who knows some day you may have enough shares that you depend on it, I can tell you that at this amount with the number of shares I have it is bringing in more than my and my wifes social securtiy does. each month by a considerable amount and I have played with the idea that even if it triples from here where I currently plan on getting out to not do so and live off the distribution so I can see where sheena is coming from. After getting use to spending it I could get accustomed to depending on it. I think you owe her an apology or just take the =embarassing post down. or do both.
are you a short, if so you need to cover, if not then why are you here but to look for an entry point, I was here from 2011 waiting for that entry point and found it from 8 down to 6 and wish I had added more below 5 and held it rather than day trading it.
mr gnoh as you should know sales translate into stock price. If there are no sales then stock price suffers and vice versa. sorry you are losing. but dont be a loser. My perspective to date has been accurate, dont you wish yours was but I hope at least it will be. I am not short. My analytical skills are fine as I have average returns for the last 10 yrs of 23% My reading and comprehension got me a 1620 on my SATs and got me a doctorate degree. Maybe is your comprehension skills and not being able to extrapolate from sales to stock price that is hurting your analytical skills. I know you cant post accurately as you posted your response to brad and it was obviously (analytically) aimed at me.
again anyone that follows IMS numbers knows that is true for every drug and that they are steadily at 20% underreported This is not unknown news but the usual for every drug and should be figured into those calculations people on here act as if it only happens with Vpak and ABBV that is not true. That PR is a hyping excuse as everyone knows that but they are trying to make it look better than it is. That will only affect retail and not any knowledgable investor. Having said that you are correct it looked good today and even better AH so I would expect that there is some good news coming.
you cant really use the milestones as earnings for you PE calculation as that is not a repeatable income but extraordinary is not going to garnish a PE multiple, nor should it so you are left with 67 earnings minus expenses put a muiltiple to that and you may get $20
this is not unexpected news therefore it should be considered in the market, the market looks ahead and what it is looking at now are 1) opec statements 2) rig count numbers, 3) whether BBEP can sustain its current distribution 4) oil basing around $50 inverntory buildup was in line and should even continue for a while unless the economy explodes (lol not happening under this President)
surely you know those answers, but if not here goes IMO they cut the dividend in half because the coverage would have only been .65 and cash flow wouldnt cover it and because oil dropped and they needed to prepare for loan reevaluation. They were scouting around for loan money prior to the drop on oil as it had never been their intention but they got caught by the drop in oil to put it all on the LOC. Oil is no longer going down but has based
Read the article by the Opec leader on oil prices. When the oil rises so will the distribution again as it did in 2009. They have to earn it to pay it. While your short thesis was good for a while it is now time to turn to the long side as you should have done below $5. I was a bear from 20.50 since 2011 and turned to a bull about 6 weeks ago as I had been waiting for an opportunity as this has given me. The last time I bought into this was 2009 at $7.50 and I got in a little early because I didnt think it would go as low as it did but I am sure I will see 20 plus again in less than 3 yrs. I CAN WAIT IT OUT. Just as i got out at 20.50 in 2011 you need to cover now for sure.
every turn around has to start somewhere nomad and I never expect to call the bottom or the top, I just want to get close and get the middle 80% or so. My goal when I bought this falling knife was to get a large position and ride it to almost a triple and that is still my plan. If the distribution which I at one time (when I was buying) felt would be suspended but now do not after reading a well written and supported article is not suspended and oil stabilizes around 50 then this will go to $10 in a short period of time (3 months or sooner) then our short ranting will cost you dearly, if not I am ready for it and below $5 you should have covered it now has rallied 40% plus off its lows and that is a turn around.
they do not have to borrow to cover distribution they have a 1.35 coverage for 2015 and a 1.3 coverage for 2016 and will havee enough cash flow to pay 70 Million per year each of those years so you are giving bad rumors.
nomadinx, I think part of his logic, mine and the markets is that if they do not have to suspend distribution (which at least one SA author has documented with a table based on various oil prices, the hedges and the cash flow to cover and loan requirements) then this should go to $10. I think that is why you have seen a substantial rally along with todays distribution announcement and the basing of oil is causing and will continue to support. The dopes may well be the shorts that have not taken profits when they should have sub $5 and continue to hold and lose more of the profit they had. Things do change and you need to be aware of that regardless of being long or short I was a bear here until I started buying at $8 and on down. cost average at 7 now and will drop another 8 cents in 10 more days
I said that it could go to 10 this year yesterday based on current distribution, it will have to raise distribution to go any higher. IMO but I am around til 20s
I agree they send a form that tells the CPA where to put every entry, it is not a problem except waiting for the stupid K-1 s
in the next 20 yrs you will see the next Depression and PSEC will not survive. MHO. It is not a stock as such it is a bond and has very little way to increase its NAV so it is range bound, you are collecting all earnings so it can not gain value besides its range around NAV.
and several people have made good suggestions on reasons for this but the oils I follow, cop, memp, apa are up also although not as much percentagewise, I have heard the Saudis have said oil was low enough but cant confirm. I still think this is a reasonable possibility considering how most oils rallied today and AH is still up combined with shorts covering, dead cat bounce, oil up slightly, whatever, I know it made me a lot today and for both of my sons I sold some jan 2016 $5 puts at open. That should be a gift.
if the market has decided the distribution is safe then it should level out around 10 at this distribution level that would make me very happy waiting for oil to recover.
Here is another fact to consider, on every front since the ESRX announcement GILD has beaten ABBV, first they get several PBMs to grant them exclusivity or prime choice location, they get several European countries to side with them and then they do end plays around ESRX with the insurance cos that ESRX serves. With all this going on then script numbers will not improve because the drug is not superior or even equal. You have to take 6 pills vs one and you have worse side affects. If there were no side affects it is still more difficult to get patients to properly take 6 pills vs one and that alone would make doctors prescribe and insurance cos to approve the one pill treatment. Because compliance is important to success and ins wants success in order to have more expenses the one pill will always be superior then add the side affects and patient complaints over them and both doctors and ins will balk. If i had Hep C and know what I do and a doctor prescribed me Vpak I would question who was paying him and switch doctors. That is how I feel and why I switch from owning both to just one.
this was fun to watch, it is the first time I have been long when there was a short squeeze and that is sure what this looked like today
I have seen no PR or anything in the 10k to give this suggestion, I think the posters making it up are misleading people to try to get out or to pump, as far as I know the major non reporters to IMS are govt and
Walmart.and a few minor players, most drugs are bought through distributors (about 4 to 6 in the country) and they report. It would not benefit ABBV to not report unless they felt report was poor. Hype brings success look at aapl. You were more fortunate than I, I sold a little earlier at 48 when it didnt immediately pop then it began to smell I was looking for a 20 dollar pop and the dollar didnt get it. I am sorry to seem argumentive but this was disappointing. and I really dislike people using profanity as it is a little childish and not a way to have a civil conversation so I laid into him hard for that and his bogus statements that could not be supported. I dont care if it is bullish or bearish just as long as it is truthful..