In Nov. 2013 AMBS was trading in the .045 to .05 cent range with about 500 to 600 million outstanding shares. The market cap was in the 25 to 30 million range. Today, one year later, we are trading at .08 cents with approx. 800 million outstanding shares, or a 60 million market cap. So we have doubled in a year. That isn't bad! We've made progress. I think most of us thought we'd be above .08 cents by now, but let's hope the next few weeks changes that and we find ourselves in the .20 cents range very soon. LymPro is about to be launched. I think a year from now our market cap value will be many multiples of 60 million!
Gerald has not given any revenue guidance. He said the potential revenue for 2015 is 150 million dollars and that we should get a "significant portion" of that. That was the extent of his "qualitative" revenue guidance. Does "significant" mean 100 million in 2015 or 10 million in 2015? The market doesn't know how fast revenue will come in, that's why we're stuck at .08 cents. As soon as Gerald starts giving meaningful "quantitative" revenue guidance for LymPro, the pps will start moving upward. In fact, as soon as Gerald reveals when we get our first Pharma doing AD trials to sign up to use LymPro....our pps will pop up to .15 cents... immediately! I think conversations with pharmas doing AD trials will be going on in November and I hope we get notice of our first "sign up" by mid December. That is when the pps walk up will begin.
It's going to begin happening soon. If something had derailed LymPro we would have heard by now. It seems to be on track.
True, Gerald has fumbled the ball in the red zone a few times! But this time even Dr. Rubenfeld said at the shareholder meeting: "We're launching a diagnostic in four months. We're there." But until ICON completes the 12 week validation testing we won't know for sure that LymPro is ready to launch. But that is only 3 or 4 weeks away.
We begin with the RUO market (Pharmas doing clinical trials) but on it's heels CLIA approval will soon follow. My understanding is that it will be almost immediately, within a month or so. Gerald mentioned that are having marketing materials printed now to educate both pharmas and general practitioners as well. (Doctors) Doctors will be able to administer the blood test, but they will have to send it to the ICON Lab to get the results from it. It is anyone's guess what Gerald's marketing strategy will be in raising Lympro's awareness to the world....another reason why we remain at .08 cents....know one knows anything. Gerald has done a brilliant job at keeping us in the dark and keeping a lid on shareholder value. Maybe he is just trying to move slowly so we don't stub our toe publicly in a way that would taint Lympro's reputation? In any event, things will start moving shortly.
Beckton Dickenson validated Lympro and had their name on the posters in Copenhagen. That says LymPro is for real. It will monetize soon enough. In the mean time, good luck collecting more shares.
Does anyone on the message board know the "scientific reasons" Dr. Urano has put our "recombinant" MANF patent on the back burner while he explores the "small molecule" method of stimulating the natural production of MANF within the body to treat wolframs? (Urano blog Sept. 27th or 28th)
My understanding is that when Urano refers to the "small molecule" method of stimulating MANF in the body, that is a method that doesn't include our patented "recombinant" MANF which we manufacture and then inject into a patient to treat a disease.
In the last month or so, Dr. Urano is saying he prefers the "small molecule" method over the "recombinant" MANF injection.
Dr. Urano has tested MANF perhaps more than anyone. If he is saying he prefers a different method than ours of triggering MANF in the body, shouldn't that be something we discuss on the message board?
If his current preference for the "small molecule" method holds true for wolframs, does that mean it might hold true for all the other indications we're targeting MANF for: Parkinsons, Retinitis, Diabetes, TBI, etc, etc?
Someone with more of a science background needs to weigh in on this.
posgost: Is it concerning to you that Dr. Urano, who has tested MANF about as much as anyone says he "prefers" the "small molecule" method?
Thanks. I'm gathering you don't feel the "small molecule" method is a threat to our "recombinant" manf patents as a therapeutic treatment for diseases. I hope that's right.
I don't know enough about this acquisition to say whether it is good or bad. But Gerald has been hinting about an acquisition for over 6 months! Sounds like he has been eyeing this product for a reason. I think Gerald has a pretty good track record with acquisitions: LymPro and Eltoprazine. I watched Michael J. Fox on the "Good Wife" last night where he plays an attorney suffering from Parkinson's Disease. Last night he mentioned his character needed a kidney transplant as a result of the PD medication he was taking. I couldn't help but think of Eltoprazine and how it could end up surprising us in the next year or so. Perhaps if the testing goes well, it may temporarily make us forget about MANF. I have criticized Gerald about not increasing shareholder value as he promised he would in 2014. But we can't tie his hands in making great strategic deals when they arise. I'm assuming Gerald is probably SCORING for us, not SCAMMING us!!
That is what Gerald said some of the 3 million from Dominion will fund....the new acquisition whose clinical trials have been funded by the Government. Sounds intriguing. It's not costing us that much.
Diversification is good. MANF is so pre-clinical. There are things that we don't see now that could derail MANF in the future. In this business diversification is a good thing.
One of the important pieces of the AMBS puzzle is the role institutional investors will play in investing in AMBS after we up list to NASDAQ. To sweeten the pot for them Gerald is adding to our pipeline. The more quality drugs and diagnostics we have in clinical phases the better the odds for an institutional investor that something will hit pay dirt and give them a handsome return. This new acquisition needs to come together for us before we up list so it can add to how our future potential will look for institutional investors.
Solantey: You're switching your opinion back and forth more than Zarc!! You've really done a few 180s in the last couple of weeks!
Desperate companies don't pay more to acquire new assets. Based on Gerald's track record with LymPro and Eltoprazine....I'm going to give Gerald the benefit of the doubt on this. Four things are going to raise pps in the next 2 months: 1) LymPro Launch, 2) MANF Orphan indication approval, 3) Eltoprazine start of phase 2b trial, and 4) Up listing to NASDAQ. In pre-RS numbers I don't see how this doesn't put us above .20 cents by January or February 2015?
Sol: Re-run to last week and you were predicting we'd be at .15 cents by year end! LOL. Your head is spinning like a top!!
Do diagnostics have "orphan designations?" I guess when I heard it was an "orphan" I thought it was a therapeutic rather than a diagnostic.
What Na-bizzaro said is so bizarre that I'm wondering if he has lost it? If LymPro was only estimated to bring in one million in 2015 and 3.5 million in 2016 that wouldn't be enough to be worth AMBS' time. Gerald would never do a 1:100 RS, at .08 cents that would put us at $8 on NASDAQ. We wouldn't need to be that high! Jason is playing some kind of game with us but in the mean time is losing his credibility.