Short term thinking vs long term thinking?
World consumption will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.5 percent, this year to a record 92.7 million a day, or about 95,000 a day more than forecast last month, according to the IEA, a Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations. Thats an EXXI + EPL up in smoke every 3 days or so. Food for thought.
that would be a sight for sore eyes. Cut well costs a bit more, redirect permian capex, monetize SWD in some fashion, lower current cost of capital, add a few rigs & prove out the core expansion in both acres & benches... doable potentially. will be interesting to see what realized oil & gas prices are in '16. Wat's B/E on the underwater CO2 deal? $5-6? Would be nice to see that stop being a drain on resources. Lots of moving parts to get there.
That was an interesting question/statement by tpg-axon. bennett commented that the forecast seems to be in-line. so say 120 mboe/day as a midpoint to that range, at what roughly 50% liquids/50% gas... whats a reasonable price per flowing barrel? 50k? 75k? 100k? Recent comps? Haircut on that?
yup: Item 8.01. Other Events
On February 5, 2014, the Company's board of directors voted to terminate the Company's Rights Plan (i.e., its "poison pill"), dated as of January 31, 1996 (as amended as of January 31, 2006) by and between the Company and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (successor to Norwest Bank Minnesota, N.A.). As a result of this decision, the Board approved an amendment to the Rights Agreement (the "Amendment") that will have the effect of terminating the poison pill. The Amendment when fully executed will change the definition of Final Expiration Date to March 7, 2014, to accelerate the expiration of the Rights Agreement, which was scheduled to expire on January 31, 2016.
We continue to believe that a high level of activity in the GOM will be the driver of the stock while the Company’s international fleet provides a solid base for earnings. We reiterate our Sector Outperform rating and $11 price target. HW.
"Mr. Cooperman may be deemed the beneficial owner of 41,532,663 Shares" as of 12/31 per 13g/a
look at that volume spike last 15 min right around $22 support after HS chart completed. man, the retail does not control this stock. All pros. if it holds, $25-26 zone at neckline/midpoint neck/right shoulder would be next stop if up. H&S pattern was slightly upsloping. If fails here... not sure next stop. this market action, combined with the exxi chart sets up friday to be pretty interesting, imo.
i think we'll be seeing some energy space consolidation, esp in the thrown out with the bathwater GOM operators. Good sign to see some of these holders with large stakes like Wells, Coop, Fir tree, Mt Kellett, Perry, etc., as well as private equity backed operators getting more involved in the GOM. Stacked deck imo.
that well would have to kick off a lot of liquids for a 3.6% royalty to = $13mm, no? over 350mm gross? at anywhere from what, 35-45/bbl or NGLs? 24k bbls a day of so, if my math is right?
Really, and activist taking another stake in the drilling/production equipment space? No way. Who would have guessed...
Cameron International (CAM +3.1%) is attributable to news that JANA Partners has taken a stake in the oilfield equipment company, according to the hedge fund's investor letter.
Maybe an interesting time for an activist to get involved. Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 6.5, single dig P/E, dayrates growing still, and a shareholder base that might be receptive to a proxy or a deal or some sort.
The stuff I think about, very simply stated, not solved by any means: The world is moving fast to 95 million barrels a day. That's almost 35bb barrels a yr. the upgraded Bakken "technically recoverable" estimate, for example, is about 7.4bb, or in other words, not quite 3 MONTHS of world demand. Will we find more oil? Sure, but it will likely cost ever more to get & develop. Canada oil sands are massive, but as of today's technology we don't even consider 10% "recoverable." And even if you assume no growth in demand, will we find enough every year to replace 95mm barrels a day (90? 80?...how about 100?) indefinitely? That's a higher hurdle...
How many people out there drive battery or nat gas cars? Fly in a battery powered plane? They cant even figure out how to use a few lithiums on a plane yet! $3 gasoline isn't much of an incentive to switch to algae or NG or whatever else is currently available. Just saying...... In 10 years we'll burn probably 400bb barrels of oil or so, or = to the TOTAL recoverable reserve estimates of Iran, Iraq and Kuwait combined, as of the 2011 world estimates. Gone forever. 5 more years will burn almost all of Saudi Arabia's stated recoverable reserves in the same report. And we'll have close to 8bb people on this planet. How many of you will be driving battery or nat gas cars 10 yrs from now? What do you think they will cost? Will Chinese, Indians, Indonesians etc be buying Prius' or locally made small but inefficient gas burners? The bicycle is already fast giving way to the 2 cycle scooter. I find this pretty interesting.
“Most people in China don’t have cars and they want cars,” Parry said. “A huge proportion of China’s population hasn’t ever flown on an airplane. It’s a huge population that currently consumes a tiny proportion of oil per head compared to the U.S.”