"that is a scientific fact...the only argument is what or who causes global warming."
Yup. To argue otherwise is totally ridiculous.
"rivv will get back tomorrow AM over coffee"
Ok, i see that's from denny, thanks for the heads up. Wasn't gonna look at anything more he'd posted in that thread. I guess now i'm forced to unless he goes to his new thread. I do appreciate it when he can stick to giving some thoughts on investments without going to the political garbage. Even when the thoughts don't seem to be rational. Sometimes what looks irrational isn't, so it's good to see some sane argument over them instead of tossing them into the garbage off the bat. Key word being sane.
"He is just playing the fool for us"
Yup, sometimes when i've seen him i think the same. Though most times not. Your, "maybe some day he will admit that he believes exactly the same things you and i do," that i very much doubt. Maybe some of it, certainly not all, not even close to all.
Ok, i appreciate that. It's basically the way i have my stuff set up as well, with the yacks falling into that "next level of risk" category, maybe even a level above that. The there's fx. Fx, obviously, falls into the "about 3 levels above" category, the high excitement level. the only thing i can think of that beats it is the junk bonds category. Normally fund only for me there, i'm not good enough to pick the winners from the losers. yet i did recently make a junk bond purchase, more arch coal at the 10 cents on the $ mark, adding to what i'd bought at the 50 cents on the $ mark. Decided against the 10 cents per share offering at the time, maybe a month ago, those 600% higher now, 1000% yesterday .
I've much more in cash than usual rather than fixed income though. My bad for focusing only on the rates rather than the profit that could be made holding fixed income in a falling rate environment. I should've remembered the lesson i learned in the early '80's and should've paid attention to the recommendations my son sent me from his firm. My very bad, hopefully to be remembered for the next time. There's always a next time.
You should look at the qqq's being at a risk level not far below fx imo. Today's tech isn't always tomorrow's. Witness intc and msft, etal. Aapl, will its new foray work, content delivery? If so, what happens to netflix, etal. If it doesn't, what actual tech product does appl have for the future to justify where it's at now. Tech comes, tech goes. If it's your play money, fine. If not, look out. How much of the qqq's rise over the past 10 years has come because of aapl? And the fervor over the social networks? The 90's tech worked itself into a bubble, and burst. Not the safest of plays. Imo, goog is the safest of them all but certainly far from immune. I might've included amzn but bezos still seems more interested in building his empire than making profits. A recession should hurt him greater than goog.
"...verify your VG funds performance vs: CGM."
Are you really that dumb?
1) Whether it does or doesn't add to vg's performance, no one disputed vg did cream fx for the period from the recession to maybe 2 years ago when the performance gap should've stayed at least static and i think more probably started narrowing. Nevertheless, you won't see any divies, unless vg pays interim divies, not just annual divies, for the periods i picked, the 6 months on down. That doesn't even take into account you're comparing apples to eggs. Qs are tech, no? Is fx tech or anything he wants? For that matter is vg healthcare while fx is anything he wants?
If you are gonna go by divi included performance, be sure you get heebner's divies up to 2008, maybe including 2008. There were some real doozies in there.
Now, how about why merrill recommended the yacks? Or is that just bs on your part? I'm not even gonna get into the economic bs take. That's just you being stupid you. I did want to keep the thread clean which is why i didn't congratulate you before on seeing how the obama administration's given you optimism for the future of tech. I'll just leave it as being your innate stupidity that keeps you from admitting it.
I'll be looking for the answer to merrill. The only reason i'll be looking. The thang stupidity on this thread underwhelms me. Should i have expected more? I guess that's simply a confirmation of the old saying hope doesn't belong with stock.
"...hasn't missed a dividend payment in over 10 years,quite a track record and its paying 8%"
Thanks for giving me hope. Maybe i'll get my money back in 5 or 6 years with all those coming dividends.
Seriously though, how has this one played out in the face of a fed raising rates? Not saying they're gonna start raising rates this september. Even with all the talk and spec i think that's up in the air, dependent on data yet to come. But much backward looking data involved there and could lead to wrong conclusions about the future.
I know they say they don't look at the market but even so, the market looks at the same things they do, so market watching is done by proxy in a way. Except the proxy doesn't reflect the market's insane sentiment periods, only the fundamentals part of the equation.
"Looks like the Yactmans are following Heebner's path."
While i was gonna ask denny why he's getting recs on the yacks, i've gotta take exception to this statement of yours. Yeah, the yacks haven't done anything for quite awhile now. Maybe igg was right about the change in ownership, but i don't believe that's where the under performance is coming from. Imo, it comes from their atyle, their long stuck to style. The yachtman proven style. I think the old man and his son are still there, and still influence the way tings are done.
