"This time I bot UPRO,..."
Congrats. You held on or sold? If held, how high a bounce you expect, and over how long a period of time, or you just gonna play in reaction to what's happening at the moment? I'm figuring if it lasts at all the summer doldrums will arrive within the next couple of weeks to kill it. Honestly though, i don't expect much and i figure an end even as early as tomorrow afternoon. Or within a couple of days after the fed announcement if it's benign enough to give a little encouragement for an the interest rate hike delay past september.
The rest of the world's problems haven't gone away and delaying an interest rate hike i don't see fixing them. Too bad, too, because the US is doing just fine given the limits imposed by the rest of the world's circumstances imo, but it can't continue keep doing fine if the rest of the world keeps sliding toward the hole. I wonder how deep the hole will be.
as Chinese turned to stocks-GFMS'
That's a healdine i just caught. Haven't read the story as yet. Now that they're turning away from stocks will they buy back into gold? Darned if i know. Seems to me like two losing sectors for them, and they are not a stupid people, just gambling crazy.
Kbk, you're back. Since no one else's posted lately i decided to look in. "i feel like i'm missing something here....." Yup, a brain. Don't bother looking for it, you never had one.
Ta ta, maybe i'll catch another post of yours some month in the future. But why i should even bother sure beats me.
"Leading the hampton sales, and the manhattan apartment sales,..."
Was just watching the video of this bloomberg story 'Here's Our Tally of Donald Trump's Wealth.' Chump, though tramp's just as good apparently has overvalued himself by 7 billion vs a number of estimates placing his worth right around 3 billion. Not that 3b's anything to sneeze at, but someone who has to inflate his own self-worth so far past the point of believability is quite vulnerable to being made the laughing stock of all who hear him.
Anyway, really not why i'm here. Within the story was a point made of the nyc market, and i imagine that means manhattan and possibly now the Brooklyn Hgts manhattan extension, still being strong. That bodes pretty well for those surrounding nyc areas and the surrounding suburbs, which normally follow the manhattan trend within several months or so. For me, that's also reflective of how the financials based in manhattan are doing, and if they're doing well so should be the financials based around the country. Though trump did have to reduce the price on the penthouse apt he just sold from 35 million down to the 21 million he got. Took him 2 years to get it sold.
Does that mean he has to reduce his net worth figure another 14 million?
Biteme, looks like you got oblamer fool spinning again, to use your wordolgy. Which of the toads is that one? I imagine it should be oblaming itself, and not someone else, for whatever mess it's in, and i'm pretty sure you've touched on that theme often in the past.
"There is a small correlated drag on US equities over the short period."
I'll have to take some issue with that. You're going for a direct link to US shares i guess, but are you taking into account the business American countries do in china? A drop in chinese wealth will cause a drop in the purchase of American company goods, as well as goods of other countries.
Caught a ford story this morning. This chinese drop is coming at a bad time for them, just when they are completing a big auto plant investment in china. Between the drop in the market and the economic slowdown, which likely will be exacerbated by the market drop, just not a pretty picture. It's too bad the rest of the world will throw a monkey wrench into our own works. The right wing will blame obama of course, and if it gets bad enough, by extension hillary will have her trouble. I wonder what kind of fallout from her people there'll be for the right winger merkel.
Here, went and got part of the story:
"CHINA: The slowdown in China comes at a bad time for Ford, which is nearly finished with a $5 billion expansion in the country that included several new plants and a slew of vehicles. The Dearborn, Mich.-auto maker expects the region to drive most of its growth through 2020. Fortunately for Ford, it is selling a lot of SUVs, which remain popular in the country."
"It's gonna spill over here soon"
An asian contagion redux, though not on the money as i recall the previous one was, but the chinese market player. Told you guys those people over there are crazy gamers, both on the upside and the downside. They move in either direction like a horde of crazed lemmings.
"... no fund earnings distributions in seven years..........interesting."
Not so much interesting. He's done ok over those years i imagine. Not a heebner knockout, but ok. And no distributions paid means no tax to pay in a non-deferred account, so no beef there. Lower the nav by the amount of any distribution, and pay tax on that distribution. I don't see the problem with paying none from working off all those loss carry-forwards from the recession.
You sauat with the best of us hawk. How long you been here and when's the last time you posted on fx?
"...assessment of a possible alternative."
Might help to further assess their motives by comparing whatever amount of bonds you note they sold against what their budget shortfall's gonna be this year and next, maybe even further out. If they've sold enough to cover only a year or two then i'd be guessing they're gonna cut production within that time frame, while interest rates are as low as they are now.
If they've sold more than enough to cover this year's and next's, then it'd look to me like they've hunkered down for the very long haul and are trying to put everyone else out of business.
Again, obviously just a guess.
"...only the person who has assumed my old ID would have access to the old post with their post dates..."
Nahh, not as far as i can see. All you gotta do is change from the last 3 months to the all option and all your posts should be able to be accessed.
