I do agree he is good but so is depo and as I stated even before the depo letter he hadnt offered them any more stock just more dollars, that was the genius of his offer imo as he got 6 months of stock appreciation before he closed but DEPO saw through that and they want a stock offer and I can see share per share as being realistic.I also see their last refusal as a bartering letter without explicitly saying it out loud. If TW relinquishes and offers them the correct amount of stock then this will not go to court but be a done deal. How the market reacts could be a different thing for a while until the picture becomes more clear but you and I and TW are sure it will be done and I believe the market is also but not at the price I am talking but lower and that is why I have a small holding of depo today selling calls against it to lower my cost basis. But I can tell you that if this goes past aug it will most likely end in court and as a court date is set the real behind the scenes negotiations begin.because DEPO doesnt want to lose in court as then all of their bargaining power is gone.
several years ago I went to china on a mission trip and I would stay up to trade for several hrs, ddid real well on a position i was in but it was a killer time wise.so i understand
geri, i bought 1k shares of depo today for a short term trade at 31.04 and sold aug %32 calls at .85 I do not see the deal falling through in that time frame as it will take months for this to come to an ending. so what I see is DEPO holding her unless HZNP ups the offer so I will make 3% if flat and 6% if it rizes. in 2 weeks and do it again next month and possibly october but walk after that It will make me some lunch money. today it made me $300 if I had exited at the close. I did some day trading on OSIR and made another $700 so it was a decent day since i only had 50k on the line for the trades. AS far as the $7 loss you dont believe that and neither do I as that would require tw to walk away in the next 3 weeks. It is very unlikely and on 8/21 more than likely i will make $1800 on
that trade of 30k.
yes i read the entire cc transcript and I do not see anything about valuation of the stock at 36 so I would be interested in where you might have come up with this.
buy depo and sell Aug $32 calls Logic is that this deal doesnt go away but doesnt get done one way or other until a vote in December so you will be able to clip a coupon of 3% per month for several months selling the nearbys and should the stock go up and you deliver then you make 6% for that month, rinse and do it again. downside is if HZNP announces it is walking away, not likely at this point.IMO
thanks minnie, i havent been here that long so I didnt know, it just seemed unusual for the time I have been here and for a stock that trades 150k shares a day
i read your comment and decided that that was what I also believe so i bought some depo and sold slightly out of the money calls for aug and when they expire i will sell sept and clip those 3% per month coupons until this deal closes in december
just bought some DEPO AND SOLD AUG $32 calls because this will go on for months and I will clip option premiums and then get out.and make a few dollars it will be like a high yield money market 3% per month
IMO that wont happen and is childish, they are on a trek that will eventually end in Ca court to get a vote at the $33 level and it will be with us for the rest of the year. look at it as a Xmas present
actually except for the purchase of the opium mzfkdg you znc I are on the same page when I look at ther current financial picture of DEPO I feel we could offer one share for one share and still be accretive in under a year aothough I think it is a done deal at $33 and it will just take the time to do the vote through court intervention and that will take 3 to 4 months once they begin ocurt proceedings to force the issue. i can stand the short term pain
I think it wouldnt be dilutive but I fear the purchase of opiod drugs because of the factors that both Mike and I have listed previously If you look at their earnings and potentiial I do not believe it would not be accrtive even at 1 share for 1 share.but at that point nit worth it imo
fireball you and i are on same page with those thoughts but my feeling is that the depo deal will be pushed to a vote of stock holders at the price of 33 and that the reason depo pulled back is that the risk premium on merger needs to be higherg and it hasnt fell more bedause people feel it will be done but will take longer