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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rlbeard6734 161 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jul 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by e7navy1999 6 hours ago
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 6 hours ago Flag

    and this is why you own COP vs CVX for the question that gets asked so often.

  • Reply to

    Question for GILD Longs.

    by stickmiami 20 hours ago
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 19 hours ago Flag

    ubnt, it has disr
    uptive technology, run by Pera, who is a disciple of Steve Jobs, he takes no salary, no bonuses but does own 60 plus % of the company. Earnings are growing decently

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 28, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    not much this year as yields were high on corn, beans were moderate but not low enough to get ins so I guess you could say ins was a cost factor. but for the previous 3 yrs it kept us alive. My personal opinion is that we would have made more money with a regular crop. This will hurt for awhile even if a drought comes next yr. All of the elevators are full and corn is still in the field, we are bagging some of ours and storing where possible for next years prices beans have no where to go except to the local bean/diesel plant that ADM has here. We will be bagging beans also They cant get any rail cars to get the corn out of here.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 28, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    I would agree with all the no votes beloyw, add to it that there is no benefit to stockholders to sell below NAV, If they cant make enough money with the stock they have already sold to get the stock price up then why sell and lower value more. They need to get stock price up to get stockholders to want to give them more.

  • Reply to

    OUT @ $34.81 - will buy back lower

    by poon_tang_licker Oct 27, 2014 4:02 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 27, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    by the way I dont hug trees, very conservative, cut some down plant some never hug

  • Reply to

    OUT @ $34.81 - will buy back lower

    by poon_tang_licker Oct 27, 2014 4:02 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 27, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    you have a lot of posts and cant keep up with all of them missed the sell at 35.62 or the buy for the sell at 34.81 but if you are trading that rapidly your buys and sells are really useless for anyone that is investing and only make sense to you. I use to trade GS 4 times a day with 2k to 5k shares a trade but the ins and outs where only of value to me not to anyone wanting to take a position.

  • Reply to

    Short Interest up 1M to over 20M

    by geringerart Oct 27, 2014 12:27 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 27, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    sorry about this question but the june earnings shows that with all convertible exer cised that we have 98 million shares where do you get the 117.million. AS of the june report we had rounded 73 million shares and convertible would add another 25 million

  • Reply to

    Silly Question on Options

    by stickmiami Oct 27, 2014 2:28 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 27, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    mjh, my understanding from my broker and acct is that if you exercise your calls you 4 and delay any taxes until you sell the stock and your cost basis is the cost of your calls plus the exercise price plus commissions. Your date of ownership is the date you bought the calls on the stock also so if you bought the calls on 3/15/14 and converted them today your stock purchase date would be 3/15/14 If you bought 1 jan 16 40 call at $38 with a commision of 10 cents and exercised it and the commission for the option and stock was 20 cents your cost basis in the stock would be $38+ $40+10 cents +20cents for a total cost of 78.30 I hope the examples help

  • Reply to

    OUT @ $34.81 - will buy back lower

    by poon_tang_licker Oct 27, 2014 4:02 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 27, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    so you are a trader and took a 25 cent per share loss according to back in at 35.06

  • Reply to

    Silly Question on Options

    by stickmiami Oct 27, 2014 2:28 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 27, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    thunder is correct, If you plan on holding the stock then call the calls and your holding time begins on the day you bought the calls not the day you converted and your cost basis is figured on the cost of your calls plus your exercise price and commissions and you delay taxes on the gain on the calls. I have some $40 calls that I plan on exercising in January.

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    does any of you that have been in this stock for longer than a year remember when they didnt exceed earnings and how long ago that was?? I think we beat handily again and shoujld have good expectations with the addition of the oncology drug last quarter and Havoni this quarter for Q4 I am looking for $125 by end of Jan 2015 barring a market meltdown maybe even in december with a Santa Claus rally

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    that really depends on many factors, it is true that we have a glut of grains on hand at the moment but that glut in the past has always opened up demand. The other factor that is unlikely to be repeated is that we had a record crop on low rain levels that came at just the exact right moments on a regular basis. In our area we saw record corps that beat previous yields by 25% on rain levels that were 17 inches under normal. Another dry year without being timed perfectly could give us yields in the opposite direction and eat into that inventory rapidly. HIstory has shown that land prices only go down during depressions so are you predicting a depression or just a bump. farmers will switch out of corn to other crops this year bringing fertilizer pricesy down, so I would avoid fertilizer styocks this year. Corn prices are already higher for future crop years. While I do not see a huge rebound in prices except in the case of a drought, I do not see this years lows repeaC High rent levels will moderate, maybe some marginal ground will return to livestock where it should have been and never tilled. I know I am putting 140 acres of good farm ground back in grass for livestock expansion As far as DE I dont see a big move in any direction as sales will moderate with less farm income and farmers tend to buy when flush in cash and under $3 corn doesnt make anyone flush. They will buy only as absolutley necessary ybut that is already in the stock. but really hard to see it go below 80

