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Apple Inc. Message Board

rlbeard6734 874 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jul 17, 2008
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  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 10:08 PM Flag

    you want to read them early before open this will respond according to that reprot based on vivomo sales as it has actively on previous quarters. If sales are huge expect a 50 to 70 cent pop

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    they need to make a contribution to his royal highness king obama

  • Reply to

    Waitin' on April

    by slawsonjames Feb 24, 2015 5:16 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    personally I think the deal was worked out when they made the distribution cut at first of year and it was approved by WF and it will be a non event except for the positive reaction on stock price knowing that distribution is safe for the year or two going forward as long as oil doesnt fall out of sight to the bottom again

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    i dont loan i just borrow lol I would only loan if I was using your money and getting juice from it. never borrow for pleasure only income.

  • Reply to


    by rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 4:17 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 8:29 PM Flag

    i hope you make more lol

  • Reply to

    wake up bbep

    by mrkenusa Feb 24, 2015 1:44 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    i added a little last week and some more today I plan on holding to 20 so [ day to day is not really that important although i would be disappointed to see it go below 5 again. Waiting for the next distribution in a week.or so

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    I went long this morning for a trade for the next few months. got in early this morning at 35.25.

  • Reply to

    Insider buying on open market

    by biotechbeagle Feb 17, 2015 8:00 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    I only consider buys and never pay attention to sales as buying says they are making an investment and selling says they spend more money than they make.

  • Reply to

    Script data

    by rlbeard6734 Feb 6, 2015 3:53 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    having been in several pharmas with new drugs coming to market I can tell you it is not insignificant on the shelving, I thought it would be also on S&H but it is not. there are regional distributors and they stock not the local pharmacy. I will assume
    abbv is dumb as you say because they tried to sell their drug based on cost and not on how good it was by starting a price war. I dont think anyone would dispute this other than you and a few really diehards. I think they are hiding numbers because they dont want to be embarassed for their mistakes but it will come out just as they tried to paint a false picture by saying how much they sold when most was stocking. What happens with you when the stocking in one week in december was more than they sold in this quarter will you say oh it was stocking and you cant compare that or will you say people didnt like the drug and quit buying it. by saying it wasnt stocking is building up for a serious disappointment., I always thought super pumpers did more harm than super dumpers as the pumpers build up expectations that disappoint and cause price crashes, i saw this many times in AAPL while I held it from 80 to 650. I would rather low ball and get a great surprise But we dont agree that the numbers dont come close they come close to what one can normally extrapolate, The numbers are routinely 20% under so that can be added the only other surprise will be how much over that 20%. and even after earnings you wont know because of the discounts and turbidity that ABBV does. That alone keeps me out of ABBV.

  • Reply to

    Script data

    by rlbeard6734 Feb 6, 2015 3:53 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    i think that is true for sovaldi but i dont know about harvoni but thanks for that update

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    does it look like we are tradihg to a 106 pinning level for weeklies and upcoming monthlies

  • Reply to

    Script data

    by rlbeard6734 Feb 6, 2015 3:53 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    I try not to have any fiction or emotion other than that to make a profit, I try not to fall in love with a company and let it cloyud my vision of what is going on. The closest I ever came in last 10yrs of falling in love was with AAPL which went from 80 to 700 before I exited at 650 for missing numbers Stay clear and non emotional

