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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rlbeard6734 901 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 59 minutes ago Member since: Jul 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    last warning

    by retailbaloon May 20, 2014 1:21 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 21, 2014 9:11 AM Flag

    this is selling 27 times future revenue and that is way too high, take a successful earning company like GILD which is selling at about 7 times future earnings and you can see that this has no where to go but down once the hysteria and hype wears off. even if revenues greatly expand with all the competition the pirce can not.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 21, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    with $1000 per pill I doubt there will be much inventory fluctuation, more hand to mouth distribution, Scripts do equal sales, what equals even more sales is those not reported and they are enormous here, vet, medicaid, prison, overseas. I look for earnings to have as big of beat this quarter as last.

  • Reply to

    200k traded at 16:00 and 125k after hours

    by stokwatcher54657 Jun 20, 2014 5:07 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 9:28 PM Flag

    I noticed those, someone has some serious interest, hopefully it leads to a little more activity monday, it was a little disappointing today was hoping for a 10 cent up move. Had some problems on a trade I put on still working with broker so I couldnt add anymore today on the slight dip.

  • Reply to

    Above 60% Shorting on MNK again...

    by caffeinsomniac Jun 20, 2014 9:02 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    I really dont believe all of it is arb, a bunch of arb moved to options yesterday on a $2.5 million option trade. I moved 500k from stock arb and did some option arb today. The option premiums expand the profit margin over stock. I never have really understood outright shorting, you get to pay interest on the loan of the stock however small or large that may be, any dividends that may come due and have to fight a market that is bent on going up. Seems like a real uphill battle with out knowing some inside information. Heck I buy a stock that beats earnings by 50% over estimates and it goes down, so obvious I dont know much(GILD). But today was a real decent day. arb doesnt short both so any short on QCOR would nt fit into arb long Qcor short Mnk that is the play to lock profits and worry less, but no home runs just steady and easy as long as she closes.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    it was explained to you in detail, I cant make you understand what you fail to be able to do. But I do know this I closed out the positions at eoption today on 5200 shares
    qcor and 46 mnk calls and after all previous losses netted a profit of $37700.00 and I still have 3920 more shares and 35 more mnk calls in another acct and as of today they are $33800 so had I closed them at the close today my total postition would be up 71500. The way I make money on rolling up is that the 65 calls went up more in value than the 70 which went up more in value than the 75 which went up more in value than the 80 had I held them and they allowed me to keep more of the price in Qcor So I made a little more than what I anticipated but closed to do the deal I outlined here and MOnday I will close the other stock account positon and book that 33800 or whereever it is and do some more of the option 3 leg strategy outlined usling the profit I made to fund most of it and reduce what little risk I had additionally. I spelled out the exact prices today so that you could go check to see that they were done. At least my tdameritrade acct would show the option sales prices and how many as they were done for all three legs Verification is key to you though you rarely admit when you do it. Had you done your idea you could not have cashed out anywhere near the profit I did today total net and might still be underwater.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    I would rather like to know how the IRS lost all their computers with the leaders emails on them and then destroyed all the evidence so no one could look at it. Nixon couldnt do it why can Obama.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    the positive is you would need less buying power. the idea on selling the QCor put at 65 is that it gets you $2plus and for QCOR to go that low the deal would have to fall through basically or MNK go to 39.02 at merger. at which point the world just exploded and we are all dead lol.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    the mechanics would not I like the spreads but in my deal I am completely arbitraged the QCOR I will be buying on the calls I am selling on the mnk calls I have sold and you need to do 10 QCOR to every 9 MNK and that will leave you 3 shares short MNK to cover. Your deal is as follows using midpoints on bid/ask at close
    put spread mnk credit 1.00 per share
    call spread mnk credit 6.60 per share
    call qcor cost 21.05
    what most likely happens is will sell your MNK and you will own your Qcor so your basis in Qcor would be 75 +21.05-(6.6X.9)-(100X.9) or 89.21 with 14210 for every 10 Qcor and 9 MNK you do. this means to make 100% you would need Qcor to close at 103.42 or mnk to close at 81.85 I only need mnk to close at 75 to max and have a lower cost basis expended and I didnt use commissions on your deal You will break even as long as Qcor is 89.21 or mnk 77.16 while I make break even at 62.50 on MNK or Qcor at 86.06 I hope I adequately analyzed that for you. It is also hard to do spreads at midpoints it is usually less favorable. so that would make it less attractive also. The big boy that did the 2.5 M deal on this yesterday has me convinced and he probably has computers to do the figures rather than my back of the envelope.

