What is 5% of new stock worth? Thats the level it will reach.
Existing stockholders would receive 5% of the new common stock
Anybody notice when execs sold their shares? Pretty obvious D.O.E. is changing their mind about donations to Ohio employment via sending hundreds of millions to USEC.
Nobody is offering a buyout! Go back and listen to all the conference calls and you too will realize that Geron Management is going it alone mandating the already filed for secondary be released. Its only a matter of when. One can speculate that if the stock shows anymore weakness the CEO will advance plans as that is his cash to go the next few years at $450/hour with multiple center trials which burn cash faster than currently.
Correct! In fact isn't it possible that the Asterias release was intended to "try" to keep longs in the stockuntil they had a chance to issue secondary but now that stock is turning lower it seems much morelikely CEO will take this premium from earlier lows to establish cash buffer. Can anyone think of a reason he would risk market forces now that no new news is coming by waiting???
All good reasons why the long term is positive, however, as a stock facing both a secondary as the cash burn will increase substantially, management wants and acts like it will be independent and 10's of millions of new owners have a 300 to 400% short term gain there seems to be a likelihood it (the stock) may weaken until the secondary is done. The lower the stock goes the more likely the CEO will trigger it as it is ALREADY on file and it huge.
One major secondary already filed so they can deal in strength with any suitor or handle on their own which is what history says they will do anyway. Gambit is whether they will trigger it earlier than planned due to much greater cash burn with multi-center studies newly announced or because price is slipping back too low to draw funding. Long term I think Geron will survive but it will eat cash until then. CEO said years so who can challenge that?
What is the basis of your optimism given that 10's of millions of shares very recently bought in below $2 and have a fat profit as they watch the stock drop? Do you know how much the shelf offering is? Its not a minor amount and unlikely for CEO not to trigger it as he also watches the stock slip. This is the only horse holding Geron up so he will need the next one to last for the "years" he is already on record saying it will take to prepare for an FDA approval request.
After the secondary I think GERN will make an excellent very long term hold.
Nobody but CEO can accurately predict but some factors are already there for you to look at:
1 How much cushion have they needed in the past above cash burn?
2 How much did multi-center studies cost in the past and compare that to the current relatively low cash balance
3 How sensitive is the CEO to a dwindling stock price post ASH? Why wouldn't he accelerate his plans while the stock is still relatively high?
4 GERON has shown no real interest in allowing anyone to control them or their jobs so buyer would have to be raider not friendly joint venturer based on history and last few conferences.
WOW - Now if thats not pumping I don't know what is but the question you should ask yourself is at what price will Geron issue the secondary and why wouldn't that price be lower than today? By definition the secondary will be prior to FDA applications for approval won't it?
Look at the volume that brought GERN from $1 to $6 before making that conclusion.
GEron itself will start worrying about getting new cash from secondary if it drops much farther which could accelerate their timing.
News is out and good but stock is a financial vehicle which does not do well when a large secondary is providing an overhang. hedge fund and new buyers have substantial profit over less than a 2 month investment so lots of reasons for some to take profit and catch up later when tests on their way to prepare for FDA approval which unfortunately in a very long way off.
Not necessarily. Longs who have held forever may not want to ride it down through the next secondary. New owners have a 400% profit they can take and the hedge fund guy who bought in at $3 has millions he can pull out already earned. Its not just shorts!
Hedge funds and recent buyers just got a 400% profit while many longs are still in the hole on basis and may be losing faith as secondary likely sooner than later as multi-center trials get planned in first quarter. No evidence Mayo Clinic expanded its studies so given they are closest to drug this presents a large question for big pharma to consider before jumping in.
IMHO retail coming in while hedge funds and recent buyers selling with nice profit.
STOP referring to shareholders as bagholders! Hedge funds and recent buyers are probably taking profits ahead of a major secondary is all. IMHO no need for insults!
IMHO you should not try to insult shareholders by labeling. The news is out and its good but not timely for revenues so CEO has no choice but to do already approved secondary . Obviously stock will dilute but in a few years the value after FDA approval will likely be immensely higher than today so people can wait or buy in after the secondary. That doesn't make them bagholders!
I was surprised there was no mention of Mayo Clinic expanding its research beyond the current study area. That is puzzling and I hope CEO explains that at next shareholder meeting.
IMHO Retail investors coming in while hedge funds and recent buyers at lower levels are selling
Does your conclusion jive with available supply of SWU worldwide? Isn't pretty obvious that sequestration along with adequate SWU is going to prevent D.O.E. from continuing to donate to USEC? Isn't buying SWU from RUSSIA kind of a contradiction from your nationalistic justification for domestic produced SWU?