I have my truck full now .
hope it goes up , but does not look good today.
and the actions will lead to inflation and high rates .
Keep on moving the goal posts , until there is no more turf but a cliff.
yes the economy will recover and unemployment will drop and yes expectations of inflation will rise.
California rents are way up, so is price of oil.
I bought a condo for investment , and in one year sold it for 71 % profit .
home equity values have increased will cause increase in confidence and expenditures and this will lead to faster velocity of money.
It does not matter if it takes six more months or one year or even two . bonds will sink in value.
just wait and see.
Economy will pick up, TLT will head way down.
Only question in my mind is by how much.
There will be a stair case drop in tlt, at times pausing due to stock market correction, but direction in my view is clear ! Please note looking backwards at inflation or setting a target to 2 % is ridiculous without having the tools to control it in the high range.
FED Hammer will work the other way once run away inflation occurs .
by the way this can happen so fast , that you may not be able to prevent large losses if you are long in TLT.
I see that you are way wrong on your call again.
I am up 2.5 %, since my call , and this is the beginning. ( not down 10 %).
better sell TLT.
see you when TLT is 85.
is the S&P in a triple top? or when you look at six month graph is it still considered double top ?
I see that we have resistance at 1845-1850, many times. any opinions?
I agree we are not venezuela,
but to think that we will stay at these historical low rates for long is idiotic.
I was trying to illustrate both sides of equation through current examples around the world.
India and China have more than one trillion dollars of our debt Treasuries, and if they begin to sell these long term (losing) bonds then watch what happens to TLT.
I am fairly positive on our long term recovery and inflation coming back.
wrong, if debt is high in private sector, such as in China, then interest rates go up due to fear of default.
Read Wall street articles about how interest rates in China are 8-10 % for one year loans and how companies will have a hard time with possible dfault.
Look at Venezuela's bonds, now 16 % ,d ue to risk of default.
Look at Puerto Rico's risk and hagh paying bonds.
Only thing that has held bond rates low are our own government buying them.
over 60 % of treasuries are being bought by the FEDs.
this is the ultimate problem with TLT, that eventually if the country recovers our economy rates go up, and if countries/companies go into default eventually TLT will also go down ( though first markets would collapse and there would be some upward movement of TLT but I think short lived).
I think America is not doomed, that we have borrowed from the borrowers , by giving nothing with #$%$ like treasury bonds , forcing them to buy stock market. false belief that keeping interest rates low will solve everything.
To me it reinforced insecurity in the economy.
Economy of greatest country of world will improve, and rates , as they must will follow !. in other words rate increases will be sign of GOOD economy.
there will be an over shoot at some point, due excess quantitative easing.
and that is where I will make my money.
I agree it is very high risk in this bloated market. but will hedge it with tza , once market corrects will by more tmv and sell my tza.
this is not a large part of my portfolio at this time but once correction is done TLT to 85.
I have been buying some TMV lately , price 61 to 62 range.
prior run up bought at tbt at 64 and sold at 73 to 74.
I think this will continue to go up at faster rate than market in general.
when I see some profits and market topping will sell again.
please note in the not so long run TLT will drop quite a bit.
This is hard to call. I think I would scale in slowly with tbt maybe 10 % now and 10% every 2 % market goes down. If markets takes a large sudden down turn, then would even consider tmv(but only if 20% correction). Advantage of tbt is that it loses less from variation and volatility than tmv and can be held longer. Of course this is just my opinion and with an leveraged product there is risk, and could lose money even if you chose the right direction. So total allocation should be something that you feel comfortable with.
This is a natural response to market drop, and tlt will go up a little more with a significant correction, but after dust settles, it will go down hard . See you when TLT is 85.
Well , first of all the Fed does not necessarily care about the market as much as the economy and unemployment. Although I disagree in the degree of Quantitative easing, what better time is there to stop buying and begin to sell treasuries that they own themselves.
When the market is going up treasuries bonds go up in interest ( down in value) and therefore it is not what was hoped by the Feds.
But when the market is goiing down , people buy bonds initially and the government does not have to prop up the price of bonds with their Qe ( to keep interest down)..
In other words tapering now is good for the FED balance book, and it will not hurt bonds much.
what I do not think is accounted for is he degree of bubble bursting that is going to occur.
I think it will be cycle of market down, then bonds down then market down.
Only thing up will be the US Dollar.
in a sense this is having the effect on emerging markets, where their currency will go down in value as compared to ours.
there will be defaults of emerging countries , which will lead to their recovery eventually.
for us as the Fiat currency , we will eventually recover , but bear market may ensue prior to this.
All just my opinion.
pap smears have not been annual for long time.
Currently 3 years if normal and negative HPV.
some cases are actually every 5 years.
We are in an era where economics do not follow normal rules, new quantum of economics brought on due to purchases of 4 trillion dollars of bonds.
This era will lead to no inflation even when our economy increases in GDP.
Where bonds will continue to be low even though people are selling them to buy equity.
This era will change way people look at P/E ratios and will lead to happier pocket books with continuously increasing share prices without necessarily increasing profits.
Our purchasing power will not decrease but increase as we add more currency into circulation.
Oh maybe this is the new green. or like the show goes " Orange is the new Black".
Or maybe not ....
see you when TLT is 85-90.
We still have this bet right? we will see who is correct TLT to 85 first or 125.