i usually see this when the MM knows that there is good news coming and he takes the bids in between to fill his book and occassionally sells to reduce when a full price offer comes in. to me this is bullish
I used to do carpentry for my dad when I was in high school all the way through graduate school. I loved it. I have been adding
play with the numbers, hainsworth says market potential for drug is 18 billiion annually which is 52000 per treatment on the 350,000 people that need this drug in the USA. if they capture only 1/3 you are looking at 6 billion with expenses less than 50% leaving 3 billion in earnings when this is in full swing that is even on the diluted share count of 30 million $100 per share in earnings put a 10 pE on it and you get $1000 per share but I believe PFE will buy it and dont forget GILD paid 12 billion for sovaldi so that figure wasnt pulled out of the sky maybe you need to quit smoking and look at the potential here and that is why you have people paying exorbitant amounts for calls for May.Those estimates are not mine on the sales potential just the rest are figures using very conservative WAGS
NO you will be paying 3X as much as now.the secondary is for a facility to produce the drug and the staffing and salesforce by the time it is approved you will be looking at a much higher price and it will become obvious for the secondary is for but read the feb 10th presentation and you will be sure.
I agree with you that the option premiums here are astronomical and give a person familiar with options many potentials to reduce risk and make a lot of money on other peoples speculation. This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in 40 years of trading. I am so glad another poster on another board brought this to my attention 2 weeks ago. I plan on this stock making me 500k in 5 weeks or less.
you need to listeh to the feb 10th presentation on their website then you will know what the secondary is for if you have the brain to listen and put 2 plus 2 together then you wont have any concerns, they have all the dominos lined up for the phase 2 trials to finish, then this explodes and you see a short squeeze of monumental proportions and calls being exercised left and right This will be delayed for an hour or more on the opening.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
did you hear the part on the option for the production facility in the feb 10 presentation on their website. they have everything lined up to go when this phase comes out, the option on the facility, the SPO for the funds to pay for the build out and the facility and payroll for staff and sales force. They have all their i s dotted and they are ready to go. I agree and feel this once production and sales get going could easily go to over 500 per share. I would not vote for an offer from PFE for anything less. personally I feel that in 3 yrs this will be over $1000 per share non split basis.
that is an annual number that the analyst hainsworth came out with and not mine. I have done my homework and PFE owns 7.5% novartis doesnt have enough to report which means less than 5%.and like you say this is an ongoing treatment and not a $1000 pill so 52000 per patient is not as high as sovaldi which is the number you come up with at 350000 pts at 18Billion
the fact the two actually i think BMY owns some also have their foot in door doesnt mean that GILD couldnt come in and buy it they have the money n The response was to the question of "what should Gild buy" not that they will or could by I believe they could outbid PFE which just bought hospira?? and it would be my choice as it would as you say be a treatment and not a cure so not a peel off of patients and that $18 is US alonea by hainsworth estimates. this analysis can be found under headlines under CLDN. I would not wait much more on CLDN purchase for a few pennies you could lose out big. I never try to get bottom just 80% of the middle. I have 42k shares with $17.50 calls of may sold against them and another 6k shares with no calls sold (unhindered you could say) If it closes over $17.50 in may 15 it will more than pay for the 6000 shares I own with no calls. 3X over. those I will hold til it sells or goes above 500 to 1000
I am up 38% on the stock I hold but I had some $40 calls that expired in 1/2015 that more than doulbed on me from what I paid for them and i have sold over half of my holdings up $520k to date on all trades.
the same about the secondary, It is for the manufacturing facility that they have an option on that they will need to exercise in the next month if approval of phase 2 is good.gut people keep bringing it up when it is great news. not bad.
pfizer already owns a little over 7% of the stock and is the #1 major holder of CLDN stock more than any mutual fund or institutional buyer. this is easily seen by looking at major holders.