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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rlbeard6734 229 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 24, 2014 8:17 PM Member since: Jul 17, 2008
  • Reply to

    MOVING UP

    by south81sk Jul 2, 2014 3:01 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 2, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    and the volume is real good also, I would take some profit here if I wasnt expecting earnings and rexista news this month, BUT i agree maybe a leak and earnings come out after close.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 2, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    he did say he would if it got above 4 but not how much above 4. My guess is this board is stuck with him and when it hits the teens he will be complaining how much he has made and cant sell because of the taxes. and how he had recommended this to everyone too bad they didnt listen lol

  • Reply to

    Earnings release tomorrow ??

    by teberb Jun 30, 2014 5:46 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 2, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    there are a lot of key words or double speak in that statement:
    1) estimated from history 2) once the company announces the date (because to date they have never announced it they just posted it) Zacks is not a respectable reporting entity in my opinion and can not be relied upon even as much as Yahoo.

  • Reply to

    So quiet here

    by uvainvestor82 Jul 1, 2014 12:52 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    that is where you sit in a tub with a pig like uva investor, slit his wrists and watch him wallow in it.

  • Reply to

    another 10 cents down

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 1:45 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    I am comfortable with holding this for the inevitable whether it be one week or two years. I will just keep trading 10 to 15 % of my core and wittleing the price down. Looks like I may get my trading position back, I would tell you at what price but after I get it Plan on adding 20k shares. Contrary to some posters I have no trouble buying or selling those quantities you just have to do it in smaller increments and be patient but we are getting close then if I can make 10 to 15 cents or more I will sell it and add to my profit and reduce my net cost basis a little more which is where I started this post and got so many red thumbs. I dont move price when I buy or sell, judiciously is the modus operandi which is easier when you dont care if you have to hold.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 2:07 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    I have seen it a lot in the 2008 time frame when I did a lot of M&A investing doing arbitrage it is because they think there is a high probability it wont close. The clue to successful investing then was to figure out which ones had a lot of questions that would close and return large percentage gains in short periods. I would do 8 or 9 trades a year then with a 50% or better yield on money invested but would usually cash out after I got most of it. had only one that didnt close for me and I got out early enough to still make a little. most of those were a lot smaller companies that we have here with some fianancial financing problems again not here. This is the best deal of the year imo for the following reasons:
    1) this will close unless some fraud comes up but DD has been done and that chance imo is less than 1/2 percent
    2) corporate egos are involved (this is not meant negatively) but they have made committments and done DD so to back out hurts a lot of fheeelings and very hard to do and save face.
    3) this is a good deal for both companies, MNK is very accretive and Qcor gets tax shelter
    4) being larger means larger salaries for the executives at some point
    5) larger company has more power to wield and can get more deals.
    I put this closing at almost 100%. The only question in my mind is what will be MNK price at closing. A year after that I have no doubt it will be 25% higher barring a market meltdown. YOY comparisons will be huge. MNK will make another deal before a year passes on this finalizing because of cash flow Stockholders will be well rewarded. Shorts in MNK will decrease 50% or more on the first report after merger due to arbitrage delivery. shorts in Q will be sacrificed to the pits of despair. Hallelujah

  • Reply to

    options question

    by purelljay Jul 1, 2014 10:25 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    once they announce the final merger date it is most likely they will explain that scenario but if I were you I would cover the call and sell MNK calls to compensate that way you wont have to worry about it you need to sell just less MNK calls than you did Qcor calls approximately 9 for ever 10. It is a difficult calculation to figure out what they will do so I would not risk it besides you will make money doing so as Q will go up more than MNK so you will gain.

  • Reply to

    The entire market is flying high...

    by bertrand_sternwood Jul 1, 2014 2:02 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    there is some hypocrisy here, you recommend others get out but you hold??

  • Reply to

    another 10 cents down

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 1:45 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    in my name 120k in my dad and sons accounts another 30k shares. I manage all the accounts.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 2:07 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    I have no problem getting it done here it just costs extra, but I did get it for no extra in CHina just time. and it only cost $1 in china

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    this has shown a lot of styrength the last couple of weeks and this will hit new highs before earnings easily and then pop some more at earnings. for all of those that have waited for a period of time, payday is just around the corner. Be strong and long

  • Reply to

    another 10 cents down

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 1:45 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 9:03 AM Flag

    four thumbs down, when I am probably the largest stock holder on this board and most bullish, ALL i really said is that if it goes down I will support the price at a certain level and buy more. My core position is long for at least several more years. I do trading to make money and get my cost basis down. If it headed up like a rocket I would never be sad that I didnt get that trading position of 20k shares as I am long 120k shares not counting what I have in my sons' and father:s accounts. I am here til the teens at least.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorting 10,000 at the open

    by uvainvestor82 Jul 1, 2014 7:31 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    good I have an order in to buy 10000 at the open

  • Reply to

    Obama moving all possible forces to the border

    by whysitasking Jun 30, 2014 3:17 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    come on , have a sense of humor, it was funny. Not even democrats can say this president has been stellar.

