at this point rev growth is important and what is coming in pipeline rather than a rev miss, good guidance and upbeat news on 4K will make this go up. I was impressed to see that all analysts feel merger goes down and closes next quarter.
looks like all 3 analysts are figuring the merger happens end of 3rd quarter as 4th q is 280M revs
with the rebalancing and the change from one index to another several stocks had big volume and they are trading to theirself from one index to another. this will have no affect on the stock at all mostly a bookkeeping situation IMO
think about your comments, if the tankers are being used for storage how can they increase produciton, where would they put it?? Do you think they would build huge storage capacity for something they cant sell or ship? I think it more than likely is rhetoric at this point. That doesnt mean I think oil will go up very soon. but increasing production is not something that is currently happening. They plan on increasing as we decrease but world wide production is dropping currently and will continue to do so for several yrs.
the most activity seems to be in the month of dec this year. large movement of contracts at all levels. Is that what you are seeing also.
i think it will easily by dec 2016 but in order to do so by dec this year it will need to start showing a decent profit and more potential profit by 3rd quarter report. While this is not out of the realm it is quite a leap which I feel wont happen til mid 2016. The 4k deal is ramping up well with start in july this will give a lot of progress to reaching that goal 3rd quarter especially with the salesforce of BRLI pushing it prior to merger. and OPK picking up some of the costs thereof or paying a fee fpr them doing so. This has already from what I hear been worked out that they will begin selling 4k in july, so Dr Frost is actively pursuing that goal. I am still expecting end of 1st or 2nd quarter of 2016 but all BRLI stockholders wont start their long term holding period until closing so they wont be eager to sell til 2017
the arbitrage spread has not shrunk. That is amazing to me. the arb just got better imo to do now than earlier. I put on more brli $35 calls today and sold more opk 14 calls. This is going to be a sweet deal and holding long brli calls without corresponding opk calls sold I am getting to really love this stock although not as rabid as some of the real long time bulls but i may get there.
wont happen, if you ever looked at your hospitlal or ins payment you would realize that they wont get 400 from insurance companies. the high figure is to negotiate from. I can remember a hospital visit I had 8 yrs ago and it was negotiated down by ins to 32 cents on dollar and it hasnt gotten any better for the medical providers. direct purchases will be the most expensive IMO unless you take off the insurance premium not paid. also discounts are not figured for medicare or medicaid. which will be a lot of this testing.
this means you need to use a $400 figure instead of the 1195 figure for revenue predictions, the ins cos get big discounts.
do you have accessto the IMS script numbers? is so could you post them weekly ? if not what makes you think that it couldnt be better script numbers from the larger salesforce finally kicking in? appreciate your thoughts and answers to these
you couldnt buy those valls for $6,30 they wpuld have cost you 6,90 good luck I hope you got your 40 puts sold early. I have a large number of november 35 calls on Brli and sold a lot of opk 14 dec calls but net long 32 brli calls on the arb at average price of 7.30 which gets me into opk at 15.39 counting commissions. which I am happy with as i want to be long term holder of OPK the arb was 80 brli/220 opk and that will be enough to get me down to a cost of $12.73 on my remaining OPK that I will own.or 8800 shares and I will be patiently waiting for my double or triple.
my guess is that todays move is due to presciption numbers improving significantly due to salesforce finally getting it together but I dont have access unfortunately, wish someone would post it.
doing away with the distribution and using it to buyback stock would be an extremely bullish move IMO.but then I have been saying they need to cut distribution to zero for months.
you would have to be crazy to buy nov 50 for $1.25 when you could buy nov 35 for 6.80 someone needs to put the math to that
it has nothing to do with the short in BRLI it is strictly arbitrage, if you dont understand that then you need to be in mutual funds. People buy BRLI and sell OPK for huge profits with little risk or money in play when they have large accounts. You also have MF selling short against the box on OPK they own because tehy dont want to increase their position when the brli merger goes into place. This is M&A 101. NO other conspiracy theory to propose here, it happens every time you have one of these mergers.