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Apple Inc. Message Board

rlbeard6734 322 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jul 17, 2008
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  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 9, 2014 12:20 AM Flag

    I like BBEP because I am familiar with it and have watched it for 5 yrs I got in in 2009 at 8 and sold in 2011 or 12 at 20.50 and have been waiting for this opportunity and the company is bigger and better set to go higher than the previous high once this oil situation is over My understanding is that MEMP is better hedged but I am not very familiar with it nor how much it has sold off. I am certain in my mind that if I buy BBEP sub 8 that I will see a double or triple in 3 yrs at which point i will cash in again. I hope that answers your question But I am expecting a dividend cut and hope they cut it soon to mitigate cash flow and concentrate on paying debt down I actually believe that it would help share price once the initial blow is over from the announcement because most investors know it needs to be done.. just like I am sure that even with the most bullish of PSEC the wise ones knew they would eventually cut the distribution and I applaud management here for doing so To me as it was to Slick it was a signal to buy but I will keep my powder dry for BBEP because PSEC wont triple or double.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 9, 2014 12:12 AM Flag

    one of my points was this is not an investment but a CD unlike most of your other stocks that you hope for capital gain in. The only way you can get capital gain here is to trade as it is usually range bound except in unusual sell offs or run ups like this. I think management did very well in the decisions they made today and pointed that out. But never the less this is not a stock but a CD that varies in price and as such is not an investment to me except on a short term basis.

  • Reply to

    The Message not fully out yet!

    by markzenr Dec 8, 2014 7:27 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 11:42 PM Flag

    this is not surprising to me there are a lot of drugs that are marketed and coming out regularly and to keep totally up with all of them is difficult before Sovaldi was approved I talked to a lot of doctors at our annual xmas party and none had heard of it but a few have recently asked me how I knew about it so soon as I am a dentist on staff and I told them because I owned stock in the company. NOw if the doctor specialized in liver then I would be seriously switching doctors but not a GP they normally wouldnt be the one treating this except for a few working beyond IMO thier scope.

  • Reply to

    ABBV PRICE ANNOUCEMENT DECEMBER 22 ??????

    by oilbarron2000 Dec 8, 2014 8:46 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 11:37 PM Flag

    they will announce price when they get approval would be my guess, I think approval may come out as early as dec 19th

  • Reply to

    Options...

    by cd3313 Dec 8, 2014 2:29 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 11:36 PM Flag

    from the prices at the time of sales it looks like the person bought the calls and sold the puts this is very bullish and the move will move greatly with upward momentum as the puts would go worthless and the calls gain value. This person doesnt mind owning the stock at 105.72 cost basis but doesnt want to commit the money for the purchase yet but wants the bet that it will be above 105 by dec 20th if it goes to 110 he will make 10 million dyollars on the option wager and had to put up only 40% of the value of the stock as margin or if it is a fund they could use equity for margin and not put up anything. Regardless it is a very bullish bet and only loses money if Gild is below 105.72 which is a bout where the stock price was at the time they did it.
    I would say it was very bullish and they didnt push up stock price by trying to buy 2000000 shares but someone could have to deliver. On ya smaller scale I used to do this type of trade for leverage on AAPL when it was rallying from 80 to 600 area. it made a lot of money for me.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    when the decision to raise it was made oil was nearly $20 higher, things change daily and they could cut it to zero if things dont improve during next month. Nothing is static and neither are decisions. Seen this happen before with other companies. BOD make mistakes also and then decisions are not made in a fixed environment. here I would say BOD did what was appropriate when they did it and now they need to do it in the opposite direction and retain funds for harder times.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    no fracking has made the US a major producer, this year alone we reduced our needs of foreign oil by 6% and with govt help and the use of more NG we could easily cut it another 6% The glut will be with us for a while but these low prices will eventually settle out a little higher and we will stabilize for a long period of time. but there will be angst that will give us runups in oil prices. I personally do not see $85 oil in the next 2 yrs but most likely $75 to 80. but production will be reduced as Capex is cut, I think I read COP cut thier Capex by 20 million already. This will happen throughout the industry reducing yrs 2016 out as already drilled not production wells come on line throughout 2015