  • Reply to

    You Can Thank Me Later

    by usefuloptionsguy Jun 30, 2014 8:08 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 2:10 AM Flag

    well I see part of your problem you like to buy high, do you also like to sell low? I have been in this stock since January and while I expected it to be much higher now, I am not dissatisfied as my average cost is 76 and I am up 8% which is better than the overall market. the best thing is still the untapped potential for appreciation and since I am in for the long term that is fine. actually since i bought a lot of jan 2015 $40 calls those have me averaged up a little higher on YTD return. While it is nice when occassionally I buy a stock and then it soars it is not what I expect, I dont expect it to go up because I bought I am not a Carl Icahn or Warren Buffett. Time takes care of most things and I am sure this will be one of them. If they keep making money sooner or later thay will be rewarded. With the amounts of cash flow they are getting they can just about buy any company they want in a short period of time. The executives are astute here and they will grow this company and its share price The gentleman that brought this to my attention got in this in the teens and he isnt complaining.about price movements or lack thereof

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 2:07 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 1:50 AM Flag

    Pj it reminds me of the chinese economic model in part as over their no one can make a decision, if it is not on the program it takes an act of god. I went to a KFC and wanted hot fudge on a strawberry sundae and even with a local chinese interpreter it literally took 40 minutes to get a decision that i could get it. They went from one manager to the next all the way to the owner to make that little decision. NO one had the authourity or wanted to make a decision without someone above them giving them permission. Well our govt is a lot like that no one wants to make a decision or to work or get it done easily My real reason for the call was to see if I could illicit any information about how soon it would be or if it was imminent but they were very careful not to even hint at that other than what has already been announced.

  • Reply to

    Investor Relations

    by rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 2:07 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 1:42 AM Flag

    It was my feeling that their was a filing of registration that wasnt done of first app by MNK but it has been done now and they are just eagerly waiting. The govt moves at its own pace and it can not be sped up. One of my biggest frustrations is why should it take a generic 10 times as long to get approved as a new drug after filing? If the politicians really cared about healthcare costs and not power the approval for low cost generics would be much faster. They could be slowing down approval for tax revenue purposes as I am involved in several companies that are doing tax inversion and they all are slow or it could be business as usual for govt. I have developed property in several jurisdictions (cities) and the process is always burdensomely slow.IT seems to me every time you add a person to the process it doubles the time to make a decision

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jul 1, 2014 1:22 AM Flag

    maybe you need to take your own advice, because you dont understand what I do and how I make money doesnt mean that no one else cares. How are you doing on your investment here? are you making 10% per month because that is what I will make using the thing you dont understand or whatever it is you do. It seems you are the chump. If you go back you will find it is he who jumped on me as you did without really knowing what the heck is going on and I have seen zero information from you that I couldnt have gotten at the pool hall. regurgitating what comes out on yahoo is not what I call real information i call it plagarism.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    one more comment with the "venture capitalist with dozens of CEOS with more failures than successes" (that phrase is a laugh every time i read it) I am very bullish this stock or I wouldnt be temporarily parking money here or trading it when I need a huge some of cash over the next 6 months. the fact that I am short term is only more bullish, selling the options was just a way to increase my return. I get hoggish and would leave half if it stays under 16 as my immediate needs for cash would be meet for another month, that should be read as more greedy and more bullish. as I would roll up to aug $18 calls. for a credit. the order is already in on half of my account. they did give that guidance according to you that RXN numbers were strong at the presentation and that is why i added more and talked a few friends into doing the same a week ago. including my 89 yo father. who also sold $16 dollar calls for 7/19 What amazes me is that you are a venture capitalist and I have to explain these numbers to you. Maybe that is why you had more failures than successes.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jun 30, 2014 11:05 PM Flag

    I only hope so that I can sell more high priced calls but I will be ecstatic if it goes over as I will profited greatly. the hog in me wants it to be 16.25 to 15.90.

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