lyonwin I gave you numbers but here goes again the reasons to sell 1) you can make more money .elsewhere 2) estimates of sales keep dropping from $6B preapproval to $2B now and they havent sold very much to date from sketchy script numbers. the $48 M announced in the CC is baxically 700 discounted scripts for stocking 3)using the $2B in sales and a conservative 4% royalty which I believe to be fair on that sales number you get 80 million in revenue then take out company costs of staying alive and you are down to $60 million, but you say their expenses arent that high well wait til the bonus checks start flowing and talk to me again at the middle of the year. that is $3.30 per share, Now what PE do we use for a company that has one source of income that will be going down according to Yee in 2016, I would say 12 is as high as I would go and that is more than I would pay and that is $39.60. Untill it proves that script numbers are higher and theirfore sales can exceed or even meet that $2B assumption or they come out with another income producer I dont see how it can do anything better than go sideways and most likely down further before sideways. I like stocks that I think can go up at least 25% in a year. I would take your money here and put it in BBEP which if they get past April and dont have to suspend their distribution which I feel is safe and oil doesnt plumment more which looks iMO as if it is basing will be at $10 by fall and still paying 10% mostly tax free. GLTU and thanks for being curteous to us non pumpers. I am not a short, i think shorting should be outlawed.
musky man, good to hear you are still long here sad to hear you are still long IPCI i took my 100k hit and moved on. My second biggest holding now is BBEP looking for a triple in the next 3yrs. but GILd is still no 1 for me. You should look at history on BBEP I beleive that if they can sustain their distribution this year past april that they will go to 10 dollars and it does look like oil is basing here. GLTU
irony you really need to get out in the real world, I took a missionary trip to China and on our one day sightseeing tour I asked the Chinese tour guide while we were in Tienemen square why are there so many economic levels of people in CHina if you are communist and he said "We are not a communist country we are a democracy run by communists who make up 10% of our population and suck off the rest of us" The chinese people think we are their best friends and allies so dont listen to the politicians. You do know that JFK gave us the biggest tax breaks in history dont you?? and just like Reagan we had good economy
for years. I saw my dad pay 80% in taxes pre JFK and I can tell you it was a disincentive to him and his production to do more when he could have. Warren Buffet is one of those that speaks out of both sides of his mouth. Before I retired I made the 500k a year and I paid 200k in taxes so dont tell me . look at what the stats are most taxes are paid by the wealthy and upper middle class but you are correct do not believe the papers they are worse than TASS news agency. Obama has hurt the middle class and poor worse than any president in my lifetime.
leaving parties out, it is the corruption of all politicians that has caused us to go down hill along with the entrapment of most social programs. I am for doing away with unemployment and welfare and instead guaranteeing a job at
$10 per hr, you work or you dont get anything welfare and unemployment cost us at least $10 per hr so I say put them to work doing the things that need to be done clean streets if you dont want to do that job then find one but no freebies and sitting on your #$%$.
a merger would not help us I sure would vote against it. they arent going to pay the 20 dollars I will get in 3 yrs so who wants to sell out for 10 dollars and who wants to buy when they are shutting things down everywhere? dont you understand every market has buyers when things are good but no one wants to buy when the blood is in the street. that is the way it is everywhere. My dad said along time ago that when cattle are high everyone is trying to buy but when they start down no one at the auction house raises their hand. everyone is in a survival mode now and not out looking for deals
december was bad for me took me from a 25% gain to a 7% gain but I am up 12 % for january so got a decent amount of it back and things look good Maybe things will be better in February Bill happy valentines day
buy may $14 sell may $16 at a $1.25 debit to bet stock at
$15.25 or make a 60% return on your money if stock closes over $16 in mid may. Seems like a no brainer since I feel earnings are going to beat big.
question, if POZN gets a new partner for the spot GLX walked from, what type of pop would you expect?? I see this happening in this year towards fall
it is why I have loaded up heavily on this stock, enough that I expect it to make me close to 7 figures
WHEN oil returns to realistic prices. I am willing to wait the 2 to 3 yrs it will take to triple and willing to sit with a position currently in the red and may even add to it as funds come available. Anyone older than 40 should realize that this is a temporary situation and the opportunities are great. emotions pushed it here and they will push it back up. I expect $10 before year end on this stock if they can sustain the distribution that we currently have.
abbv is down over 10% since fda approval and was down 4% on earnings and has been in a steady down trend. There are reasons for this as we have discussed You can ride them out I prefer to watch from the sideline when I can properly figure them out in advance.