  • Reply to

    strength

    by rlbeard6734 Dec 4, 2014 12:49 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    boy was this strong today in a terrible market, this rally is very real into FDA determination, If we are given a favorable determination I would not be surprised to see a $20 pop. I am so glad I loaded up on this one (7k shares) last month. I think it is going to make me a sizable amount of money by mid January when I will sell a loser I have and offset most of the gain on this one and also have long term gains on my GILD holdings from $75.

  • throwing up in the latryn as their dividend is cut as predicted, crying in the bath stall as their price has gone from 11.50 to $8.26, give me some more negative votes but you should be slapping yourself for not listening to reason as your capital has disappeared in one of the biggest bull markets ever. The lost opportunity would bother me more than the capital loss. NOW THAT SAID, management did some very smart things today as they have 5% exposure to the oil industry and a lot of their loans will become non accruing along with the fact that since they arent issuing more shares or new debt they will not be making Loan origination fees to support distribution. These are actions of good business men and they arent waiting for the sun to set on making good decisions. Today was probably a buying opportunity as many have lost faith and are selling out just when they should have waited to buy. AND WHO is a buyer your old friend SLICK, more of you should listen to him as he is one of the few smart people on this board. NO I AM NOT slick. You may not like his bravado but he does seem to be a brilliant trader. and for those of you that believe they are fake what difference does that make, he makes the calls and they are correct. Why dont you post your buys and sells even if they are fake and we can see if you can do as well. And for all of you that have held on forever, you will never learn. CD holders always lose buying power the longer they =hold the more they are assured of losing. If there werent so many great buying opportunities in the oil industry coming up I would have bought here today also but there are easy doubles in the next 3 yrs in the oil EPs here today and that will be my concentration specifically BBEP

  • Reply to

    my 5000 shares at $11

    by b0n312 Dec 8, 2014 4:58 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:44 PM Flag

    This happens in stocks all the time, someone tells you why you shouldnt buy and you bash them then the stock goes down further after all your pumping and you lose confidence and sell as the guy you bash buys and makes all the money you lost. History repeats way too often and they always get out near the bottom as emotions make them buy high and sell low.

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    boy, when the blood is in the water they show up from everywhere, it must be getting close to the time to buy for a trade, I think slick did it at the right time again. lol The only negative persons I would listen to on this board would be slick and myself and no I am not slickpot

  • Reply to

    PURCHASE.............

    by slicktop4 Dec 8, 2014 10:58 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:39 PM Flag

    the reason there are so many dumb blonds is that most of them are dyed brunettes

  • Reply to

    If BBEP were acquired

    by slawsonjames Dec 8, 2014 7:17 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    a very cash heavy smart person, you buy when blood is in the street not when things are priced high as QRE.

  • Reply to

    who bounces back first?

    by suuumguy Dec 8, 2014 12:45 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    suuumguy. I would sayy that it is a very close point to buying BBEP for a double over the next 3 yrs or less. Oil will rebound from these lows The following will happen to bring that to fruition
    1) capex will be cut drastically at all oil companies (already seeing this but it is only a start as drilled oil will still be coming on line for the next 6 months at least)
    2) unrest will start in many oil producing countries whose govts depend on oil revenue to support their huge welfare systems that keep over 1/2 of the population from revolting (arab spring was about low stipends and high food prices not freedom)
    3) This is a cycle that has been seen many times in oil and it will cycle again, a revolution here or there and production is reduced considerably for a period of time and oil partially recovers
    4) low oil prices will get the economies of industrialized countries rolling again when Obama couldnt and this will drive up demand
    5) we may not be at the low but we are very close to it and the price of BBEP will stablilize and then begin its slow rally back to the 20 area in the next 3 yrs. that is a 27% annualized return with no distribution so I say cut the distribution to zero now, get the books in better shape and lets sit this out until distributions can be resumed.
    I got out at 20.5 three years ago and have been waiting for this to happen and this opportunity, now I just have to decide what biotech I will sell and when so I dont lose long term capital gains.

