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Apple Inc. Message Board

rknipe 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 6, 2013 12:08 AM Member since: Jan 5, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Macro look at iPhone Units

    by bbandassoc Jan 5, 2013 8:01 PM
    rknipe rknipe Jan 6, 2013 12:08 AM Flag

    I discount the cash since I'm not buying the company to break up. It doesn't mean that much to me but for sure it means something to apple's management. It's just my opinion and because of it I'm on the sidelines. If they announce a use of that cash it could be a positive. It could also be a negative if they do something crazy.

  • Reply to

    Macro look at iPhone Units

    by bbandassoc Jan 5, 2013 8:01 PM
    rknipe rknipe Jan 5, 2013 11:25 PM Flag

    I come at it from a different angle.

    1) AAPL gave guidance of $11.75 for the quarter
    2) Apple has often blow away earnings so they clearly order more material than needed for that guidance..upside potential

    Now add in information observed in the quarter

    1) Wal-mart and apple discounted the iPhone and big iPad (I was shocked)
    2) Apple cut orders from their supply chain (DB & others)
    3) Iphone5 got off to a good start (5M)
    4) Pre-orders in china looked good (2M)

    The positives and negatives of the in quarter information appear to me to cancel out. So with that, I'm gonna assume their EPS guidance is probably the closest to the truth. At $11.75 per share, to me that's a $560 stock (12x). I'm not long or short but on the sidelines because the risk IMHO is too high of a negative surprise (actual iPhone numbers in the mid 40's, iPad mini taking too many below the line dollars from the iPad total). If their EPS drops below $11.75, it could be a mid 400 stock.

    disclosure: I own iphones, ipads, macbooks, their stuff

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