Yacktman is a value player. They don't go overboard. So they lose less in periods such as now, and periods leading to recessions, while all the high flyers plummet back down to earth after getting way ahead of themselves. I, as a holder of both yackx and yaffx, can't say i didn't miss flying high as well, but i recognized the market was ahead of itself. Recognized either by accident or by good sense, i don't know which. Anyway, that's why i was selling out of the money puts instead of buying more than minimal purchases of stock for so long myself.
Been a yack player since around 1999. Got in after they slipped from being #1 in their class. Have been well rewarded since. Rewarded because they were hurt a lot less than the high flyers so many chase, rewarded because when markets came back they roared back with them. If that's why denny's advisers recommend them, then fine, i won't disagree. If it's something else, well, i'd like to know what the something else is to see if i agree or disagree.
Lose less when markets fall, make a lot more when they rise as long as there's enough value vs risk. My kind of fund for the non-gambler part of me. I like to understand what's behind the system, what's behind the performance, and what to expect from the future. I don't like to cherry pick time frames and base my plays on only the recent performance. That's why chasers get burned in the end.
"VGHAX creams Heebner, too. I've held the fund for over 15 years."
Gee, then how come heebner beats it by about 2% for that period of time? You lost money to heebner over that period time. And for the last 6 months yours beats his by .17%, 17 100ths of a %, loses to him by almost 3% for the past 3 months, and loses to him by .65 of a % for the past month. While significantly narrowing the large 5 year performance gap for the past 2 years, all the while healthcare was in its biggest boom since the biotech bubble of 2000? You take a specialty fund having the best years of its life and compare it to a general stock fund in a slow growth environment?
Well, those are the figures based on yesterday's closing. I imagine you'll pick up some on him today. Though my hqh isn't going all that well today, either. Makes me almost glad i'd been selling as it rose though i still have a ways to go before i'll start buying back shares. How do you think your vghax is gonna do today?
Maybe on a rethink you'll start worrying about is this the end of the healthcare boom, the end of vghax's out performance? Just as we've seen for healthcare before. Been through it all for about 27 years with hqh. Maybe one day you'll actually learn.
"After 2008-2009 it became apparent that he was somewhat of an equity perma -bull."
I kind'a disagree with that. I think he got misled by the saving of merrill i think it was, then got crunched when they didn't save the next one, bear i think that one was. I know i did, and so did much of the market Then getting crunched you figure it's too late to sell. Throw that in with his misconception, total error really though he was not alone in thinking it, that the banks were not exposed to risk on their home mortgages sales and swaps and you get what we got. So now he's thinking he's really but really too late, things can't get much worse. Of course they did. Not permabull but thrown into a state of confusion, and panic over the loss of his rep.
Well, it was fun conjecturing anyway. I really don't think he's a permabull. I do think he thinks there's always a bull market somewhere to be found and he wanted to be in it before it started. Problem for him was he was in the wrong stuff. His stuff didn't start for a year or more after the others, and well after he thought it would.
Sold some more uvxy this morning. Something like 80 1/2. That comes about a week after i sold that piece in i think it was the 62's. I am really gonna be looking to get back what i sold. I don't have enough left, though i expect i'll sell the next tranche in the 100's if it gets there even if i haven't bought any back first.
"As for div payout, I would ask what that would likely be.? Maybe reason to get involved with this fund again"
I guess you mean fx. To the question i say nope. The idea's to get in before the cap gains are made, not after simply to get the payout which only reduces the fund's value by same amount and exposes you to possible taxes. When you get in, especially one as wild as this one, you get in to make cap gains, not to get a dividend.
"...get involved with this fund again"
I think i misconstrued. Now i'm guessing you meant cgmfx. If so, with regards divi why would you? Whatever divi you may get will just reduce the value of fund by the same amount, while you'll have to pay tax on it in a taxable, or deferred when you take it, account. The idea's to be in a fund before it makes its cap gains, not after.
"...who has cut his chops picking bull market real estate cycles..."
That's where i originally knew him from. Had wanted to get into that one for years and didn't get my chance until the last recession. Very glad to have gotten the opportunity and certainly no regrets since. I've always considered the sector his primary expertise.
I kind of doubt he's concerned about interest rate rises though. If he was i doubt he'd be heavy into home builders. I think he's just looking to take advantage of the expected small, slow and steady rate moves upward, if he's still got the treasury short. I imagine he believes can make money short side even off that slow go scenario. Maybe live with it until the world comes up to US economic levels, forcing an acceleration of the pace.
