watsonhelper: you connect more dots here. Thank you. But, what is the connection between our work with Generex on diabetes, Mart Saarma of Helsinki, and Novartis? (Oh, and Owen from Novartis on our Advisory Board) You mention all of them. They are all nice. But what is their interconnection? Finish it off for us. It's like you're throwing stuff out there, but not drawing a picture that results in a Novartis/Amarantus/Diabetes/Partnership conclusion. The professorial response of chiding me for not doing my own dd, as bigbang likes to do, is for the college classroom, not here. We're investors, not students.
bigbang: you and watsonhelper both identify lots of scientific dots and even connect some, but you fall short of connecting them in a way that demonstrates you are doing anything more than guess work, with all due respect. But, thanks for your guesses, they are as good as anyone else's!!
bigband: I don't claim to be a scientist. So naturally, I don't have the greatest confidence that I am going to be able to sort through all that has been written about MANF and know what to do with it. I'm long. I bought in due to LymPro's likelihood of success. MANF is a mystery that could possibly be a blockbuster. But then you come along and claim our stock price will be at $15 in 6 to 12 months. Now maybe that's because you are such a scientist that you don't realize what you are saying from an investment standpoint. You mention "as per my sources" as the reason for making such a claim. You say Amarantus is sitting on some explosive data that is about to be made public that will dramatically change our stock. Pumpers do this all the time on bio-med message boards. For me to be suspicious is quite reasonable!
watsonhelper: Thank you. I'll follow those leads: Generex, Dr. Owen Garrick, & Novartis. I did briefly look at that announcement between AMBS and Generex back in 2011. I assume that the testing they began back then have born fruits and are as of yet...unannounced?
watsonhelper: Can you give more insight into this thread: "Helsinki is digging way deeper than just beta cell work with MANF. I posted something critical from two years ago where AMBS locked a diabetes deal and no one seems to speak of it, there’s a lot behind that if someone used Google, maybe more than most comprehend." Has Novartis been testing MANF for diabetes the past two years? Are you merely speculating that AMBS and Novartis are close to forming a partnership, or do you have a credible source for making this claim? You mentioned over a week ago that "within days" there would be a PR involving diabetes and Novartis. Where are you getting this from? Everyone has the right to speculate, but you seem to suggest you are doing more than that. That is my rub. Are you speculating or do you have a credible source?
Once the first orphan indication demonstrates it is safe for humans and obtains FDA approval, approval for all the rest of MANF's indications will be much easier. Time and money will be saved. That should allow us to fetch much better deals on any and all licensing agreements that follow. Since they will be easier, maybe we'll do some of them our self?
ino ate: You're right, but just to be safe you might want to buy more shares and expect to wait a bit longer than 1 year. These stocks always take longer to get going than you think. And, there is always dilution of shares. But you've got the right idea. Maybe a year and a half.
Someone posted yesterday that perhaps Dr. Bier will release some LymPro revenue projections at some point. That would be immensely helpful. I believe once BD validates LymPro, if we then receive some revenue projections, and if we get an updated evaluation and Price Target from Jason Napodano, the stock price will zoom to those levels. MANF orphans and licensing agreements are gravy. Very, very nice gravy! But our meat and potatoes are all about LymPro. That's what should allow you to sleep at night knowing you've invested so much in a penny stock. At least, it helps me sleep better. LymPro is a year away from REVENUES!!!
nidan: Gerald said we would get the BD validation results at the end of the 3rd Q which is in two weeks. He seems to be giving us hints that the results are positive. The biggest signs indicating the results are positive are the last two people who have come on board: Dr. Biers to coordinate the commercialization of LymPro and Randall Grimes, a former VP of the company Amarantus bought LymPro from, who will be seeking grants and non-dilutive money for us. I doubt Gerald would have brought them on if he didn't know the results were positive. If the results are announced but no arrangement on a sales agreement with BD, then the pop in our stock will be modest. Once BD commits to us and gives us upfront money, I think we go above .25 cents. And then each month that we progress toward commercialization the more our pps goes up. In my opinion, LymPro provides the foundation for all our speculation on MANF. But my guess is we are in the .10 to .15 cent range in three weeks.
