they do not have to borrow to cover distribution they have a 1.35 coverage for 2015 and a 1.3 coverage for 2016 and will havee enough cash flow to pay 70 Million per year each of those years so you are giving bad rumors.
nomadinx, I think part of his logic, mine and the markets is that if they do not have to suspend distribution (which at least one SA author has documented with a table based on various oil prices, the hedges and the cash flow to cover and loan requirements) then this should go to $10. I think that is why you have seen a substantial rally along with todays distribution announcement and the basing of oil is causing and will continue to support. The dopes may well be the shorts that have not taken profits when they should have sub $5 and continue to hold and lose more of the profit they had. Things do change and you need to be aware of that regardless of being long or short I was a bear here until I started buying at $8 and on down. cost average at 7 now and will drop another 8 cents in 10 more days
I said that it could go to 10 this year yesterday based on current distribution, it will have to raise distribution to go any higher. IMO but I am around til 20s
I agree they send a form that tells the CPA where to put every entry, it is not a problem except waiting for the stupid K-1 s
in the next 20 yrs you will see the next Depression and PSEC will not survive. MHO. It is not a stock as such it is a bond and has very little way to increase its NAV so it is range bound, you are collecting all earnings so it can not gain value besides its range around NAV.
and several people have made good suggestions on reasons for this but the oils I follow, cop, memp, apa are up also although not as much percentagewise, I have heard the Saudis have said oil was low enough but cant confirm. I still think this is a reasonable possibility considering how most oils rallied today and AH is still up combined with shorts covering, dead cat bounce, oil up slightly, whatever, I know it made me a lot today and for both of my sons I sold some jan 2016 $5 puts at open. That should be a gift.
Here is another fact to consider, on every front since the ESRX announcement GILD has beaten ABBV, first they get several PBMs to grant them exclusivity or prime choice location, they get several European countries to side with them and then they do end plays around ESRX with the insurance cos that ESRX serves. With all this going on then script numbers will not improve because the drug is not superior or even equal. You have to take 6 pills vs one and you have worse side affects. If there were no side affects it is still more difficult to get patients to properly take 6 pills vs one and that alone would make doctors prescribe and insurance cos to approve the one pill treatment. Because compliance is important to success and ins wants success in order to have more expenses the one pill will always be superior then add the side affects and patient complaints over them and both doctors and ins will balk. If i had Hep C and know what I do and a doctor prescribed me Vpak I would question who was paying him and switch doctors. That is how I feel and why I switch from owning both to just one.
this was fun to watch, it is the first time I have been long when there was a short squeeze and that is sure what this looked like today
I have seen no PR or anything in the 10k to give this suggestion, I think the posters making it up are misleading people to try to get out or to pump, as far as I know the major non reporters to IMS are govt and
Walmart.and a few minor players, most drugs are bought through distributors (about 4 to 6 in the country) and they report. It would not benefit ABBV to not report unless they felt report was poor. Hype brings success look at aapl. You were more fortunate than I, I sold a little earlier at 48 when it didnt immediately pop then it began to smell I was looking for a 20 dollar pop and the dollar didnt get it. I am sorry to seem argumentive but this was disappointing. and I really dislike people using profanity as it is a little childish and not a way to have a civil conversation so I laid into him hard for that and his bogus statements that could not be supported. I dont care if it is bullish or bearish just as long as it is truthful..
I drew the conclusion because the way ENTA sales go down is if V pak doesnt sell, If Vpak was highly successful then this would be a raging buy.without the sales it could go down significantly. IT only has Vpak for income.
the numbers were reported on friday 1/10, 1/17 and 1/24 for the weeks before. the numbers are bad and I will explain in several different ways, first sovaldi/harvoni numbers are growing more than ABBv is selling and they are over 9400 per week but more important what were the sales of sovaldi at week three (harvoni was so large I wont even bother) and those were over 10 times the amount that ABBV is selling.
Since the street was expecting 15 to 20% of HCV treatments you can see why currently it is selling off. When you figure in the discounted price I will assume they are receiving less than $60k per treatment or $20k per script since scripts are usually filled for only a month of pills.
181 X 20000 X 5% is 181k dollars not a small amount for us but miniscule for the biopharma industry while GILD is pulling in 180 million per week Does that put it in perspective? I am not trying to bash just explain why things are not doing well and why I exited.and why it could go back to 20s because milestones are not repeatable income and are extra ordinary items discounted from earnings. The fact is that if the sales dont pick up dramatically that once the milestones are history that they will still have negative earnings. This drug can not compete with Harvoni or even less so with their next generation drug
I have told you why Enta is going down, but you fail to listen, I am not speculating the Vpak script numbers are published and they are pathetic.
The royalties are at most 6% so your statement was ABBV would like to see low sales so that they could buy ENTA, so they are willing to give up 94% of sales over a 6 % royalty to buy enta cheap RIDICULOUS if you meant something else then explain as that is how I read it.
I was very long ENTA and sold after launch when it didnt go up as I had expected. I dont ever short stocks. This stock was just very disappointing to me as it did not respond as you say to large milestones and it is presently a one trick pony and that pony is lethargic.It could go back to the 20s and that is a sincere warning to all longs and I again am not short
stock, he attacked me first with his profanity and stupidity, he hasnt made an intelligent knowledgable comment in the several days since he attacked me. He is a pompom idiot and when he gets smarter or i should say IF AND IF he gets less foul mouth then he will get the respect he deserves. The street and market know what you are saying and they still dont like the numbers, where do you get the notion that IMS does not have ESRX numbers?? IMS is usually only 20% underreported on any drug they report on and that is very reliable and the market knows it Why dont you? or why do you and others continue to bring up an irrelevant subject as every knowledgalbe investor knows that the IMS numbers are 20% low or are you saying Vpak is unusual from all other drugs in reporting that ESRX reports all other drugs but not VPAK that is ridiculous.
numbers are known and IMS gives them weekly for the three weeks reported they have been 57.117.181 and the street doesnt like them nor does the market, you can try to white wash it by saying IMS underreports but everyone knows that and still doesnt like the numbers, you can say it takes 2 months to get data but this data is bad when compared to other drugs and the worry is it doesnt improve enough. 3 major down days should tell you that the pompoms are wrong and that dying hope doesnt make well for investments. I know I have been telling you this for 2 weeks.