It has been a big question, normally I dont do these arbitrage unless I am very certain it is going to heclose so my feeling is that it has to be 95% likely or better or I wont do it. When I was doing smaller companies it could be a problem with financing, I do not see that here, so it is more a matter of egos than financing or if there is a major problem such as FDA comes out and says ACTHAR is fake, and I dont see any of that regardless of Raven who is a big short blowing his mouth similar to Ackman on his short herbalife. Timing is a guessing game until they announce, I would hope we have an announcement before earnings but I have a feeling it will be after earnings or at CC of earnings but in that time frame which would put the vote around mid to late Aug and merger end of Sept. I think it goes to the end of 3rd quarter but before another dividend is paid which would be in late OCT. Besides egos which is maj
or in these deals this is a huge money maker for MNK It will almost double their earnings next year. MY fondess hope is that MNK closes just under 80 when the deal hits oct option expiration then I hold myMNK for a year or more. LONG term this is a deal that will keep on making money. The CEO reminds me of the CEO of :Middleby Corp. grew tremendously by acquiring stock went from 20s when I owned it to 150 now at 244. Made a bundle when they bought out OVEN and everyone thought they wouldnt close. made 45% in 3 months on over 250k shares. met a lot of nice people then including a hedge fund manager from Chicago who returned the favor later
i HAVE given that some thought but it was a 9% gain for 4 weeks on the average price of options and stock that I bought of 23800 shares and if it is around 16.25 at option expiration I will be able to roll it to Aug $17 or $18 for as much money as I have sold the july $16 for. but it could run past and if it does I will only make 9% for 4 weeks and sit and wait or find another deal.
you are correct but his 5ok is low also. Most are looking for 2.5 billion for the quarter aNd I am expecting 2.8B and earnings of 2.30 per share.
I would agree with you personally I feel the earnings will beat handily again maybe as much as last time.
lol that is funny, good answer. but having a decent day I sold 8600 shares of trading account and back within 10k shares of core position. Need it to rally 10 more cents and I will be back to core position unless it goes down to 3.68 again where I will load up again but something tells me the earnings are being leaked due out within a week
this is the way to carve down your cost basis, buy at 3.67 sell at 3.84 made a grand today off the last sell off on 6500 trading shares. dont complain make money
taking high risks and paying high premiums is not the way to make money it is called gambling. We have talked about this many times.
you have one heck of a lot of call contracts bought finland, you are a big boy. 400 calls spread from 70 to 85 is not small change. and that is what you listed who knows maybe you have more that is over 300k in call options.
but they havent announced a vote date or sent the proxies out to be voted, I am interested in those dates, the date proxies will be sent out, the day of vote, and the day of the merger. I have not been able to see anything specific to those dates.
an announcement of date of merger on earnings CC at end of july. or lst of Aug by Qcor or MNK?? They need to be sending out proxies if they are going to close this in the 3rd quarter.
I agree with muskyman quit hitting for the lottery with options those are losers most of the time. Buy the stock and forget it. If you dont have enough to buy the stock you dont have enough to be in the market.