  • Reply to

    Not Panicking is Wrong

    by yuzhonglu68 Oct 25, 2014 11:35 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 9:24 PM Flag

    and what was that sign of trouble that you speak?? was it panic selling for no reason. That is not a sign of trouble but a sign of opportunity. You have it mixed up

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 9:20 PM Flag

    looking at a 5 yr chart it is back in the channel that it has violated only twice in the last five years, it is very good, if you werent in you should have taken advantage of the selloff this month it wont likely happen again for a long time as in years and at a much higher price even then.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    I just looked at WYY, you are delusional, it has gone from 25 cents to 1.55 in the last 12 months, it doesnt look like you have a clue. Plus GILD is not a penny stock. It is one of the largest companies around and the likelihood of even a person with Icahn's money taking it down is ridiculous. You had better check into that mental ward or go back on your meds.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 9:10 PM Flag

    this is stan with a new name, since he lost all credibility at the other puts he bought, this guy is as fake as can be. What is a huge short to him, 10 shares or 100000 shares? The word huge has different meanings to every individual and is not defining, Lying on message boards by some is their only fun and games. To pick the best stock on the exchange to short already shows the stupidity of the poster. I would put him on ignore but I have so many that my board is beginning to look like an ignore posting board.

  • Reply to

    Not Panicking is Wrong

    by yuzhonglu68 Oct 25, 2014 11:35 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    years ago I got into AAPL at 80 presplit and heard this same philosophy as original poster for years and sit and held and watched aapl go to 700 plus and got out after things slowed and it went back to 650 area and then got into a different stock. This is still in the early stages unlike aapl when I got out which had topped and was relfected in its earnings growth and lack of new products which is why I exited a great company not because it wouldnt grow but it no longer was meeting my expectations and fundamentals had changed. I will be in this for a minimum of another year to 150 and maybe longer as long as things continue in the mode they are. This is fundamentally better than when I got in at 74. FPEof 12.5 ridiculously low. Will be hard to not make money a year from now.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    if he had held through that and still had it at 80 he would not have paniced again and sold in the 90s traders are not winners 98% of the time over a long term basis. I bought in the 70s and while the sell off hurt with the number of shares I own it did not really concern me as I was up enough that it didnt really affect me and I still believed in the story here that got me into this stock Gosh it has a forward PE of 12.5 ridiculously low at todays price and at the price he got out it was near a FPE of 10.5

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    my original thesis on getting into this is that by march 2015 it would be at 125, things have improved over my original expectations and now I am looking to reach 150 by dec 2015 where I will reevaluate along that time frame also and see if I am still staying. This is a great company with great products with great earnings that are exceeding all expectations and until that changes sit back and enjoy the ride and forget the bumps. trying to figure out when it is going up and when it is going down is a fools game and lucky at best Those that brag at it are like the gamblers at the casinos that talk of their winnings but year after year lose money You cant beat the house over the period of time. It just doesnt happen on a regular predictable basis except for a few 1%ers and dont plan on being one.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Oct 26, 2014 8:48 PM Flag

    I would add these comments to the above threads
    1) fishart" fine to add on dips and great move as long as fundamentals have not changed negatively
    2) rental property is not for everyone as finland astutely acknowledges, you have to be disciplined, I always have said if you cant evict your mother dont own rental property, the unsaid thing there is that if you are charging your mother rent (which I would not) you have to be able to evict her. You must be tough all renters are like children and have to be held accountable. If you cant do this quickly and non emotional you should not own rental
    3)what you have learned about rental you should apply to stocks or not own stocks either.
    you have to learn when to sell and when to buy, if you cant remember you need to write down the fundamental reasons that you get into a stock, you need to not overextend (and options are a #$%$ game and short term stress barometer and not an investment but a gamble) when the stock starts selling off you need to reexamine why you got in and if anything has changed if not then you need to stay put or add if funds available. You have to be disciplined and not emotional or you will miss out. If you must gamble put 10% of your funds in a separate account to gamble with and when you lose it never do it again and if you do well take some out each year until you have your 10% back and keep having fun but never add to that addictive habit, if you lose it you need to give it up forever.

COP
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