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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rlbeard6734 933 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 8:37 PM Member since: Jul 17, 2008
  • Reply to

    Thank You Prospect Management

    by jmkdog Mar 19, 2014 4:49 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 19, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    this is the only comment to your question that has any truth or meat to it. The bare facts are that PSEC and other BDC are similar to pay day loans and car title loans and they loan to businesses at very high rates that cant get loans at regular banks because they are a high financial risk MOst of the loans are in the double digits while I am paying 3.15%. They (the companies they loan to) have a better chance of going broke than I do. When a recession hits you had better be a long ways from this one. The good news is that is a few years away

  • Reply to

    Thank You Prospect Management

    by jmkdog Mar 19, 2014 4:49 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 19, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    first jmkdog I AM NOT SHORT, SECOND we tried doing this bet before and you wouldnt commit, remember, the only way I make bets is to put the money in an escrow acct to be disbursed at the end of the event, I dont take anyones word on a message board that is a losing proposition with no chance to win. So your statement is totally empty, your bluff was called before and you dont have the balls to put up.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 19, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    you have to realize they got 1.6 million for the month of december alone which is at that rate which i believe low 4.8 million a quarter.

  • Reply to

    Obama needs to work more on job creation

    by otistongee69 Mar 5, 2014 3:49 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    I would pay for a plane to give him a ride half way there so he wouldnt have to swim the whole way, lol

  • Reply to

    Obama needs to work more on job creation

    by otistongee69 Mar 5, 2014 3:49 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    he has given us a stock market?? you mean that devaluing the dollar by 50% is something to be happy about? He has helped the ultra rich not the poor he is suppose to support in rhetoric only. The poor have gotten poorer under him and more of them to vote for the great promises of Obama. The truth is that if he would pass the Keystone pipeline, give incentives to switch cars to NG and forget the green global warming agenda he could create a lot of jobs but people with jobs are less likely to vote democrat. The only person that would be worse in the WH would be Hillary.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    I can think of some more reasons
    1) taking profit while there is still a capital gains tax
    2) diversifying
    3) wanted to buy something
    4) need money to pay taxes for 2013
    People that ask that type of question always amaze me as if it is there business why they sell, I am more interested in when they buy and dont these people ever sell a stock?? heck I have a hard time holding them very long.

  • Reply to

    1st Qtr earnings estimate

    by ruby2626 Mar 18, 2014 5:52 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    by using a rxn count from IMS I have figured that the Sovaldi sales should be around 1.8 to 2 Billion dollars this quarter using 65k for the 12 week rxn If this is so then last quarter 136 m in sales added 5 cents so i have figured that we will be in the $1.15 to $1.25 range which will be a solid beat and run this stock up considerably if the estimates are not raised significantly between now and then.

  • Reply to

    look for Psec

    by rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 12:37 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    my reply was that you said the shorts were paying "your dividend" and NO i am not short, I have never shorted a stock and I believe it to be unethical and that it should be outlawed.

  • Reply to

    7 million Shorted Shares ?

    by vattars Mar 18, 2014 5:22 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    three comments, 1) if you sell before ex dividend you dont have share price go down the amount of dividend 2) 7 m short shares is a very minimal amount of the total outstanding sharesq
    3) shorts will pay the dividend but they get it back in reduction of price

  • Reply to

    Secondary

    by donalso Mar 18, 2014 4:33 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    and again alta is correct, you have a new ID and ask a question that the slightest DD would have given you the answer.

  • Reply to

    Then why are Insiders selling like mad?

    by popebenedictxviii Mar 18, 2014 2:31 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    there is also some thought that the democrats would like to negotiate LTG away and tax as STG are taxed. that would make me also sell before that happened.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    thank you for your response and I really appreciate the report on sales at various pharmacies and the fact they can hardly keep it on the shelf. This will mean a beat on the earnings for this last quarter. I am really happy we have Par as a partner, I hope they do so on our next Anda also. They have connections that would be hard to duplicate on our own. As you know I am very long this stock so my questions and comments are sincere and not bashing so I appreciate your kind response and not taking it wrong.

  • Reply to

    look for Psec

    by rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 12:37 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    and here I thought the company was paying your dividend, hmmmm so all of your stock is shorted?? The question was not in the wisdom of owning this but when to trade it and my point is that for those that want to trade this that they need to be ready for the sell off that the index selling will cause in may or sooner. They need to set a price and be diligent on pulling the trigger as this will IMO cause a great opportunity to enter. It is obvious to everyone that it will be undervalued and that it doesnt change the company but to bash me for an accurate statement is not rational. The crow you may have to eat will be your own pie not mine. BTW I never short and that is NEVER. I think it should be outlawed. I see no positive purpose as it creates a float and stock that is not there and drives the price down temporarily

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    to trade down or below 10.50 by june 1st, it is getting closer by the day, gave me #$%$ for this at 11 and now half way there, even after Putin deal is basically behind us, this is a fundamental change that will temporarily take it down get ready for it and dont pull trigger too soon

  • Reply to

    Some FACTS about PAR

    by ms.wardcleaver Mar 18, 2014 12:15 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    again sales are not profit and you are mixing the two, you need to take manufacturing costs out of the sales before alloting a portion to IPCI personally i would use 25% of sales.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    the arrangement is a profit sharing not a revenue sharing so I believe you percentage of sales is too high, I would look at PAR's gross profit margin on all generics and use that for a figure and divide it by 2 for our portion

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    2 facts you are missing
    1) because exclusivity is up doesnt mean immediate production by others
    2) doesnt mean people or pharmacies will switch as price differential is small
    3) some exclusivity production for other doses hasnt even started and that means they are unlikely to produce this dose either but will lose their exclusivity time frame. Par plans on the other doses as soon as possible, Par is an excellent partner and follows through on its agenda
    4) last conference call stated Focalin sales were doing well and exceeding expectations so the report will most likely be even better at end of the feb
    5) Par should be sending us a check first week of May
    and earnings report should follow that.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    I think you need to reread them, my numbers are from the fully diluted shares numbers which include all preferred and diluted shares and the total of diluted shares increased annually for the last two years, the only place I can see they are going is to employees exercising stock options and that means a billion dollars in two years has gone to employees on stock options. That in my opinion is very extravagant

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Mar 18, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    we have enough np last week for 250million in sales for one week and this stock is down, talk about market craziness, this should be exploding, what will it take, I say it will have to translate into earnings before the market changes attitude again. Those Sovaldi scripts are so far ahead of all estimates that people must not be reading them or putting the numbers to them and they havent even began to show a slowdown in the upward slope of sales.

  • Reply to

    Come now...

    by bertrand_sternwood Mar 14, 2014 3:36 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 14, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    i am glad you are happy (gay)

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