you wanted proof or data for a different run rate on sales of vimovo well TW from HZNP at their last health conference stated that prescriptions were up 30% YOY and a year ago they sold 42 million of vimovo at a lower price so that equates to near 53 million or a royalty of 5.3 million for coming quarter.
when does the 90 days start as they announced merger 4/20 and my feeling is they close this the first few days in august to avoid paying a distribution to new lre and eroc hoders but avoid eroc distribution but before july 26 th to avoid LRE distribution and they would save a lot of money if they dont then the CFO is doing his job it would save over 15 million to VNR
then you have all of these foreign countries that budgets require so much money they will produce regardless or face revolution which may happen also. The Saudis really stirred the long term pot with this one. but it will play out the world wont end.
theoretically you are correct but in reality what happens is a lot shut down and oil production drops dramatically and the few that are left are saved by prices going back up. currentyly we havent seen that and you may well be right that the distributions are cut to nil shich is what I feel they should have already done but cash flows and hedges will keep it going for another year before they may be forced to bite the bullet harder some sooner than others. There are always bottombuyers and there will be some left that arent as bad off as the others or that have other capital available or friendlier bankers or slower to pull the plug. Currently we are seeing more oil come on line as rigs shut down which is normal. We wont see oil production dropping for at least another 5 to 6 months then slowly and steadily it will drop and oil will begin to recover and as it does the financials will improve but they wont begin drilling for a year and a half as they will not have funds for capex or distributions so production will drop more and oil will reover more then they will begin to reinstate distributions and start slowly drilling again. It is a regular cycle I am sure you have seen it before and if you are too young then remember it for future opportunities, me I got in too soon and should have been more patient but I am able and willing to wait..
rolled all my $16 calls into $15 calls and took a 23 cent 23 cent profit on the $16 calls a little less return overall but I only need vnr at 15 now to make the arb work so I will sleep better and still make 17% if it closes above 15 in the 3 month time frame I feel it will close in.
sure I bought my jan 2017 $15 calls for $17 when the jan 2017 $30 calls reach $17 i will sell an equal amount of them and recoop my initial investment an d be left with a spread long $15 short $30 and wait to collect my $15 profit and use the original proceeds to do something else more than likely I will be able to do that sooner than waiting for the $15 calls to reach $32 in value but make the same amount of money
this time bought 10811 shares eroc at 2.73 and sold 20 Oct $15 calls at 1.55 expecting it to close by
Aug 5th for a 15% return as long as VNR is above 15 not including the distributions.as more than likely the premium will disappear by closing.and i will exit rather than wait for last dollar.
i am up on mine 17% in three weeks when the jan 17 $30 calls reach the premium I paid for my $15 calls then I am selling the $30 calls and wait for the $15 paycheck and recooping all funds while i wait.
to be clear I was not recommending borrowing that leverage can hurt you severely. I was just recommending some possible alternatives for cheaper commissions and prompter trades. Gltu
the answer is easier for VNR because it has a published financial report vs you which I have no information on at all. As I said in a previous post this
is a merger not a buyout. I hope you understand the difference. The point is I get .185 shares in the newly merged company. I can take the key stats from thier combined financial statements and come up with a total number of shares and figure debt to asset ratios coverage ratios on distribution and I can compare that to current numbers for
eroc and see if it is better. The value of any stock changes daily. too many of you are concentrating as if this is a buyout which it is not, it is a merger which means you get shares according to book value of both entitiesf. Then you should figure that there will be synergies that will make the future numbers even better as they get rid of duplication such as one CEO and one CFO salary, the reduced costs of financing, etc. The combined will hopefully be better than either of the singles. I hope this answers your question. If I was willing to keep either I would be more likely to keep the combined. As far as the lawyer ambulance chasers they are always there feeding on the carion, they have only their interest at heart and not anyone elses.
will close rapidly as the vote is taken and is positive and the date of merger nears. then the price of eroc will be closer to the .185 of VNR right now it is about .170 which is better than friday when it was .165 or prior to announcement at ,149
marydelapoer I would suggest two other brokers and the plus and minuses for you of each
1) ameriprise if you have over 500k in your account then the commissions on a smart account are zero if the trade is for 1000 shares or more, you have a margin account whether you use it or not, stock price is more than $5, options are negotiable on price 2cents per share
2) eoption $3 per trade regardless of size of trade, plus 10 cents per option contract in addition to $3 so 50 contracts is $8 they also have a great trading platform
I do like Ameritrades platform for charts and level 2 trading and keep it on my computer but their platform for trading allows for more mistakes and is not as convienent for me as eoption.
ask yourself this, if this doesnt close why would eroc go down and VNR go up unless this is a good deal for both parties? But in doing M&A arbitrage for over 5 yrs I have seen very very few deals that didnt happen and those few that didnt were mostly because of fraud or failure of financing and this deal requires no financing. Egos dont allow deals to fall through. This will close and my guess is between july 31 and aug 4th. as that date saves VNR 10 million dollars. and if they havent figured that out then they need me as their CFO.
because that is the truth of life, there are those that find ways to profit during distress and others that do not and you have co
nsolidation, otherwise there would be no product. In every industry that goes through difficult times there are those that find a way to profit and those that dont that is where good management shines and those that get a paycheck dont.
this is a good deal for eroc because they were going to have trouble meeting loan covenants, they had a terrible coverage of distribution just barely above 1. IF this deal hadnt happened they may have faced BK in two years.This is not a real sell out this is a merger. The question you should really ask yourself is, is the stock I am getting in better financial shape and be able to pay a distribution easier and make more money for me. I think if you look at the debt and distribution coverage and the reduced expenses of the new entity you will vote for the deal and be glad to own the new stock rather than the old. Rejection of this deal has serious consequences and the BOD knows this. There needs to be more compression in this industry and size will help it compete more. The smaller guys are going to cease to exist and that is what the Saudis are after before oil will turn around.
i am sure it will work out fine for you and I would expect you will be out by expiration but remember if you wait til expiration you will recieve 2 monthly distributions from VNR because I expect this to close after july 31st and before aug 4.