New moniker for someone who has no clues; but does have an obvious agenda on the RBY message board..... why change your moniker or are you that pathetic?????
the price of NRF has nothing to do about the annual % yield. Revenue, cash flow and profitability will determine what the distribution is in the future for NRF. Do analysts project increased or decreased revenue for NRF in 2016? I would hope they know more than the common investor does about where NRF share price and distribution is headed.......
Shorts believe NRF is headed lower - why do they think this??
By the way NRF is my 3rd biggest holding and I certainly want both its share price and distribution to move upwards. I increased my holdings by over 10% in the last week..... but as in the case of oil trusts (royalty or reits), never say never.......
First NRF's profile and key statistics are again listed on YAHOO. Some data as follows for 12 months to june 30, 2015
profit margin -11.21%
return on equity -5.54%
gross profit $355.59M
net income available to common shares -$290.67M
diluted EPS -$1.06/sh
total debt $11.76B
yearly interest at 4% on debt $470M
operating cash flow $165.45M
levered free cash flow $462.44M
short % of shares 9.66%
# shares outstanding 364.86M
Annual dividend $1.60/sh
dividend payout at $1/60/sh/yr $583.7M
Not certain what CAD in 2016 will be but these are facts and analysts do not project significant growth in 2016. Based on these facts is the dividend sustainable in 2016....... your guess is as good as mine....
key statistics for NRF are no longer present on YAHOO and they do show an annualized loss of over $1.00 per unit for the last year. Distribution is based on positive cash flow not necessarily profitability as is the case with many companies which pay high dividends and when write-offs are included actually have quarterly or yearly losses..........
Cases in point would be some of the oil REITS that have huge losses (BBEP, LINE, etc) because of the write down of assets as probably has happened with NRF's properties in Europe.
Never say never to NRF cutting its quarterly distribution in 2016 as its present share price and chart trendology suggest that it is a possibility - not a certainty......
Are these are the same individuals that award themselves huge quantities of shares and would not tell a small fib???
I am not saying that a distribution cut is in the cards, but think no one would be surprised if we receive $0.35 or so per quarter in 2016. No one knows for certain what the future holds and if economies go into recession in Europe and Asia - which will affect the USA's economy negatively - what will NRF do to its quarterly distribution - never say never....
And how low do the charts indicate NR is going to go? Looks like support at $14 to me.........
Does anyone beside me think that in 2016 the NRF quarterly distribution has a good chance of being decreased? I not how do you explain the sharp plunge in its unit price?????
Realistically dividends are not likely to resume until the price of oil is above $60/bbl which is not likely until 2017 or later although unforeseen world events could drive the price of oil above this price before the end 2015. On a short term basis the price of WTI is likely to tag $35/bbl
I will gradually add a few thousand shares over the next year at sub $3/unit prices in an attempt to get my cost basis to less than $9/unit...........20,000 shares with a monthly distribution of a nickel will only be $1,000.
the 2Q 2015 looked very good. Cash flow is from 1 month prior for oil & 2 months prior for natural gas. The 3Q 2015 is gonna be ugly because of reduced cash flow.
My opinion is that it is good to prepare for the coming storm and pay down debt. If oil prices recover this winter, LINE can resume monthly distributions of ten cents per unit or whatever the cash flow will support. Not likely we will see $100/bbl oil in the foreseeable future so the return to $0.25/unit/month is unlikely to ever happen again......
40 gravity sweet crude was trading for $37.50/bbl in Wyoming yesterday and it will go lower on a short term basis. Ugly, but t is what it is. The bust cycle for oil has usually lasted longer than the boom cycle since I entered the oil industry as a geologist back in the mid 1970's....
guess you cannot read as the distribution was released on Thursday evening 44 cents/unit distribution which is about 2/3rds of the last distribution which is why PER is down......
SDT has distributable income of just over 30 cents/unit for the quarter with 64% of the gross income coming from derivatives No hedging after December 2015 so the distribution will fall dramatically in 2016 unless the price of oil has a major increase....... Without the derivative adjustment which put oil above $200/bbl (not certain how that is possible) the distribution would have been 10 cents/unit or slightly lower......
Check my math and see if this is not correct?????
totally different critters as they receive a royalty which will continue. The bad news is that the royalty for SDR increased by about 25% and over 50% for SDT because of hedging that will terminate at the end of 2015. You forgot to mention PER which is also a SD royalty REIT...
concensus looks like ~ 24 cents........ hope so as it is better than my model of 22 cents....
Good luck to all SDR unit holders :)
The 1Q 2015 saw a distribution of 29 cent/unit. This was increased by hedging gains so this quarter will be lower because of the price of oil and decreased production.
My guess is that the distribution for the 2Q will be 22 cents/unit which is a decrease of ~24.2% on a quarterly basis...
What are everyone elses thoughts????
We will have to disagree about who knows what. The one unknown is how smart are the RBY mining engineers. I have had the pleasure of working with a few who were extremely good and a few who were not but were still in charge.
You are technically correct in calling the shaft a stope but I will always call a mining shaft a shaft - guess that gives you an indication of my age. Most of my career has been in the oil & gas industry in development an exploration. Have also been the geologist in charge of a fairly large gold mining project which produced quite a few ounces of gold back in the 1980's when gold retreated to $425/oz. Prefer oil as it is a lot easier to find commercial quantities of oil than it is to find and develop a commercial gold mine.
Time will tell if RBY's mine is viable at the POG that is present over the next two years......
Good luck and good investing....
You are correct in that the grade should be questioned and that will determine if RBY goes to $1.50 or sub$0.50 by the end of the year. Sewells believes that the ore grade will eventually be proven to be above 12 gpt as are the nearby producers of GG adjacent to RBY's Red Lake Project. Valid assumption for a coarse gold deposit in which the grade is highly variable. The odds are tht Steve would be correct if RBY was using a different mining method in which they only followed the ore that exceeds 5 gpt
With the wider shafts reqired for the mining method that RBY's "brilliant" engineers have decided to employ, RBY will likely process a lot of ore in the 3 gpt range which will increase gold recoveries; but decrease the average processed ore grade and subsequently increase the cost to produce each ounce of gold....... just an ignorant geologists opinion.
And you might be surprised at how ignorant someone such as Bogfit is concerning mining, mining exploration and development when compared to the OLDMINER or SEWELLS...... again just an ignorant geologists opinion...... who thinks gold is headed for $1020/oz or lower.....
Good luck with your investing
I wish I were in last place in this contest. World economies plus new production from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran will dictate where the price of oil will be at year end. Worst case is about $33/bbl and best case is about $70/bbl for WTI.
RBY is a major question mark as to where its share price will be at the end of 2015. Gold has resumed its downward trend and appears to be heading for my multi year projection in the $1,020/oz range. Should that happen RBY may tag US$0.50/share. If gold should move upwards to $1,250/ozbecause of a weakening US$ (not likely) or some unforeseen world event and the ore grade that is processed turns out to be above 12 gpt, RBY could see $1.70/sh by year end. At present my projection would be very bearish.........
Good luck and good investing (pickof the month is AAPL).....