Not a bad play, even after all this waiting, given downside risk is kind'a negligible at a well less than 1% rate. Maybe not the play he anticipated when he started it though. I pretty much figure he thought he'd be getting them, the rate rises, bigger, faster and much sooner when he initiated the play. Well, maybe in a couple more years. As i "said," the rest of the world has got to get its act going or nobody's gonna wind up anywhere but behind.
Hey Keith, nice to see you're still around. I guess the political/social doodoo has you really turned off. Can't blame you but i can't let the dingle berries just roam free.
Almost forgot, again. Came back to post on heebner, got sidetracked by a fool. Anyway, i see he still had gvt bonds in his possession as of 6/29. I imagine still short? Funny thing though, the home builders he had back then were up today, the financials down. If these were due to interest rates moving one way or the other, and the bonds are short, something seems out of whack.
"PIGS IN A BLANKET"
Might surprise you but most liberals have respect for the law, until the law shows no respect for them. Unlike you people who show no respect for anyone but yourselves, ever. Were you with the guanothang when it was burning and lynching?
Almost forgot. Heebner surprised me today. I may have to try to get some idea of his fx holdings.
"We can afford to help others."
Hint: it's not just about money. It's more about the meaning of being human. You'll find poor people who are willing to share what they have with others, and poor people who won't. Same with people who have.
Just shows you guys get more brains when you're dead than you had when you were alive. Maybe you should learn the lesson before it's your turn to go and get to appreciate more from the world around you.
Wish i could say i rode it all the way with you but friday i sold most of what i'd bought this past week the same time you did. I do have a bit of it left. Plus i'd sold some more puts on it while it was in the 5's and i still have those out against me, plus the puts i'd sold when it was higher than where it is now. So, yeah, i'm riding it with you, just not as much as could have been, sorry for me.
"...will adjust to a market neutral stance and short overvalued equities?"
Maybe. Sorry, wish i could say something with more certainty. If Keith was still around he might be able to tell you off what he's seen of buys and sells in the overall cgm portfolio, the one covering all the cgm funds. Perhaps you can find that for yourself and draw your own conclusions. Me, i don't bother looking anymore. That holds true for all the funds i hold, not just this one.
That all said, i kind'a doubt it. Unless he thinks he sees a reason for a significant market decline. That's my impression of him, for what it's worth.
Looked you up here because i wasn't sure if Van was replying to me or you.
"The thing Trump is addressing are the illegals with criminal records being exported to this country by their leaders all knowing these are criminals."
You gotta be kidding. Or dumb. I can't tell for sure which one of the two anymore. All 11 1/2 million of the originally targeted group, the illegal immigrants, the about 6 million mexicans among them, and all the rest, they all have criminal records. And all their legal American citizen children. I guess you think this donald character you're addressing is as stupid as the guano. Well, i do have him on ignore for a reason so maybe he is.
"...all those folk making 5 dollars a hour saves their employers and you big bucks."
No, no, no. You got it wrong. Forget about what the thang writes, it's almost never reality. It does know from experience but the sentence, if it was reflecting actuality, would read, "... all those folk, including you, making 5 dollars a hour saves their employers big bucks."
"A few weeks after his 22nd birthday, Donald Trump received a notice from the federal government. On July 9, 1968, his local draft board had scrawled a “1A” beside his name in its handwritten ledger, classifying him as available for unrestricted military service."
Trump’s exposure to the draft, however, didn’t last long. Two months later, on Sept. 17, 1968, he reported for an armed forces physical examination and was medically disqualified, according to the ledger from his local Selective Service System draft board in Jamaica, N.Y., now in the custody of the National Archives."
Ironically that was my board as well.
Trump, who was born in 1946, and his campaign have given conflicting explanations about how he came to be protected from the draft..."
In some interviews, Trump has cited his medical deferment and the bone spurs in his feet. But his campaign has given a different reason, saying that he simply lucked out in the 1969 lottery.
That year, young men with the same birthdate as Trump — June 14 — were assigned draft number 356 out of 366, almost last. Anyone with that number was almost guaranteed to avoid being drafted, unless the entire country mobilized.
“When the draft occurred, they never got near his number and he was therefore exempt from serving [in the] military,” Trump’s campaign said in its Saturday statement. “Although he was not a fan of the Vietnam War, yet another disaster for our country, had his draft number been selected he would have proudly served and he is tremendously grateful to all those who did.”"
Yeah, just like dennythang's deferment due to the country needing him for secret projects.
I know what trump is and why he's doing what he's doing. I can only hope there is a sufficient number of intelligent independents that can see the same things. It'd be a national tragedy for this guy to actually get to gain the oval office.