  • Reply to

    The reason nobody is selling...

    by bertrand_sternwood Jun 19, 2014 12:08 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    write it off as a charitable donation it may save you a year of life and I know it will make the rest of us a lot of money. I remember how it ran up the last time you sold. I could sell 1/3 at those prices and have my balance cost basis $3.60 PLEASEEEEEEEE help us out

  • Reply to

    The reason nobody is selling...

    by bertrand_sternwood Jun 19, 2014 12:08 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    now he is down to $4, geez I wonder how many shares he has maybe I will buy them so he can leave, lol, If he had stuck to 15 I would probably be gone at 13 so he was going to outlast me at least on most of my stock. I gave you a thumbs up but dont do the kervorkian on us, just put him on ignore if it bothers you too much, i like to pull his string occassionally esp with politics, he has to love the way the IRS has lost all their papers on this Obama fiasco of using the IRS against conservatives. This is so much worse than Watergate that I would love to have Nixon back.

  • Reply to

    Already have a 50% return (in 4 weeks)

    by caffeinsomniac Jun 19, 2014 1:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    on my eoption acct got out of my qcor/mnk arbitrage made net 40k after previous losses on rolling up mnk short calls. did a more convoluted option strategy, bought QCOR oct 75 calls sold oct 65 puts and sold oct 75 MNK calls if you want to check did the 75 calls on QCOR at
    21.88 (20) 22.08 (50) 21.94 (30) did the 65 puts at 3.18 (20) 2.98 (50) and 3.40 (30) did these as spreads at 18.70 (20) 19.10 (50) and 18.90 (30) sold all the mnk oct 75 calls at 8.80 (90) did this early this morning.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    I would have never have thought of this trade had you not brought the option activity to my attention, I do believe it is a sweet deal also. it does take some purchasing power and why I sold 5200 Qcor shares today and bought back my MNK 80 calls to do this. but it has less money out of my account then the previous trade and stands to make a lot more money. just have to keep MNK above 75 break even will be around 62.50 mnk. so the risk is not as high as it might seem except for the deal not closing and I think that is almost nil. but some feel differently.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I wish you would be right but I am not expecting anything except a few new buyers that werent aware of company and its prospects, This stock except on rare occassions moves very little each day, low volatility I have seen several days the last month that the range was less than 4 or 5 cents most of the day.some as low as 3 cents.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    correction the net cost of the option I put on today was 110900 with a max profit of $ 112000. or around a 100% return if MNK closes above 75 at merger. They have my account major messed up right now with some wrong trades that wont be corrected til monday morning.

  • Reply to

    The reason nobody is selling...

    by bertrand_sternwood Jun 19, 2014 12:08 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    he has stated he has an offer to sell in at $15. wish he would get it lol but then i would be gone and wouldnt care.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    in most presentations by most companies they do not put out any new news, so it is only an event for the new people it may attract to the stock that didnt previously follow it. I have never seen a merger/partner announced that wasnt previously known, new trials or anything that is new.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 20, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    I did 100 contracts of OCT Qcor 75 calls long 100 contracts of Qcor 65 puts short and 90 contracts on MNK 75 calls short today at a net cost of $128,400.00 to make a profit of $94500 if MNK closes at our above 75 and took off 5200 shares of QCOR long and 46 contracts of MNK 80calls short for a profit of $ 65,000 that I had placed earlier. Thanks for this idea delbayu.

  • Reply to

    Already have a 50% return (in 4 weeks)

    by caffeinsomniac Jun 19, 2014 1:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 19, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    or to own stock at a cheaper price.

  • Reply to

    Option Activity Today

    by delbayu_dot_com Jun 19, 2014 3:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 19, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    i did a little more checking when I answered the question it seems that someone also did 1977 mnk calls aug 14 at 75 exercise. This got me to thinking about an arbitrage situation which I will do tomorrow. I think that not all of those were done by one individual but most and that what they did was in multiples of below
    bought 10 Qcor aug 14 75 calls 19.10
    sold 10 Qcor aug 14 60 puts 1.35
    sold 9 MNK aug 14 75 calls 6.00 net cost 12.35 to make $9.925 per share
    this way when the deal goes down which this person feels will happen by aug 14 expiration he will be buying QCOR at 75 and delivering it to cover his MNK he feels will be above 75 that he has sold and the put income will expire worthless. The risk is that MNK doesnt get to 75 at closing then he owns QCOR at 86. to 87 area and would lose money should it go below that amount. which would equate to a price of $63.55 on MNK at time of merger. which is 20% below current price. So this investment means he doesnt need MNK to go up just stay where it is to make an 80% plus return. I really do appreciate your bringing up the question as it got me to looking at the proposition and the MNK options for Aug and trying to put together what was done. Very interesting. If I am correct the guy just made a $2.5m bet that this closes with MNK over 75 and to make $2m

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Jun 19, 2014 6:41 PM Flag

    the new loan with Citibank is a variable rate that will start out at 10.25 which is lower than the fixed rate at Deerfield of 12.25% and should be lower over the term of the loan IMO. What really surprises me is the rates corporations are willing to pay, I got a farm loan line of credit at 6% and 4.5% from 2 different banks. but I had good collateral. I hope they pay this back in full during the 5 yr term of loan.

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