"The Aview post where he tore into you, Riv, was issued in 2011."
Nope, the handle was issued then. The post was either this year or last. I checked when i first read the post. It wasn't in the original Aview's style. But, no matter. I've criticized Aview before, he certainly has the right to criticize me without destroying a certain compatriot-ship on this board. For all i know could be one of you took over his former handle and, as he noted, yahoo just kept it going, simply continuing to reference it to be in effect since 2011.
"So, it appears they are not in a hurry to cut back on production."
In the words of the song, it ain't necessarily so. Try thinking of alternative meanings. A cutback will mean lower revenues at first, even with higher prices. I.e., they cut production 10%, meaning they sell so many fewer barrels, though at a higher contract price. But this is for the future, not spot, unless they sell spot which they might not be able to for higher given the current glut. The longer they wait to do this the further out it'll be before whatever they do means anything to them in the way of getting more bucks for their bang.
Just something i can think of, and no guarantees it's even a correct assessment of a possible alternative. Seems to me they're in a hurry to shore up their balance sheet. Something i noted a couple of month ago i think that they'll be having trouble with their current budget.
"No matter what, it appears to me oil will remain cheaper for a year or maybe longer."
Sorry, can't go with the no matter what. No doubt cheaper oil if things remain as they currently are, but that remain doesn't include a no matter what for me.
"Thank you for demonstrating what the bottom feeders of America are."
Apparently you got to the aview persona. Don't know what it wrote but nice to see you keeping it busy.
By the way, what's the difference in handles between this aview and your prior aview? Did you have a capital letter in yours, or some other difference? I guess this current aview got jealous of you.
"Supply continues to outstrip demand."
"Russia and Saudi Arabia need the money and are fighting to maintain market share."
Yup, and perhaps. The perhaps for the saudis. Seems to me they don't need the money all that much right now, otherwise they wouldn't have started playing the game of fight for market share when they surprised by not cutting when expected to do so. At some point, and i think not far off with all the production cutbacks coming from all the shutdowns, they are gonna decide it's better to sell a barrel of oil for $60 rather than sell 2 barrels for $30. They can then keep a barrel in the bank for the days when oil gets to $80 and $100.
You're betting against that scenario, i'm looking for plays that will benefit in the shorter term, like 2 years, if that scenario or some other shock comes along in that time, and will benefit if the shock doesn't come but the world returns to the demand outstripping supply scenario 5 or more years from now. I think the xom put play fits in there. I pick up the put premium now (if i get my price) for the 47 1/2, if a shock comes i keep it free and clear, if a shock doesn't come but the decline is relatively slow and orderly i still should wind up free and clear with the put premium in my pocket, and if the decline should actually get down to the level before expiry, and i wind up with the stock, it's at a price i most likely would have begun to nibble at it anyway. I can then always sell covered calls on it at that point as well or, if conditions permit, roll those puts for even lower strike puts further out.
Getting ahead of myself of course, but just delineating all the courses of action i'll have open to me depending on what conditions i'll face if/when i have to choose one. It's so far this year worked with xom once, with memp once, with wnrl once, and i have two such plays going with wnrl now. With the caveat, of course, that past performance does not guarantee future performance.
"...2016 price of $27.60/barrel, so let's round that up to $30/barrel which would be a 50% dip in price. So sub $40/barrel before the end of 2015 would be a realistic projection..."
The guy in that xom piece this morning also did a tech analysis for several stocks in the oil sector, though not for oil itself.
"Starting with Exxon, the chart shows a 61.8% retracement of the 2010-2014 rally in the 75 area, as mentioned earlier (see Chart 1). This odd percentage is based on the Fibonacci sequence of numbers from the world of mathematics and is often followed closely by technical analysts. Whether support exists there naturally or due to a self-fulfilling prophesy is up for debate, but I have found it useful as part of an overall strategy."
"Finally I think we are 4 to 5 years away from seeing $100/barrel again, maybe even longer."
No disagreement from me there, but i make no guesses on absolute price movements in the sector. It's one that's so exposed to weather (we're in hurricane season now), terrorism (we seem to always be in terrorism season), politics (ugh, another years' round factor), all affecting a volatile investor/trader sentiment, that anything can come along at anytime to upset any projection anyone makes. Hence my put target of a way out of the money 47 1/2 for xom, because investor sentiment on either side of the pendulum really goes haywire at times.
Been playing xom on a buy low, sell high and/or sell calls high for the past i guess 25 or 30 years, others in the sector as well, like el paso, coastal, etal, no longer around because they got bought out at nice profits for me, and it's worked out just fine for me as a long term investor in this type play. So i'm setting a buy low price target where at this time i wouldn't mind adding some of the stock and hang on to it for the future.
Contrasted with that long term investor play i do take a short term oriented potshot here and there.
"I will check BLRX."
Sure hope you didn't buy in Bernie, at least not yet. Still a bunch of products in the pipe so if it goes down substantially more i'll probably add some.