  • Reply to

    If BBEP were acquired

    by slawsonjames Dec 8, 2014 7:17 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    every merger is different and whether you get cash or stock it should make no difference but BBEP is not for sale

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    that is public relations for you, I can tell you the last time this happened the stock went to close to $6 and based there for a month and the distribution was cut to zero. Personally that would be a buy indication, I dont think it will go that low as it is a larger and better company today but the problem is cash flow and income and the distribution needs to be cut regyardless of what IR told you and the sooner the better but i do believe next months distribution and possibly the next one are safe. If oil prices stay down during that time though I would expect the distribution to suffer by 3 months but hopefully 2 months. As soon as the price stablizes I will be a large buyer hopefully sometime after the first of year. This will also be faced with selling for year end Once they announce the distribution cut the price will rise if like last time as that will show that management plans on making this company survive. If I can get out of some long term calls on GILD I will buy 20 to 30k shares at this price level., would have bought today had the funds been available. From those of you that remember me you know I have been a bear for the last 2 to 3 years and waitihsng for this opportunity so this is an about face for me and I dont have an agenda like karenlupa to scare anyone into helping a position, I post what I believe are facts. I dont see this going lower than $7.50 but I dont care if I miss the bottom This price will double in next 3 yrs. and that will make it a 27% annualized return with no distribution but last time they only cut the distribution for 15 months.

  • Reply to

    LOC and debt covenents

    by longrange101 Dec 8, 2014 7:38 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    It is my hope that they cut the distribution to zero as soon as possible to ward off future problems and should those problems not come to fruition then reinstate part of it. But I feel they need to take some drastic action rapidly before next distribution goes ex but I doubt that they will

  • Reply to

    It rallied back a little at closing but

    by lee_bennett1960 Dec 8, 2014 4:19 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    the repercussions at these levels will be severe as they can not cover stipends to the public welfare system and they doubled them to avoid the ARAB SPRING which was a mideast revolt over food prices that quadrupled and not freedoms as Obama would tell you but then his devaluing the dollar 40% is what caused the food inyflation and unrest. Oil at these levels will cause many govts to fail and be overthrown or take military action. Once this starts the oil prices will rebound and they will cut production. to support prices. While I dont believe the bottom is in I do believe it is very close and I am trying hard to find the funds to buy here. unfortunalely I also need funds for 4 houses I am building and 200 head of steers I am buying and long term gains on several stocks are only 4 weeks away. Too many irons in fire right now or I would have bought today.

  • Reply to

    It rallied back a little at closing but

    by lee_bennett1960 Dec 8, 2014 4:19 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 5:40 PM Flag

    I agree and I expect management will make that decision soon if prices dont rally back rapidly but I also believe that we are getting very near the bottom and you know from my other posts this is a reversal for me. I am getting ready to reallocate funds amongst stocks and buy back here with at least 20k to 30k shares believing that I can get a double in 3 yrs. and this comes from a guy that has been out of this stock for 3yrs and got in last time at 8 and rode it to 20.50 and got out and gave reasons for doing so and has been bashed for several years for the posts here SO THIS IS a major shift for me but I can see the blood starting down the street and I may not get the bottom but 3 yrs from now I will be happy.

  • Reply to

    It rallied back a little at closing but

    by lee_bennett1960 Dec 8, 2014 4:19 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 8, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    it is extremely hard to look at an earnings report and make that statement due to many earnings misunderstanding, you need to look at cash flow I have seen where earnings were negative and they didnt borrow. IT is not doubtful they will cut dividends but very doublful they go to $5 they didnt even do that when they cut it entirely.

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