Well, apparently I'm the only one who thinks the numbers looked damn good, although as I've posted before the current PPS in the $90's is looking overvalued at this point. I think we'll see some nice buying opportunities in the months ahead. Management holds too much of the stock and the future is looking too bright to expect a sale to GE or anyone like that right now. I'm sure there is interest, but IPGP hasn't reached its full potential, which is likely many years away. GLTA!
While management was pretty positive on the last cc, I don't expect as good a quarter as last time (no 25% revenue growth!). Should come in closer to the analyst estimates. Anyone noticing the analysts seem to be setting the bar higher than they ever did before for IPGP? Any thoughts out there?
Yes, IPGP is involved in these weapons tests and on the cc's and filings they've talked about other neat applications like well drilling, 3D printing, paint stripping, etc. I still think all these are somewhat in their infancy and won't be the main revenue drivers for IPGP in the near to intermediate future.
While it's not as sexy to talk about as laser weapons, they've really revolutionized the use of industrial lasers for cutting, welding, etc. 20 years ago you'd only find lasers in the most advanced manufacturing settings and all of the earlier models were CO2 and YAG lasers that were clunky to work with and expensive. Fiber lasers have really changed all that and you can now find them everywhere. Even places that have used electrical or mechanical cutting and welding tools for the last 70 years, like the major auto or appliance makers, are switching over to fiber lasers because they are cheaper and better and the advanced metals they are using cannot be cut or welded any other way. There is ALOT more money to be made in industrial applications than the more exotic ones like laser weapons in the next 10 years.
You hit the nail on the head. I laughed when I saw the recent press releases ending the dividend and shaking up the Board. None of this will make any difference without a solid product strategy. So far, this new CEO Grady doesn't have one. They are retreating into 10 year old systems with low margins because they lack the know-how and capital to develop new technologies. They can reshuffle all they want, but it won't make a difference.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Happy to see it go up, but I think the valuation is getting a little ahead of itself here. Seems like a buyout or dividend is already being priced in, but I don't see that in the near term. I'm holding for now, but will be a buyer under $90.
I agree that this is an exciting time for the laser sector and that stock selection is key. IIVI did have a good run, but the last couple years have been rough. Too many acquisitions, too much debt, too much focus on commodity materials, and very dependent on military budgets (~20% of revenues). Overly diversified to the point that one segment doing poorly can drag down the others doing well. Maybe better times are ahead, but I just don't have the confidence to invest in IIVI.
IPGP has been doing great. I see nothing but positive things there in the near to intermediate term. NEWP is my other holding, but I'm not adding at this point. I'm waiting to see what the near term hold for them.
I would not own RSTI. They've been running in place for years and I have no faith in management. They've been unable to make significant headway in fiber lasers IMO and IPGP is eating their lunch in high power.
I used to own COHR, but sold off a few years ago in the mid $50's after it doubled. I've been keeping an eye on it, but it is very dependent on the display market. GSIG is my least favorite of the one's you mention. Another example of a laser company that lost it's way through diversification. First, semiconductor systems and now medical components with no focus on their laser division.
Please don't get me wrong; I do like NEWP. Solid products and management and the financials are good, but revenue growth has been tepid lately and I think management could be doing more for shareholders, especially with the buyback. I'll be patient for now. I would not own RSTI.
I've never been a holder of IIVI, but was tempted when it was trading below $14. Even then, I preferred to invest in IPGP and NEWP because their business models and end markets are easier to understand and I felt they have more upside. I've looked at IIVI at $12.50 and again now around $17 and still can't get comfortable enough to buy. IIVI is just a holding company for a motley bunch of small photonics businesses serving every end market under the sun; all acquired with debt. No focus on any one area to be a leader. Over $200M in debt on less than $400M in revenue. I just don't see the growth opportunity and don't like the financials. Better opportunities elsewhere IMHO.
I'm still a holder, but NEWP hasn't been shooting the lights out the last couple years despite all of the acquisitions they made a few years ago. Even with the more recent V-GEN and FEMTOLASERS acquisitions, they give a lukewarm $147-$154M Q1 guidance. They should easily be doing over $160M per quarter! They are even more timid with their stock buyback. They've only bought back a measly 567,000 shares out of 3.9M authorized. They should have bought back at least 1 or 2 million shares given where the stock has been trading. Why can't they be as aggressive with the buyback as they are with the acquisitions?! Here's to a better 2015!
Incredibly strong quarter based on the pre-announcement. $1.06-1.07 diluted EPS would mean GAAP gross margin over 55% and net income over 27%. I've followed the laser industry for around 15 years and nobody has ever put up numbers like that on $207 million in revenue. Just amazing!
I'm in it for the long haul with IPGP so I'll hold on for now, but if I was looking for a quick profit and had bought around $75 not long ago, I'd sell at this point (~$85). I don't see much upside in the next few months at this PPS. For you longs, hang in there for $100/sh within 2-3 years.