i am buying more this coming week, i think the picture has been painted as dark as it can the truth as I see it is that the secondary was announced because they will need funds for the new production facility and the staff to run it. The trial is doing well and they are preparing for approval and getting into production to sell the product. This stock will shoot up like ICPT did on thier day of announcemnt The potential revenues here are huge for such a small stock float company. Using 1/3 of the potential annual market is 6 billion in sales and my guess of 3 billion in income or $100 per share in income even at a 10 PE you could see 1000 stock price when this gets settled if not bought out too soon.
how can you take the risk that the phase 2 trial is very successful and they start production and sales this year. If this is only a 1Billion dollar drug(and some estimates are 12Billion) then the earnings would be 500million with a 50% net and that is $10 a share even if they dilute to build a prodcction facility. which woulod easily give you $100 per share, my goodness if they hit 12 Billion then you could see a stock with 4 digits. Who could stand that risk no ownder the calls have such a high premium.
not all of us had that tax consequence, I was in at a higher price than the day of the inversion and I still have the same cost basis and the same date that I purchased, The IRS only taxed the gains and didnt allow any losses. It is the penalty for the inversion to the stockholders.
hyman, it is my opinion that they dont need the secondary since they have 84 miloion unless they get approval to start production, the 84 million will get them through phase 3 and annual expenses for the next 12 months or longer so their only need of a secondary is to get a production facility up and running and the people to man it. So I look at the secondary as very bullish becasue if it is done it is becasue the phase 2 was so good that the FDA is allowing pro=duction before phase 3. I have not heard any other logical answer or hypothesis for the need of a secondary at this point .
yes i bought 42k shares and sold the may $17,50 for a net cost of $10.20 for 5 weeks vs your 3 months is study is delayed for any reason will sell the june calls and buy back the may Lots of volatility in options on this one right now both sides of fence some feel it is going to $8 others to $30 plus
I dont believe they would need the funds unless they are setting up a production facility which means phase 2 is so sucessful that the FDA is going to allow production and sale before phase 3 so it will be after announcement of phase 2. SO IMO the offering of more stock would be very bullish at this point and considering their current cash on hand.
explain why as they are perfectly same to me. I have sold may $17.50 calls at $8 and if the phase 3 results are delayed past may 15th I will get to keep all $8 and be able to sell june calls for $7 which will get me all my money out of this stock. I bought the stock and immediately sold the calls because of the high premium and my feeling this would get approved and if not then my cost would be around $10. I f I dont get it called away by May I might be able to repeat and have a cost of $3. If the phase 2 results are delayed for any reason then all of those high premium calls and puts will expire worth a lot less than today. If you look at the april and may costs of the $17.50 calls you will see what a huge premium decay there will be. NOw explain why the comment is dumb. What is dumb is someone paying $8 to buy a stock at $17.50 in 5 weeks or $8 to sell a stock at $17.50 in 5 weeks. that is 1/2 the value of the stock. That says the shorts expect a huge violent sell off and the longs expect a huge violent up move and I plan on taking advantage of it.
I just dont see an offering until phase 2 results are announced and maybe not even then. If results are exceptiona this could go to 100 so why sell SPO at 15?? but if results are very bad then why go to phase 3. To need the shelf you need decent results that are not quite good enough for FDA to approve skipping phase 3 before production. This would still be good news and stock would go up. They only need the shelf to start production facilities and not for phase 3.
actually a incompentent boaard if indicative of shareholders is easier for shorts to manipulate and make sell their shares, it makes me more nervous. retail investors with less than 1000 shares are holding on y the skin of thier teeth and are easily flushed. But there are also a very lot of large holders in this one.
I think the reason for that is that they got a higher percentage of total rx than they had been getting It was around 5% and now 7%
I am sorry didnt see your post til now, I would agree with mike's comments. I have sold nearby 12.50 calls to mitigate my cost basis. for may . I have traded it numerous times and my actual cost basis is near 9.25 so I am comfortable. I was not very excited by the purchase of Zohydor either but believe it will work out once they get abuse detterent approved. maeanwhile it will be a sideways IMO
it is a spec for me also but if it is at 15 to 17 in may it coukd become a longer term hold an awful lot depends on end of month phase 2 results
I have been in GILD for almost 2 yrs , I usually only trade 5 to 7 stocks at any one time and take large posiitions, GILD at one point was 65% of my portfolio but I have sold off almost 1/2for nice gains, my second largest holding is HZNP i bought last june and it has doulbled for me, my other 3 are PTX, CLDN and BBEP. I am upside down in BBEP but it is a 2 to 3 yr double or triple the way I see it. I got in it in 2009 and tripled and waited for this opportunity again. When I get some cash I will be looking at Zinc as it is the only commodity that is becoming harder to find. Large mines are running out and zinc will be going up in price. GLTU and thanks for ocmments you have made me a fan forever. Rather it works out or not it was a great idea and I thnak you for sharing it.
i sold the may $17.50 alls and boughh so I the stock. I am profitable down to $10 for may and max at 17.50 I really hope they do delay for a month as that will allow me to do it again and be profitable down to $5. I really dont care as long as it doesnt go below 10 everything above will be profit in 5 weeks then we will play it again if available as you say or it not and it goes above 20 then I will book my 70% profit for 5 weeks and be eleated.
this has a huge premium on the calls and you should really look at them buying the stock and selling the calls reduces the risk level to alost zero and gives plenty of upside I have never seen anything as lopsided as this in 30 yrs.
It has nothing to do with BBEP other than this is where I met cheapstkbuyer and he has helped me and given good advice and I am trying to pay it back a little this was titled to him and not to you so dont read it if it bothers you. BBEP will go sideways and it is boring right now so lighten up a little and maybe make some money. its a "message" board