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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rlbeard6734 693 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 51 minutes ago Member since: Jul 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    70 percent of float are not selling

    by paullemmon758 Jul 25, 2015 12:20 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 26, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    here is the problem with that logic, all institutional shares are available to be shorted and for every short you have a buyer that can sell or trade so very little stock is not really in the float.

  • Reply to

    Some ramblings...

    by ozark580 Jul 24, 2015 3:18 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 24, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    one more rarmbling I think stryrker eventually buys osiris.

  • Reply to

    Arthrex numbers

    by ozark580 Jul 23, 2015 2:45 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    when you are talking 1900 salesmen where do you get that number I am showing only 211 total employees for osir

  • Reply to

    Feb $30 Calls

    by geringerart Jul 22, 2015 7:43 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    20 contracts at 10.77 102 contracts at 10,90 and 10 contracts at 10.19 today no other trades132 contracts total so I am not seeing any trades of 10.80 assuming his friend got the 10.77 and he got the $10.90

  • Reply to

    Forbes article concentrates on 4K....

    by miamianne67 Jul 23, 2015 11:53 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    i added some more opk today

  • Reply to

    Feb $30 Calls

    by geringerart Jul 22, 2015 7:43 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    410.80 or $10.90 not seeing any trades at 10.80

  • Reply to

    stryker reports tomorrow

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 12:43 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    i guess the real question is do they break revs down enough to see how Bio4 did

  • gives higher chandce tht we dont raise our bid again if there is a change it wii be from dollars to stock .85

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 8:10 AM Flag

    that is my prediction gl to all longs

  • Reply to

    Feb $30 Calls

    by geringerart Jul 22, 2015 7:43 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 8:06 AM Flag

    oh I can not fault what you are doing was just offering another alternative. I obviously feel 35 is safe on the bull call spreads. You have done exceeding well on this stock and obviously since it is my largest holding I think we will continue to do well. It is just my strategy doesnt require it to go up. TO make as much money in your strategy it needs to go to $46. It
    can do that by feb but I only need it to stay even or not go down $3

  • Reply to

    Feb $30 Calls

    by geringerart Jul 22, 2015 7:43 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 1:15 AM Flag

    I think you are taking more risk than before you are rolling to a much higher in the money option with a much shorter time frame after stating numerous times the wisdom in being ditm and long term. If you are looking for big returns I would suggest bull call spreads. buying the nov 30 and selling the nov 35 will net you a 40% return more easily and in a shorter period under the scenario you speak. you could do 7 of those for every contract of jan 2017 you sell and I would sell less so that they become long term capital gains. you also make this 40% without the stock going up it just doesnt need to go down much. If you look at the returns of bull call spreads you will definitely see the profit potential there and sell a lot less of those jan 2017 $15 calls then when you reach nov you can do it all over again for march and by the time your feb 30 calls are expiring you will have made 60% or more with less risk and no need for the stock to go up but then you have to give away a little upside potential for that less risk. risk tolerance is key in this market.

  • Reply to

    Somebody wants this to stay down...

    by jrdelane Jul 20, 2015 5:00 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 12:58 AM Flag

    as far as products I agree with you but if he is buying a company, i would bet the next one will be bigger than the last as he steps it up. With stock he is not going into debt except for what the acquiring company has. He plans on growing this a lot larger to get that 4Xbonus and I dont think he can do it all by organic growth so there will be a lot of mergers and larger and I would too if I were he as far as ideas the biopharma I am in are either too small or too large for him...run a screener for 2 to 5 Billion biopharma and study them for what they offer or he buys a small part from a larger biopharma that isnt handling it correctly as before.

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 12:43 AM Flag

    will there be any indication of sales of our products for guidance to help us.??

  • Reply to

    A CLOSE above $45 would be very bullish,

    by cl124cl Jul 22, 2015 3:10 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 23, 2015 12:19 AM Flag

    in 4 weeks they are one

  • Reply to

    anyone with a feel

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 21, 2015 5:48 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 22, 2015 11:15 PM Flag

    those numbers are very good, you always have a larger growth early tapering off percentagewise but it looks to me as the growth is stabilizing as the 12 and 9 compared to numbers of patients in growth are very close.

  • Reply to

    same deal. same answer.

    by jh050562 Jul 21, 2015 8:25 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 22, 2015 10:46 PM Flag

    contrary to what some have said on this message, I now think that the BOD of DEPO due to large mutual fund owners i slooking seriously at this last offer and the price of the stock reflects that, I believe TW has talked to them and his last offer was due to thier consensus and now the pressure they are exerting on the BOD of DEPO. The only change I would think from their statements is that they would change this offer to .85 shares of HZNP instead of $33 which is what it is at at todays offer in stock and the price TW has offered. If I were them I would want to participate in any price growth over the next 4 to 6 months of closing. Contrary to what I have said earlier I do believe todays action tells us the deal will be done but if it is not for a fixed share of stock I would as a DEPO stockholder sell and buy HZNP right away.otherwise you will end up with less stock in 4 months.

  • Reply to

    Somebody wants this to stay down...

    by jrdelane Jul 20, 2015 5:00 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 22, 2015 10:32 PM Flag

    HZNP is my largest holding and I feel that this will eventually work out but it has jaundiced me towards opiod drugs. I think hZNP is ratcheting up its buy targets so when or if it gets DEPO I would think the next target will be a larger company than DEPO or an orphan drug on the cheap as always. They want the company to be a large pharma and the tax structure gives them an edge of all purchases vs US competitors. They can only do mergers that are of a certain size but growing size to avoid inversion tax problems from my understanding so I see the next one in the 4 to 5 billion area if they get depo and todays action on stock price along with the fact that the Depo bod has not turned it down yet that iit is getting ser4ious thought as I am sure the mutual fund large share holders are putting lots of pressure on Ithem. Previously I did not thnk it would happen but now I do believe it wil at or very near to thier last offer...I think it is an ingenious offer to offer X amount of dollars of your stock especially when closing will be 4 to 6 months off and as your stock price rises during that time frame you are giving less stock for the purchase. I would never go for that I would sell my depo and buy HZNP as soon as the deal is secure. I no longer beieve HZNP will look at ptx but thqt doesnt mean someone else wont.

  • Reply to

    Doubled down this week...

    by jrdelane Jul 22, 2015 2:34 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 22, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    I am currently adding some OSIR to my portfolio and I already have more here than I am comfortable with but I do wish I could averaga down by doubling up. I wan to thank you for sharing OSIR with me.

  • Reply to

    anyone with a feel

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 21, 2015 5:48 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 22, 2015 10:17 PM Flag

    minnie, one of the things I do before investing in a small cap stock is to read the message boards to get a feel for the investors and thier feelings on a stock and I would have to say I agree with you. That is the good news, the bad is that when this stock truly grows and takes off you will be able to tell by the idiots and bashers that show up on this board. My last large investment was in HZNP 16 months ago and it was similar and it has risen 400%and now has plenty of shills I have decided that is what it takes to know your stock has made it. lol

  • Reply to

    Feb $30 Calls

    by geringerart Jul 22, 2015 7:43 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 22, 2015 9:56 PM Flag

    I like it but I have a question for you. Do you really believe that the preannouncement on revenue for this quarter is reflected in the market as I feel that will equate to at least 35 cents in earnings which is one heck of a beat and the stock is barely a $1.50 up from whate it was pre announcement. EIther it is not up becasue of the DEPO offer which I know you refute or it is not taking those earnings into account and they are great blowaway even the highest analyst Interested in your commentary seriously

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