bought into a GILD position again just a moment ago as it looks oversold again today with earnings coming up first of November just a short term trade 2800 shares.
you know freddy, this is very mysterious to me, while I thought this could happen and made a large bet that it would it still in todays market wonder even more about manipulation and I am not a conspiracy type person. I don't know who to point fingers at tor this action, I was correct or lucky but cant tell you why for any surety the differential between conversion price and depo market price is getting to point that there is a lot of risk premium there. I don't know whether that helps deal or not. But if you see a lot of people before mid oct buying depo and selling hznp for arbitrage you will know they are voting for deal and booking premium. it is out to $1 or was now 77 cents.
I personally made a sizable bet that hznp would rally to the $35 level by November vote so I added a lot of hznp stock early this week at 28.78 and originally sold oct 33 calls at 54 cents but rolled out to nov 35 for an additional credit of 35 cents or about 85 cents after commissions.to make $7 per share if correct and looking good on that one right now.
mixed feelings here on outcome, depo is falling behind the offer of .95 hznp could be interpreted two ways 1) market doesn't think deal gets done as depo is $1 below money or they want more premium for the risk 2) deal goes down because of the money still on the table.
well obviously the analysts were wrong because they have been offered a buyout at a huge premium by hznp, I rolled my oct $33 calls to nov $35 calls at a credit as this was moving faster than I expected on the additional shares I bought early this week at 28.78 my premium is now credit of 80 cents so I would get $7 profit on additional shares if above 35 by nov expiration which is where I think it needs to be to get the depo deal done.
you have not #$%$ me off I enjoy the banter and learn a little along the way, it has been a civil exchange and fun. keep me straight as I will you from time to time lol I have practiced for 40 yrs and saw a lot of drug abuse and early in practice refused to be a part of it. They will eventually come up with an abuse resistant hydrocodone or oxycontin and that will hurt depo and other opiod sales drastically, the fda is just waiting so they can put an end to it. count on it happening in your equation of investment here. It is the main hang up I have in hznp buying depo as the nucynta franchise wont last 10yrs before what I have said happens. It will revise pain prescriptions from drs drastically to the point that if they prescribe they could lose their license if a problem occurs. I sit on a state discipline board for5 yrs and was chairman of it for 4.
yes I saw those posts and agree with both of you on most of your posts, the reason I added 10k shares of hznp at 28.78 this week was I felt there would be a run up to the low 30s prior to nov 6th vote. I sold oct $33 calls against it. and if it gets close I will roll out to nov calls $35 maybe even tomorrow if this rally continues and I can get some juice on the rollout. at that point they can have those 10k shares and I will keep my $7 per share profit. heck I may let them have it at $33 and keep my $4.80 profit for the short period of 5 weeks and let the rest of my stock in hznp carry me. I do have some depo so if the merger goes through I will have another 5700 shares of Hznp. This has been a very good stock for me for the last couple of years and now is my largest holding and about half of my portfolio. Heck if they paid a dividend I would probably never sell although I have sold almost all of my GILD to get into this this week.
thanks for the additional information geri. I am beginning to think that if they don't vote for the deal that TW may walk with this additional information.
thanks PB for the acknowledgment I would add that DEPO has fallen back on the .95 share conversion, and is now almost 90 cents under conversion price. There seems to be a premium being figured now for the chance of it not closing. I think the premium gets larger until the vote is announced as positive for Hznp. It is nice to know they have 5 other deals they are working on so it wont really matter if this doesn't go through. I am convinced for myself that if HZNP doesn't get up to 35 area that this depo merger wont happen. NOw that I also own depo that would make me sad. But the BS is dying down so we will find out in the next 7 weeks.
no as an owner of both stocks I find them extremely similar in profile and how they do business, I make a habit of never buying below $5 stocks,although some go below $5. I see both with business models that are alike so it is funny to me to see your comments against one that I feel apply to both. I also consider opiods as the "wrong" type of drugs, before I retired I was a dentist and I refused to prescribe hydrocodone, oxycontin types of drugs which even years later I feel justified in since they have become one of the most abused drugs in history. I feel that it is only a matter of time til the FDa bans their sale as soon as something comes along that can replace them that is non abusive(if there is such a thing) the reason I feel depo will downgrade them is because of this opiod drug market although it will be longer term. BTW Hznp has numerous drugs in the pipeline that will grow it enormously if approved without any more acquisitions to the 70 to 80 price range in the next 3 yrs. You need to open your eyes also, I own 5 shares of hznp to everyone of depo I own.
since it has been said by many on both sides that they have similar business models and the fact that Hznp has grown faster than depo your statements are a little suspect or laughable. my lowest purchase in hznp was 9.45 and the stock has done very well for me at an average of 13 and many booked profits from sales of daytrading and bull call option spreads that are multiples of 6 figures.
If it gets a downgrade it will be because of its purchase of DEPO and I own both. I do see them increasing their offer back to the
$33 in stock unless hznp stock goes above 35 then they will leave it as it is.
I don't disagree with that comment as I bought an additional 10k shares of HZNP early this week at 28.78 because of the thought that they would have to get price up to get deal done, but the fact that depo has fallen behind now 60 cents is a little unsettling as it shoud be trading at a premium slightly if one believes the deal will get done and at a better price. This looks like hznp is rallying because the deal wont happen and depo hasn't caught on yet as it will fall hard will deal collapses unless a better offer comes when the vote fails. I was thinking they would raise the offer going into the last week or two going into vote if they didn't have the numbers which at current price I don't see them having but that is why I am holding out on the solicitation until last week before I decide. unless I unload my depo sooner .
hznp rallying and depo not keeping up, people are losing faith that this deal will go through and depo is backing off the conversion rate. at .95 shares it should be up another 50 cents and if you think hznp will offer more it should be trading even higher. If deal doesn't happen this is telling us this has a lot of downside. imo
this is a one time dividend and I doubt that qualifies it for a dividend paying investment. Personally I think it is a very positive statement for this quarters results but would have rather they kept the money for future use until the coffers were fuller of money but then I do not have all the information that they have so I will be happy for what it probably means.
bass is an attorney that runs a MF that shorts a stock then sues them before the FDA to make his sjhort profitable, it should be illegal