Got a funny stink this morning over on the cgmfx board. Smelled like a dead rat. Lo and behold!, came across a kbk post there. Only the faded out ignore sighting, not the body of the post of course, but enough to let me know from where the stink emanated.
That idiot really stinks up whatever place it goes trying to draw attention to itself. Lonely little grubber. Awwww, i think i feel so bad for it i think i'm gonna cry. Not.
Kbk, you complete idiot. What you doin' here? Slunk away from the mtg board because everyone there knows you haven't got a brain cell in your body and you smell funny? Nahh, not smell funny, just plain ole stink.
"It has equity."
Also usually has debt. Remember the reit debacle back in i think it was the 1970's? So many of them went bk, including one i had, my first one. I forget its name/symbol.
A reit yielding 4% i wouldn't for a second consider. What happens when whatever the reit has its stake in, housing, land, forests, whatever, starts dropping in value? Don't forget your economic cycles.
Book value's a part of the equation, but for me it's generally a minor part only for many types of investments, and often not reflective of true value. Like book value of all those guys holding the swaps before they tanked, and then the book value of all those guys' holdings at marked to market value during the depressed recession, or is that recessed, thanks to obama, depression (the depression's still out there, just waiting for the next bushie type prez to come along). In both cases, high and low, really not realistic book values.
True, 1/2 point won't make a 4% yielder into a 12% yielder. The way things work though, neither should a slow, measured rise over the years to the 4 and even 5% levels. The market has a way of evening out pps and yield levels to be fairly constant for many issues. Often assisted by mgts which drop monetized divi levels along the way. It's the rapid rate interest rate changes that cause the deeper fluctuations in yield levels. Even so, i wouldn't expect a 4% yielder to reach 12%, or higher, except in the most dire of circumstances. So i don't even bother looking at a 4% yielder reit, especially when times are skewed to the good or very good, such as now. I still adhere to the economic cycle theory.
Regards 4% to 5%, even 6%, i use those levels as a guide from historic levels, and the theory of regression to the mean. Probably because i still adhere to the economic cycle theory. And newton's what goes up must come down, though modified by adding what goes down must go up. As long as it doesn't go bk. In general works for me
"Actually that was the start of Americas permanent deficit."
Ok, i looked at the thang's post. You're absolutely correct, as it being one factor. Reagan bought current prosperity at the cost of the future.
Isn't one guano's argument that we're too debt in debt, that the debt will lead to drastic erosion of the $, and it picks on obama for that? I seem to recall reading that somehow. Well, that's what reagan did. Not only that though. He also installed additional taxes, and tariffs i believe, that had high impact on the average guy. Like the gas tax. I can't deny tax relief was necessary to pull us out of the doldrums back then, but to keep piling on the debt/mortgaging the future once we were out, that was ridiculous. the california redux i worried about before he got elected.
He became the ultimate union buster, destroying what power the working stiff could generate to stand up against the dictates of the overseer. By the way, i'm still torn over which was worse, the illegal strike by the air controllers or the punishment. Plus, speaking of reckless gambles, the fact of increasing the danger to the flying public by replacing seasoned controllers with new recruits (i myself considered going for it at the time but dismissed the idea; didn't want the responsibility and the stress if i could even have qualified for the job, which i hope for the sake of the flying public i wouldn't have).
Reagan, the great emancipator of the rich and the great enslaver of everyone below that level. An actor playing at the most powerful position in the world and winding up destroying ours.
"...might actually be worth twice what you thought."
You're right. I'd forgotten about that. Now i'll have to wait until they drop into the 200's before i consider buying them again 8 ). Actually, all something has to do is show a good drop from whatever and whenever its current level's at for me to consider buying. I did that with apple when it was in the pre-split 80's i believe it was, having fallen significantly just before. That was after initially turning down the opportunity when it was in deep trouble and i think around many years before that. Unfortunately i sold it one way too early as well, only made a few points on it. Another argument for clinton's buy and hold for at least 6 years.
Didn't i see a remark from you, made last night, that reits are looking attractive here? Well, whether i did or it was only in my dreams, i tend to agree but even more disagree. Currently attractive off the yields, but in a climate of rising interest rates they should get hit further. Nevertheless, you might want to start chipping away and hope the yield turns out to provide more income than the chipping away removes from the stock price. Actually, that's what i've started to do with several yield issues, though not reits. Not yet reits. I first want to see yields of at least 12% for decent reits.
That 12% is just my own benchmark from history, no other reason. That's the yield level i was playing real estate reits when rates were in the 5% range, and i do think we're gonna get back to the 4%-5% level some day. But far, far down the road, years down the road. The only way we're gonna get there faster is off a heated economy and i just don't see that happening for years to come as well. Just not enough income coming in for the working stiff. So if i can get at least 12% on a decent reit i'll take the shot, figuring the yield will much more than be sufficient to make up for loss of principle. Just my own system, and i do deviate, often to my own regret.