I do not rely on analysts either as they are suspect on their allegance I only said what the analysts of those that were pumping where now stating and where they had started. I use some analysts reports to give me an idea of what is expected by the street and whisper numbers so when the announcement comes I can see how the stock is most likely to react. I have as you have stated seen some very poor analysis. An example is last quarters miss (nonmiss) by GILD when there was a one time charge of 41 cents that no one expected or analyzed for Obamacare and because of that they said they missed when if you take out the one time charge they beat. but the stock went down That was a buying op. Me, I had a very large position in this but when the FDA approval came and it did not react I decided it had been overhyped on sales prospects and sold at a small profit near $50/share sale price. Now you may well be correct on the long term for this stock as they seem to have some very smart researchers but the problem is near term and how to make money for this year. I dont own stocks I dont feel cant go up 25% in the next 12 months or 12 months since the date of purchase. my annual returns for last 10 yrs are near 24% so I get close 2014 took my average down as the biotech breakdown in december took me from a 25% to a 7% in 4 weeks. I wish you well but this no longer fits my criteria but things may change and I will be back as I like management. I just dont like poor posts with no insight to what is really going on or misinform so my question to you is what in the CC did you like because the market didnt??
harpo it is my understanding that cwrasmith is partly correct but you also have to consider three different cost pictures, #1 you have overhead costs such as administration, interest. depreciation costs that will continue whether you shut a well down or not # 2 you have the cost of acquiring leases, drilling wells and readying for production these costs are being cut by reducing capex #3 you have the cost of pumping it out of the ground, maintenance and delivering it these costs are about $30 per barrel for BBEP so they cover some of #1 and #2 that are already spent until the cost gets below that level. but it doesnt make sense to drill for more oil or buy more leases at these prices. I doubt that you get administration to cut pay due to oil prices but if they made more then they would get raises.
actually what you are saying is what I was advocating quit listening to pumpers and do you research and dont think the street is stupid, the market is telling you this is not the great investment I once thought it was and somewhere my original thesis was wrong. NOw we are down according to analysts that the have quoted many times before to $2 billion in sales at 4% or 80 million revenue to and that is the max as it goes down in 2016. Sure the analysts could be wrong but they could be still too high as well as too low The pumpers would have you believe you should give a PE multiple ot one time milestones but I have never seen the market do that. The like repeatable income and now that 2016 will be lower that will be what they are looking at a depreciating income level until new drugs come out. So now with income of 60 million or $3 per share this looks like the current PE is about right to a little high but they dont have that income yet. Dispute the numbers rather than the fact it doesnt pump your stock It is why I got out because I dont think the numbers will be met they keep falling. Started at $6 billion now $2 that is a huge difference.
the problem is that no one believes that they can realize those goals with the poor launch they have had so far and the inferiority of their drug to harvoni
I did not give him a red thumb but should, If the call was so great why is ABBV down so much today.?? You had better be looking through the smoke and seeing why everyone else is selling.
you had better quit confusing the pumpers with facts it will get you red thumbs. That was mostly distribution to suppliers, it was about 700 scripts worth of supply which is a low amount.Dec numbers give no clarity to the actual usage. ABBV lost money that should be a concern especially when the script numbers appear to be low so far.
something is wrong with that number, they only got approved at end of dec so that would have to be a stocking number and irrelevant except for hype because I doubt they did 700 scripts first week