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Noble Energy, Inc. Message Board

riskonriskoff 85 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 4:40 PM Member since: Feb 1, 2013
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  • riskonriskoff by riskonriskoff Jan 23, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Sanchez Energy Corporation Commences Exchange Offer For Senior Notes Due 2023

    "The New Notes will have terms that are identical in all material respects to the terms of the Old Notes, except that the New Notes will be registered under the Act and will not have any of the transfer restrictions, registration rights or additional interest relating to the Old Notes. Sanchez Energy will not receive any proceeds for the exchange offer. "

  • Reply to

    General decline in Eagle Ford IPs?

    by stuartcreekfarms Jan 23, 2015 7:35 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 23, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    PVA - 13G Nokomis Capital 6% / 4.3mm sh

  • Reply to

    just got a filing alert, fwiw

    by riskonriskoff Jan 15, 2015 3:44 PM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 16, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    it's a 13G/A, meaning they already had a position (13G), but it has since changed. Not a "new" position, but they added to it. Search the SEC filings page for 13G or 13G/A to see all the filings. They are bigger than Soros, in aggregate, funds, etf's, other accounts.... We'll see if any more new filings show up.

  • riskonriskoff by riskonriskoff Jan 15, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    SC 13G/A BLACKROCK INC. 01/15/2015 6,922,503

  • riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 9, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    by then it would be too late ;) OAS has ranged from $58 to $10.7 in about 6 months - in my book, that's already a meltdown. Cycles are as old as time ~ zig when others zag, and enjoy the ride.

  • riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 9, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    That post doesn't make sense. To my knowledge, they did not do a capital raise or secondary offering, delivering dilution and additional capital to OAS. SPO et al., looks to have bought public equity. They may do so in the future, but doesn't look like it in this case. I would expect they are going to look to other levers as well, like co-investments by PE, similar to what blackstone is doing, selling non core assets that would garner a decent valuation, restructuring some debt & extending maturities where possible, cutting costs with service providers, dropping some assets into MLPs, hi-grading portfolio - pushing only better well design & highest IRR completion zones, cutting G&A, more direct marketing to end users to get spot + pricing, and ...maybe selling out entirely... lots of levers to consider. Shakeouts happen, this is one of them.

  • riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 9, 2015 1:29 PM Flag

    just interesting to see bottom fishing. They run probably over $8bb, so not a massive position notionally, but I like the interest in the sector, and to also get a glimpse of where these hitters are starting to deploy new capital.

  • riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 8, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    sec filing yesterday - 13D amendment. JHS:

    "....Individually, and because of his position as a control person of SPO Advisory Corp., JHS may, pursuant to Rule 13d-3 of the Act, be deemed to be the beneficial owner of 10,111,000 Shares in the aggregate, which constitutes approximately 10.0% of the outstanding Shares."

  • riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 6, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    One observation: since the last low tick in 2009 ~ $40ish, North Dakota has increased production about 1mm bbls/day. Canada oil sands crude & bitumen has grown about the same amount, a bit more I believe, but for ease, lets say 1mm bbls/day increase as well. So you have 2mm new bbls a day from 2 areas that trade at about say $15 discount to WTI currently, give or take. WTI at $48, bakken & western canada select/sour at roughhly what, about $33. So all this "new production" that is pretty much what the amount of surplus in the market is, depending on your source, is trading $6-8 below the last low tick on the long term oil chart? I find that interesting.

  • Reply to

    Oil service companies

    by islandboy379 Jan 5, 2015 9:37 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 5, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    Just look at Civeo to get a sense of worker demand at these oil prices. Circle the wagons time, and reset the production vs price cycle... all this has happened before. I expect these prices, if they hold for a few more months, will materially reset the world production growth line graph. All this talk about Iraq ramping up is a sideline story, and really more to do with inside OPEC politics of market share, relative to the natural decline rates the world sees every year, and how lower oil prices will disincentivize the investment needed to replace that. At the same time, ocean drillers are scrapping rigs as fast as they can light the blow torch. Interesting new world in the last 6 months. The IMF is right - they should be concerned with future investment in oil production falling off.

    What prices are they getting in Canada spot now? $32-33? Bakken, $35-36? Crazy. Bet Harold wishes he kept those hedges... and the Mrs'z.

    "Civeo said the occupancy rate for rooms contracted in Canada has plunged to 35 percent to 40 percent in 2015 from more than 75 percent this year. In Australia, the rate has also dropped to 35 percent to 40 percent from more than 55 percent at the start of the year." Bloomberg News.

    I'm very interested to see the demand for these new oil partnerships being touted in Mexico, after the gov't just raided Pemex's bank account to help the gov't budget. Red flag to me. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

  • riskonriskoff by riskonriskoff Jan 2, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    Holy cow the algos are having fun this week. about 5% range every day.

  • Reply to


    by riskonriskoff Jan 1, 2015 8:00 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 2, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    i still contend that someone larger should wrap up both SN & PVA, and cut the fat. With the new zones, downspacing, etc you are probably looking at about 300+ MMBOE 1P, and prob 2-3x that in 3P, if memory serves. $4bb would prob do it my guess, roughly PVA at 15, SN at 20, or about $13 per boe 1P. Do it stat & get the hedges, and use cash/equity to wipeout debt service drag...

  • Reply to


    by riskonriskoff Jan 1, 2015 8:00 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 2, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    it will be interesting to see over the patch if these talked about 20-30% cost reductions materialize. seems plausible.

  • Reply to


    by riskonriskoff Jan 1, 2015 8:00 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Jan 1, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    "your" is a possessive pronoun, as in: Do they have schools on "your" island?

    "you're" is a contraction of the 2 words, you & are, as in: "You're an idiot."

    Happy New Year :)

  • riskonriskoff by riskonriskoff Jan 1, 2015 8:00 AM Flag

    Not sure if anyone noticed with the holiday, but Sanchez filed 3 very nice IP wells with the RRC in December. Moulton.

  • Reply to

    SorosOwns 8% of company

    by castledoughlas Dec 27, 2014 12:01 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Dec 29, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    look what luxor, fir tree and some insiders just did today at ECR. the oil and gas patch game plan playing out. equity dilution playing out. Im sure some of these big guys are buying the distressed bonds, and looking at follow on equity infusions in companies where they can get good leverage and clean up the balance sheet, collect a sweet coupon, or even a preferred div, while waiting for commodity prices to normalize. good to be the kings.

  • Reply to


    by slikwillhe Dec 24, 2014 9:32 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Dec 24, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    sell the news apparently. brent under $60. is highlander supposed to have any material NG liquids?

  • Reply to


    by slikwillhe Dec 24, 2014 9:32 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Dec 24, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    very very rough pencil on napkin, with that sort of decline curve (eyeball -10%pa) I'd guess you're looking at anywhere from $275mm-325mm in gross revenue over a 10yr run at about $3 n gas, not NPV'd. What was the cost of that 30k' well?

  • Reply to


    by slikwillhe Dec 24, 2014 9:32 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Dec 24, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

  • Reply to


    by slikwillhe Dec 24, 2014 9:32 AM
    riskonriskoff riskonriskoff Dec 24, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    one would think.

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