larger than its 5-year average injection), 14 Bcf (5 Bcf larger than its 5-year average injection), and 23 Bcf (9 Bcf larger than its 5-year average injection), respectively. Storage levels for all three regions remain below their year-ago and 5-year average levels.

    Temperatures during the storage report week were warmer than normal. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 75.7 degrees for the week, 1.9 degree warmer than the 30-year normal temperature and 0.1 degree cooler than during the same period last year.

  • Reply to

    Headed Below $10

    by wanttruthinvestor Jul 16, 2014 2:58 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    So if you think HGT is over valued what do think looks good out there that isn't over valued with a safe pay out? Just curious.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Div Question

    by drysocket5 Jul 15, 2014 10:35 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 11:02 PM Flag

    They won a law suit and had a large pay out because of it. The stock is back to a little over 9 cents a unit a month now which gives it a yield of about 11.3%. a year if the pay out stays at this level.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Headed Below $10

    by wanttruthinvestor Jul 16, 2014 2:58 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    The U.S. is suppose to start exporting this fall. What will that do to prices. Just a thought.

  • Reply to

    Life of Trust

    by ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 15, 2014 1:19 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    The trust figures 13 years.

  • Reply to

    When Will The Next Pay Out Be Announced?

    by wanttruthinvestor Jul 10, 2014 11:01 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 16, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    I bought in the $8 dollar range so I'm safe for awhile and can ride the volatility. Thanks for thinking of me though.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    When Will The Next Pay Out Be Announced?

    by wanttruthinvestor Jul 10, 2014 11:01 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 15, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    It was today. Over 9 cents. I enjoy getting those over $ 1K a month checks. Helps supplement the pension checks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • ripvanwinkle2061 by ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 15, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    Does anybody know the projected life of the trust. I know its a moving figure and changes with technology but what is the current life expected at this time? Thanks in advance.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sham Gad On Real Money...Cramer's site

    by citiccgirl Jul 3, 2014 10:13 AM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jul 4, 2014 1:22 AM Flag

    I would be interested in that myself seeing how the stock is going to be put to me which is ok with me.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • ripvanwinkle2061 by ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 28, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    On May 2, 2014, in Uncategorized, by admin
    0
    Environmental Protection Agency policies resulting in the shutdown of coal-fired power plants will contribute to a 150 percent price hike for natural gas

    Natural gas prices will increase 150 percent over 2012 levels

    MATS is one of the costliest EPA regulations ever crafted, costing about $10.2 billion annually. The rule aims to lower mercury emissions and other pollutants from coal plants, but the regulation is resulting in the shuttering of hundreds of coal plants across the country.

    EIA says that 50 gigawatts, of the U.S. coal fleet is set to be taken offline 90 percent of these shutdowns will occur before 2016 when MATS goes into full effect. But as coal plants are shuttered, they will primarily be replaced with natural gas-fired power plants and some renewable generation. Generating more power from gas means that the price will go up from today’s low levels to much higher levels in the coming decades. This will also drive electricity prices skyward.

    “The rising use of natural gas in the electric power sector results in price increases for both natural gas and electricity in all sectors,” EIA says

    But it’s not only higher prices that Americans should be worried about, as retiring coal plants means the U.S. will be generating less power overall because coal provides most of the baseload power in the country. EIA notes that “removing coal capacity results in lower overall levels of generation.”
    Federal energy regulators are worried that MATS could lead to “rolling blackouts” across the country because of premature coal retirements.

    “We’re closing an enormous amount of coal generation, through a variety of rules, and a good number of those plants are set to retire next April,”Federal Energy Regulatory Commission commissioner Philip Moeller

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Closed under $11.

    by wanttruthinvestor Jun 27, 2014 7:02 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 27, 2014 10:29 PM Flag

    The average volume for Hugoton Royalty has been 338,700 shares per day over the past 30 days. Hugoton Royalty has a market cap of $459.2 million and is part of the energy industry. Shares are up 49.7% year-to-date as of the close of trading on Tuesday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ripvanwinkle2061 by ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 27, 2014 10:26 PM Flag

    Looks like they increased the dividend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Closed under $11.

    by wanttruthinvestor Jun 27, 2014 7:02 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 27, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    You don't explain why you feel its over valued. Its(dividend) is still over 9 cents a month which comes out to a yield of over 101/2 percent. So once again explain how you figure its over valued. I might add the law suit is over now and was ruled in their favor so the dividend is back where it should be. I also have read where they are expecting another winter this coming year like last years which in its self should put upward pressure on gas prices. I believe I heard inventories were down but don't quote me on that. Maybe somebody else can confirm that. This doesn't even take into account that the government just approved LNG for export. So short away all you want but I will probably add more myself.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ripvanwinkle2061 by ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 13, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    I have their cell phone service and never seem to get my messages in a timely manner. I might get them a week after the call. I have been with Verizon for years and have invested in the stock off and on over the years. I went with them because they had the best coverage although not the cheapest and they had union employees and I wanted to make sure my money being spent helped provide a decent wage for a worker some where. Well it seems all of the reasons for having their service are disappearing. Poor service ( just spent 35 min. on hold waiting customer service) because of poor phone service in the first place and I believe I also read where they were cutting their employees wages and benefits while giving more to their CEO and CFO. I also have their cable service but might be changing all if things don't improve. Just a thought here.

  • ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 13, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    Or before he sells it. The time to buy is before or right after he buys.

  • Reply to

    Down Another 2.64% Today

    by wanttruthinvestor Jun 2, 2014 4:09 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 12, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    How is that short working out for you??? Not well I see with more pain to come. I will be thinking about you while collecting over $3 k in dividends tomorrow. Have a GREAT DAY!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When are we getting paid the settlement dividend?

    by pes1942 May 17, 2014 1:46 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 12, 2014 6:13 PM Flag

    Tomorrow

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You Will See a Big Drop Next Week

    by wanttruthinvestor Jun 12, 2014 3:26 PM
    ripvanwinkle2061 ripvanwinkle2061 Jun 12, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    I think most people know the .26 cents is a one time gain from the law suit so its not like it will be a big surprise. If it is these people should not be investing on their own anyways. Also if you haven't noticed Nat. Gas prices are moving up. Stay Long and be Strong if you like making money. If not sell and cry later. The problems in Iraq could be another to add pressure to the upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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