  • Reply to

    Script data

    by rlbeard6734 Feb 6, 2015 3:53 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    i have an order in to buy this morning but to answer your question, the numbers in january
    CC were including stocking inventory and therefore they are suspect for actual prescription numbers, it is a shame IMO that ABBv leads to confusion and misrepresentation and non clarity by messing with typical reporting, IMS and Symphony typically are in the 20% underreporting range except for Vpak which will be off more, how much more is a guessing game that is hurting this stock for now. My guess is that it will be in the range of an additional 5 % more than the regular 20%, I arrive at that by looking at the size of ESRX and backing out the parts of one of its formularies and the insurance companies that have struck deals around ESRX. At this point it is an educated guess but I have some money lying around and feel ENTA has been oversold and that the numbers even that are reported are getting better and that this has room to run at least $4 to $5 more. It is currently a short term trade for me but if things work out could become longer. I have such a huge position if GILD it is also a protection play to a very small degree. I really think you should be suspect of all numbers and give it a harder look for accuracy rather than hope. I would rather be blindsided on the upside than the downside. Gild numbers are past the stocking or inventory stage and they have more clarity in the numbers reported to regular standards. When they first came out I thought with the price that reporting may be higher than normal because of those that dont report such as Walmart and I felt that not many scripts as usual for this priced drug would be filled at WMT but the numbers where pretty well in normal underreporting range for US. I hope this helps you understand the question better.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 11:40 PM Flag

    most of the large carriers from ESRX have opted out for Gild as their preferred drug so the 5% number you use is probably very close.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 11:37 PM Flag

    twitter? are you kidding that is like a message board. lmao. they dont know that half of the companies you listed are from ESRX and double counting. WOW

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    i really doubt that even 15% are blocked as ESRX's major carriers have deals with GILD and they represent a very small amount of the market on what is left.
    AS stated above the dec report was very misleading due to most of sales being stocking and the next quarter report will be very informative as to the real numbers. my guess and it is a guess is that the numbers are probably 25% underreported as IMS and symphony normally underreport by 20% so I am giving them 5% more for the games they are playing with ESRX which is a shame on both. but then the numbers for GiLD are underreported by 20% also. So a 5% adjustment for comparisons sake to IMs numbers and comparing the two is as far as I would go. CDMEAZE name me the carriers for ESRX and which ones dont have deals for GILD and how much they represent of the total of ESRX to back up your claims as they are bogus.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    these numbers are your imagination and support nothing as you are not an an analyst nor do you have any supporting documentation for these guesses and they are wrong and I will point out how,
    what is 28.4% decided?
    anthem United and Aetna are a part of ESXR so you are counting them twice and all three have agreements that circumvent ESRX and go with Gild. CVS also went with Gild. I do not remember seeing what Humana has done as of yet. As far as I have read the only ones going with ABBV are ESRX (limited by the carriers it supports that opted out) and the
    State of Missouri where I live and am ashamed that they decided to use the inferior treatment to save money.

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    i cant thank you enough for mentioning POZN as i have been trading it for last two weeks and it led me to PTX through reading more about hznp pozn and pozn's cnnection to ptx but those 2 stocks have made me 30k in last two weeks mostly just holding PTX as I see a lot of similarities between it and HZNP management earnings are coming for all 3 this week GLTu and all longs here I have twice as many shares of HZNP as PTX or POZN so this will be a big week. I share all longs enthusiasm on HZNP after sitting through the sell off last summer

  • Reply to

    SLXP buy out

    by phil_inarizona Feb 21, 2015 6:34 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 5:14 AM Flag

    I do know various brokerages have different rules and sometimes they tell you one thing about IRS but it isnt true. I know that Amoripise wont let m e do spreads in roth but eoption will. but neither has let me buy calls but will let me sell covered calls. I never playedy it by my accountants as they dont need to look at my Roth for tax purposes. But thanks again as if I decide I wnat to do calls I will know who to open an account with.

  • Reply to

    SLXP buy out

    by phil_inarizona Feb 21, 2015 6:34 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2015 5:09 AM Flag

    thanks for the quick response, I have never used scotttrade but ameriprise, eoption and ameritrade have problems with it. For consideration of your high tax bracket you may want to consider on your personal account taking position of the stock on those 36 calls you bought on 7/31 and holding until long term gain to reduce tax bill by half. Your hold date will be 7/31 if you exercise the calls.and your cost basis will be $9.80. It would save you a bunch in taxes. Just a thought.

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