I agree she will make all her hedge fund buddies a lot of money for the contributions she receives. just like she did in cattle and hog belly future trading years ago.
part of our problem lurk, imo, is that the analysts have not raised revenue guidance as of yet and still have us with little to no sales, everyone but you and me have sales at around 40 million for this year and that is nothing in sales for this drug.40 million out of a 20 billion potential is an absolute failure. (on the part of analysts and estimates) Either this drug is good or it is useless and estimates are saying useless. When script numbers come out I am expecting some big upside surprises that will raise eyebrows and estimates.
Short squeeze time is my big dream.
vs, I think the marketing is taken care of Sanofi has been hired in addition to their reps and most of the nephrologists have heard of it and according to a sample of 105 docs 1/4 have already prescribed and 80%have or plan to, if I were a short I would be covering because if script numbers come out in 10000 range for first month this will absolutely explode and that is only 2 scripts per nephrologists not counting cardiologists or hospitals. While that number seems large it really is not with 3M potential users. That type of number would make all analysts raise revenue and earning estimates and upgrades. We have only 3 more weeks or so and we will get our answer.
Anything above 2000 will make me happy.
kuw1, that is my point, if kaexalate is not very good and this is the first improvement in 50 yrs and it is superior to ZS9 why is anyone long buying the thesis of 5% of market. That number was originally thrown out in an article about RLYP that said IF they only get 5% it would be $1B in revenue and that is hardly anything but everyone grabbed onto that number Personally I am looking at them in 2 yrs getting 60% of the market or more. Script numbers always start off slow but what is slow with 3 million prospects that need a drug that is superior to anything else on market? Now when Sovaldi came out with GILD for HVC the weekly number was 800 and grew to 3000 within months and that was a weekly number. I think the shorts are in for a severe surprise come earnings conference when they report script numbers. If they don't have blow your socks off numbers then maybe AZN and Berens are correct and this is an inferior drug.( I don't buy that) A number as high as 10000 would not greatly surprise me but the market is ready for 1000 to 1500
A huge number will put Berens in a real bind and silence Rascal. There will be short squeeze that we can all enjoy. Otherwise time to reevaluate.IMO.
this has a $20B market out there at todays price per script on an annual basis For a 40M share company that is a bigger drug than Harvoni is forGild with its 1.4B shares. that is almost 40 X more shares so you would need a $800 B market and they cure and we continue treating for life. This stock is selling for pennies on the dollar. If script numbers take off this could explode $100 dollars in a day.
I think when script data comes out that all long holders will be raising their price targets on what they would sell for Mine is 4 figures.
what amazes me is the low expectations of most people on this board,
1) zs9 WILL have problems with FDA and at least a delay
2) kaexalate?? has its problems and is not the drug of choice although it is the cheapest
3) we already have CMS approval after only 6 weeks on the market
4) we have 2 reports that sales and dr acceptance are above expectations
Yet the best estimates are for a measly 5% of the market even by our rabid bulls in several years
I ask you, who is drinking the bearish koolaid here. Why are we not taling about 60% of the market in the next year?? frankly I have been killed in this biopharma and oil market thanks to Hillary but I would not be happy to sell this for$60 with its potential and the CEO iMO is refusing to listen to offers because he sees what I see as a potential $40B $1000 per pill but $600 per month. This flys past any congressional oversight and will be a huge success that I have already given my price target above and the 9000 shares I own will make me very wealthy if they just hold in there and develop this market. I really expect that we have over 25% of market by yearend.or more. NOW who is the rabid bull.
my personal opinion is that the CEO of Rlyp has gone on attack mode against AZN and is getting not only his statements out but getting other data published by Yahoo Finance
contributors and Spjerix Global to offset what he sees as an attack by Berens and AZB and MS.
I think it needs great script numbers and revenue estimate increases to improve in price. It needs to blow the socks off the numbers we need some earnings estimates above a dollar
and this is a wonder to you that Hillaiary Clinton who needs major contributions from her hedgie friends wouldn't let them go short then bash biotech and send it freefalling. All you democrats should be real proud of her for the contribution you just made.
they had stated that they were going to do it monthly but I am beginning to believe what you are saying. it sure isn't doing anything to help stock price. we could use some good news.
my guesstimate is slightly higher than yours but in the 1000 to 2000 area which would be one script for 1/4 to 1/2 of the nephrologists in the USA in the first month, I also agree that doctors will walk softly to see results in worst patients first and then add on and once medicare is approved they will already have a feeling for usage and scripts then will really take off. I think growth will be slow for 2 months or 3 then with medicare approval will get exponential for a year before tapering to a slower growth rate. But with only 1000 NRX per month and continual renewal we will reach 50 M revenue this year Anything above that will get upgrades to revenues and earnings.
borgati, Ihink linear and what I see is current estimates of 40 million revenue for 2016 and believe that is very low bar to meet.
if every person refills their script and scripts increase the same each month then at 1000 the first month you get over 50 million in revenue and that is not a lot of scripts. The faults in that is that scripts will grow more rapidly after successful use by doctors and as medicare is improved and not all will refill as some will have complications.but 1000 scripts is only 1/4 nephrologists writing a script that is filled each month, very poor in my opinion especially with approximately 80% of insurance companies offering coverage already. so if the script numbers come in above this number I believe you will begin to see multiple upgrades to revenue expectations and profit potential and a nice rally The time is rapidly approaching to see if my feelings are accurate for the month of January but I am expecting a good start even without medicare and much better once it starts.By summer we will have a decent pattern This of course will be greatly affected by the outcome of this years elections and which party is in control of the three branches.
personally when I read the release above I thought it was a partial capitulation on his part and that he is beginning to cover his #$%$ on rlyp