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ConocoPhillips Message Board

rlbeard6734 97 posts  |  Last Activity: May 3, 2016 7:34 PM Member since: Jul 17, 2008
  • Reply to

    If the CEO gets HZNP to $88 by 1H, 2018...

    by ouch_yikes Mar 15, 2016 3:52 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Mar 15, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    imho, no on is worth 1/6 of the earnings of the company. that is outrageous and the BOD should be fired. I will be voting against everyone of them for what they did.
    they gave up more then all of the growth for the next 12 months. I saw this doen with DGLY and they practically have gone broke. You can not pay one employee that much of the companies earnings.on a regular basis. His previous salary was fair enough. This raise was not tied to anything such as growth, earnings, stock price it was just friends on the board voting to steal from te stockhlders. This guys main accomplishment has to been buy a drug and raise its price. NOT a lot of brains involved in that. I will be looking for an exit from this stock at the right point if it can make that now with this much going out the door.The market obviously didn't like it. IRRESPONSIBLE

  • Reply to

    Shorts Expect an Unprecedented Move

    by russianmule2000 Feb 26, 2016 3:28 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 27, 2016 6:28 AM Flag

    pb, I agree earnings will be a blowout even with the costs of depo they will be at upper end or over

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2016 6:30 PM Flag

    the way I read the report they sold 40M in stock in janurary and february

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Feb 24, 2016 3:28 AM Flag

    in biopharma now is huge. This has to be close to a bottom with that type of pessimism I am seeing on numerous biopharma boards. biopharmas with 7 PEs is ridiculously low. Now is the time to be buying and adding because these will explode when republicans win in November and Hillary goes to prison where she belongs and not the WH

  • in order to even meet the minimal analyst targets, they have basically said 32 million more n revenue which is 1000 scripts per month increase to year end. That number is so low no wonder the stock languishes. we need script numbers in the 5 to 6k monthly increase range to get profitable by year end. CMS approval should more than double what we see this month as will good results from minimal usage the first few months. I would like to see at least 50k scripts for December 2016. Then we will know we have a winner.

  • Reply to

    End of May PDUFAs

    by stock_lurker Feb 23, 2016 4:12 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2016 5:33 PM Flag

    what keeps the stock price down in bulls that sound like you that are too weak and ready to sell. The bullish sentiment on this board has been destroyed.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2016 2:43 PM Flag

    with HZNP tax basis in Ireland, yes this would be a great purchase and they have a great sales force. I most definitely think we are in for a surprise. 2400 is only one script for 50% of the nephrologists which is not that high of a bar.considering the combined sales force of RLYP and Sanofi We wont see the effects of CMS approval for two more months, slightly next month.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 23, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    my guesstimate is 2400 scripts

  • Reply to

    Value of the Company

    by edwardmonaghan146 Feb 19, 2016 8:00 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 22, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    I have to partially agree with you but MS/Berens are smarter than the others or at least more powerful as they took the stock price from 40 to 16 and that would make any short happy. I am very long and even added 2k more shares today. But MS has been accurate so far and the others have not and that is frustrating

  • Reply to

    I'm on the shorts bandwagon! Go Shorts!

    by jomski0718 Feb 22, 2016 3:49 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 22, 2016 3:54 PM Flag

    imo you could be waiting to close to the cut off, Berens is siting this up for a huge upside surprise on Wednesday afternoon after close. If you want a position you should be getting it today

  • Reply to

    MS Beren's Tanked the Stock This Morning...

    by golongin2008 Feb 22, 2016 3:02 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 22, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    as much as we longs hate berens, MS will remain popular and followed when they recommend selling a stock and it goes from 40 down to 16. That is one heck of a profit for their short clients. The fact they haven't covered will be forgotten because of the first run down. They will continue to be a power with that type of money making and we will continue to pay. imho and I added today.

  • Reply to

    P/E is way too low

    by phil_inarizona Feb 8, 2016 9:20 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 21, 2016 12:19 AM Flag

    the talk is not cheap, if the democrats get in profits could be halved on biopharma, all they have to do is open up medicare to price negotiation or shorten patents. Because of the abuse by some that have bought drugs and raised prices inordinately the whole will pay.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 19, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    yes there are reports that earnings will show $4.28 loss, that they had to pay people to take Veltassa, that ZS( will get full approval and all of market and that they will accept a BO at #2.98 sarcasm intended.

  • Reply to

    CC next week!

    by abc9allen Feb 17, 2016 5:18 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 18, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    the people bringing those burn rates up are usually bears or shorts or soft bashers, yes they have a burn rate and it is important but more important is that that rate will be getting a lot smaller and imo wont exist before year end as they go profitable. they still had those studies 4th quarter but you are correct they wont have this quarter but they have more employees, they are trying to hire several district managers for sales currently and then there is the all important sales revenue that will drastically improve that number throughout the year. I doubt seriously that there will be a SO unless they buy another company. SO are bad if the money is needed for day to day operations but not if used for investments. It is like borrowing money for a vacation (bad) vs borrowing for business expansion that will bring money in at a faster rate than going out.

  • Reply to

    CC next week!

    by abc9allen Feb 17, 2016 5:18 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 17, 2016 7:42 PM Flag

    numbers should more than double for February with Medicare coming online and the docs having a chance to see results from January.

  • Reply to

    this is a test

    by faosto Feb 16, 2016 1:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 17, 2016 6:14 PM Flag

    we are not dreaming of a $20b market that is what several analysts and writers have stated. This number can be figured out yourself using the 3 to 3.5 million patients with hyperkalemia and multiplying by the $475 that medicare is paying monthly. . ( I got this number from the 20% copay of 95 on tier 4 plans listed by justarook)

  • Reply to

    this is a test

    by faosto Feb 16, 2016 1:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 17, 2016 6:10 PM Flag

    if you read the article it was thrown out In gest. IF they only get 5% they will have at least 1 billion in revenue, it wasn't a prediction just an example of how big the market potential was and how great of an investment this was. He made no prediction on how much of the market it would get. but it seems like everyone jumped on that number which is ridiculous to me. Yet faotso faults me for 20 billion market which is the number put on by this article and claims we will get a market share equivalent to my estimates 60% and would be $12 billion or at least $$150 per share in earnings with that $1000 per share seems cheap. I don't know how he can belittle my prognostications when he reaches similar goals but has not worked out the numbers. Just as he was wrong on the launch date.

  • Reply to

    CC next week!

    by abc9allen Feb 17, 2016 5:18 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 17, 2016 5:56 PM Flag

    they are doing it early to announce scripts for January at least that is what the CEO said at a presentation a week or two ago. He was upbeat about scripts but didn't give a number. I would not expect anything on BO front, cash burn rate will be equivalent to last quarter maybe a little higher. Earnings report will be a non event, script numbers and any guidance will garner all the attention. The WAIT is finally over until next month and next report on scripts with medicare coverage beginning. It could be a very big day for RLYP

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 17, 2016 6:11 AM Flag

    the main difference I see is that they borrowed the 12billiion to buy pharmasset and they now have 50 billion in cash making 1/2% per year sitting in the account.

  • Reply to

    this is a test

    by faosto Feb 16, 2016 1:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Feb 17, 2016 6:03 AM Flag

    shorts should as well as longs expect a short 4th quarter it was approved oct 22 but not sold until the end of December.and it is a 20 billion market otherwise 5% wouldn't be million and if they split the market with ZS9 as you feel then that is 10billion or about 5.2 biliion in profit which is 110 dollars per share in earnings what is that worth. you are more bullish than me perhaps but cant do the math??

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