the point about the lipitor was that it was not all in the stock price but took years and years to get to an apex in price but you are right the stock continued up also because of Viagra but who knows maybe this one will get a second great drug down the road several years also but meanwhile it could double or triple first. The problem with the $8B in sales estimates is that is only 3% or less of the market and I think it will be much larger much quicker than people are figuring and that will drive it as lipitor exceeded and drove PFe.
I think exiting your core position would be a serious mistake, this is a long term play here for the next 4 to 5 yrs with Sovilda coming to the market. Day trading should be kept to the sidelines and not touch core because it could get away from you very quickly, trying to pick the apex on a rocket is difficult at best unless you are controlling it GL In the last three weeks I have made it my largest holding and it is in the lockbox although I do day trade it with margin funds very short term. I now have 13k shares of Gild and I see it going to be a 4 bagger before I even consider selling any of my core or more.
do you read your posts before you post because "I strongly believe Buy back stock & split again it"s not part of the company goal" is very confusing. It is obvious that both have been an integral part of the company's plans and that one should consider that to be the norm for the future. When you look at the previous splits they had nothing to do with acquisitions but only were done once the stock reached $80 and that is true on each and ever one of those splits like clockwork.
I used to hold long term and found that I was a better short term trader as the taxes were les than the stock going back down in most situations i was in. I will do 6 figures in day trading this year and it is not any harder to file than anything else you just provide the total numbers to the IRS as reported by your broker and bingo. You pay the taxes and be happy you made the money to pay them. I have some stock I hold long term as a core position and everything else is short term trades sometimes as many as 6 times a day on same stock.
personally I think he is being conservative
1) earnings will go up by more than 50% as sales of Sovaldi will be enormous( my estimate is $4 per share)
2) other drugs should be coming out soon also
3) IF YOU compare this to PFE when Lipitor came out PFE over a 5 yr time frame went up 20X the beginning of lipitor coming on market and Sovaldi is suppose to exceed sales of Lipitor
they got Erwinaze from their earlier purchase this year, they are using their profits from Xyrem to provide for a stable of drugs in their portfolio and pick up other drugs in the developmental stages, and they are maximizing their profits by domiciling in Ireland. Some wise people here. They are going to continue to grow stock price here. The last year has been very exciting with what is happening overall. As I said before they are not only growing earnings and drug portfolio but that is also allowing them to grow their PE. Just need a stock split so that the average Joe can buy this easier and Pe will expand more.
You might look at GENT chart, in july 2013 it was at 7 so the news has been out in Italy for a while, my guess is that they don't have the insider rules we do as it rallied up to the buy price and that the deal was cut a while back and not announced until the drug approval in EU. This works better for JAZZ than PFE because of the tax structure in Ireland vs here or Italy. It will be a great fit for Jazz as it gives there platform additional drugs and will help expand its PE as it becomes a multi drug pharma rather than a one horse show. they are deploying their cash wisely.
I trade considerably, some others I have currently are Jazz, IPCI, and BAC, I bought aapl at 80 and sold at 600. But my most exciting one in my mind is this one. It has great great potential, if you want to guess how much go look at Pfiser and how it was when lipitor was announced and how much it grew in the next 5 yrs. then you will get real excited.
well it did pop $3 on that news but it was already expected so not much to the news. As far as Jazz it has popped after hours and there is news it acquired an Italian biopharma that will be earnings accretive and gives it a larger stable meaning its PE will go higher multiples since it is growing up and not a one trick pony any more. The pop in Gild on hep C has been coming slowly for several months since july. it is only evidently news for you. But the real news is what earnings it will create then you will see the pops when they come out with reports on prescription numbers from IMS after it is initiated. if you look at Pfizer when it did Lipitor it didn't pop overnight either but gradually went up with the earnings. This is not to be unexpected. I just can't wait til april earnings report or IMS numbers as they are reported on Sovaldi
I bought over 7k shares at 56 at beginning of year and it has doubled for me, I used to own it at 8 and sold at 15 and was very sorry but eventually got over it and got back in. This time I am holding for a 10 bagger. It is staying in my portfolio unless they decide to do away with capital gains then I sell before that happens and wait 60 days to reenter Another good long term stock is GILD it will explode in the next 3 yrs also A little more risky is IPCI but I think it has opportunities to go up 5X in the next 3 yrs. GLTA longs. Tomorrow will be very exciting.
if you look at GENTs chart you will see it was $7 in july of this year so I would say in Italy the word was out a long time ago and all the relatives bought. They may not have the insider rules we do but my bet is that jazz has been looking at it since july and was waiting fro europe approval on the drug and had already cut a price much earlier. Gents earnings next year are estimated to almost quadruple from this years and that is with Italian taxes but they will become a Irish company now. The press release said it would be earnings accretive next year and the stock imo has gone up for several reasons
1) earnings accretive
2) the drug will eventually be approved in the USA
3) this gives Jazz more drugs in its arsenal so they aren't relying on one drug which will help expand the multiple people are willing to pay
4) other drugs in GENT pipeline potential
This will be another good add on as was the one earlier this year.
if you look at some of the recent pharma deals or partnerships and we get one that has a milestone of $30 million which is not unheard of and this will go to $8 so fast the shorts will get crushed. And they have 8 drugs in ANDAs that could make that type of announcement at any time. OT I bought a lot of JAZZ in mid 50s early this year and it is up $5 to $12 after hours on news
now isn't that a little contradictory, if it has the best drug profile and superior label isn't it the leader when all research shows that not to be true that GILD has those claims.
actually the premium more than likely will go up but you will have for example on a 70 call now will have two 35 calls and while the premium may be down each contract it will be up on the two contracts total and more than likely the stock price will appreciate even though it is the same stock because it more accessible to some buyers so demand goes up
that data comes out weekly one week in arrears, so if you have access it comes out every friday. I do not have access but would appreciate information of reports.