What is unique about AMBS is that it's upside is unfathomable! We know we conservatively have 4 to 6 orphan indications with MANF, but we might have dozens and dozens more; a universal cure all!! And all of this is on top of LymPro's potential with the early detection of Alzheimer's!! In my imagination I like to think of each of MANF's indications as a trophy on a shelf. I'm picturing six of them. What would happen six months from now, after LymPro has already taken us to .40 cents, if we scored a licensing agreement on one of the indications with upfront money and a series of big payments and royalties to follow? It would pop our stock up to .70 cents or a dollar. But then think of what would begin to happen: people would start speculating on which indication would be next? And then next after that? We might add new orphan trophies to the shelf as fast as we take them down with a procession of new licensing agreements. I got to believe that would severely restrict the short interest in AMBS. Who could possibly know where this could end? The excitement and speculation would spread like CONTAGION...After we get 4 to 6 orphans and one of them gets licensed by a Big Pharma, it is impossible to predict where speculators could take our stock price!!
Holeinone: I like to pretend my cost basis is less than it really is. And...that I haven't invested all this money in a penny stock. Truthfully, I haven't added it all up. I've got about 3 different accounts. Amarantus' story is addicting, it just keeps drawing you in.
bhuston: I'm in that neighborhood, maybe 70K. It doesn't matter how many shares I have. I am a long and I believe great things are coming...soon. But, I want to stay grounded to reality. I think it is healthier when investing in these kinds of stocks. Whipping people up into a frenzy of unrealistic expectations doesn't do anyone any favors. People then get discouraged when big things don't materialize right away and they sell off. That's why I challenge posters I think are possible pump and dump con artists.
mfm: Yeah, mysterious "sources" from a poster is the first thing that sets off my BS meter. Then when they refuse to give straight answers when questioned...my meter really starts smoking!!
scappy: By nature, I don't trust anybody!! That's just how I am. I'm not a negative personal. For example, I love speculating in small bio-meds. But my experience on these message boards has taught me that people have all kinds of motives behind their posts. Bigbang has me perplexed. I like some of the points he has made, but I'm leery of his predictions of $15 in 6 to 12 months. Also, I find it curious that someone with his science background also has as much expertise in "technical analysis." (Charts) Is he just playing us? Watsonhelper is a guesser throwing things at the wall and hoping some of them stick so he can take credit for them afterward. Bigbang...I wouldn't bet on the truthfulness of what he says (huge positive data on MANF coming in days), but I think it is possible. After all, I own 1.1 million shares (long) so I too am betting on MANF and LymPro.
posgost: Thanks. So you think the market available for LymPro after receiving CLIA Certification next year will be sizable? Gerald talks of 500 million and more. Will half that amount be available to go after next year?
mfm: bigbang says our stock price will be $15 within 6 to 12 months. I think he wants us to "mark it." He doesn't give us any concrete financial rational for how we'll get there, or tell us who his sources are, but he is indignant if we question him. I am a long and want the stock to soar, but not by phony pump and dumpers. I'm not saying he is one, but without him supplying more verification for his claims, it's hard to trust him. I'd like to, but I wasn't born yesterday. And I've been on bio-med message boards for ever. A lot of scams are played.
bigbang: I can give you 6 good reasons why your claim that our stock price will be at $15 within 6 to 12 months destroys your financial credibility, but I choose not to. However, I will repost this in a few months to remind you and hold you accountable. Now, if you wish to amend your claim and get reasonable with your financial projections (to match your scientific expertise) that would be understandable.
AMBS will only be authorized to sell it based on the CLIA Certification to labs doing research. LymPro is not scheduled to gain actual FDA approval until 2016. So, my question is: Gerald talks about a 500 million plus market for LymPro, but I assume that is after we have FDA approval in 2016. What size marketplace will be available to us in 2014 based on the CLIA Certification? Is it substantial, or very small? Yes, LymPro will begin commercialization in the second half of 2014, but will it's first two years revenues be relatively minor compared to the 500 million figure that is talked about. The answer to this question will influence just how much a sales partner for LymPro is willing to pay AMBS now. If big revenues aren't announced until the first quarter of 2017, that is still a ways off. Under the CLIA Certification, we will have revenues announced the first quarter of 2015, but if they are only generated from research labs...they might not be that significant. Does anyone have insight or data on these questions? I think they are at the heart of how much our stock price will rise after the LymPro BD results are announced.