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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

rlbeard6734 628 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 8:43 PM Member since: Jul 17, 2008
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  • Reply to

    overproduction

    by slawsonjames Jan 23, 2015 2:24 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    I would have to agree but I am not sure who is going to learn the lesson from this ordeal the Saudis or the other world producers. it seems to me that it is hurting all of them significantly but giving some of us a great opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Short Positions

    by schieboutz Jan 23, 2015 2:11 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 8:41 PM Flag

    i bought and sold some today for a day trade, I thought it would sell back off today as oil came down, will wait to reenter on monday on the trading lot I trade. surprising strength today considering oil pricing and other oil stocks as a whole didnt do as well

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    she knows all I do she is clairvoyant, it is scary, I have over 2 million in the market and mostly in 3 stocks Gild Hznp BBEP are my top 3 holdings in that order. She gets all she wants to spend but is frugal, me I am a hip shooter and she doesnt really ask that many questions but my annual returns on stocks have been over 24% for the last 7 yrs except last yr was 7% due to a dec crash in biotech which hit my top 2 holdings which account for 70% of my portfolio

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    considering they have better than 1.35 coverage of distribution then they have about 70 million to pay on debt

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    this is true with every drug usually their numbers are 20% below reality and this is a fairly accurate reduction stat. but then the sovaldi/harvoni numbers suffer the same problem I have watched these numbers and compared them to earnings on several stocks and they are fairly accurate guide to what is happening except for discounts and actual price recieved ..You can not use the statement above to deter the problem of a failed launch or at best a poor one. the statement you quiote is well known through out the industry and if used by ABBV is only an excuse not anything new for any drug reported.

  • sales of Vpak were TRX 181 nrx 180 last week TRX was 117 vs sovaldi/harvoni which where over 9000 for both weeks each. so they are getting about 2% of the market so far

  • Reply to

    150+ million in milestone payments plus

    by brad_210000 Jan 23, 2015 12:48 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    then they had better not listen to you for either you are a liar or stupid the royalities are 3 to 6 % on a sliding scale that no one knows the slide on. They are double digit on 30% of the sales not all of the sales You need to read the PR a little closer or quit lying

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    ESRX does not subscrihbe the doctors do they only negotiate and fill scripts and they limited theirs to V pak day one but a lot of insurers they cover cut deals and went around ESRX with GILD and numbers are way behind initial sales of sovaldi or harvoni for their opening weeks The market is afraid that it is a flop and this hurts ENTA more than
    ABBV. that is why the price is hurting. It is an inferior product to harvoni plain and simple leave out the emotion and the hope AT one time I owned both ENTA and GILD but sold all ENTA shortly after approval.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    the numbers for the last week reported today were sovaldi/harvoni TRX 9394 Vpak 181 again dismal and I did not say they got only a one time payment although that is what the 130M milestone is but that at current sales their 3% royalty was not going to pay administration costs 3% of less than 400 scripts for 30 days each is not a lot of money

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 23, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    brad you talk big but do you know any facts the facts are that the sales are very low, the last IMS data out for the last week reported had viekra sales at 117 scripts, this is an undisputed fact That number is dismal and way behind the Sovaldi/harvoni sales of over 9000 scripts for the same week and is not good for the 3rd week out even compared to the third week of Harvoni or Sovyaldi. AS far as ESRX not starting sales that is false they started day one of approval but a lot of the insurance companies they work for have struck deals with GILD and are not allowing ESRX limit to use of Viekra as they announced. Rather than make ugly statements you should get more knowledgable about what is happening and why your stock is going down so severely today. I have not seen todays numbers on IMS reported scripts but I will look and get back with you but my guess is they havent gotten a lot better and that is why you are down $2.

  • Reply to

    What do you think about it. no jokes truthfully

    by safetyalex Jan 22, 2015 5:42 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 8:41 PM Flag

    articles are old news, have you looked at the script data for ABBV on thier hep C?? they havent gotten 2% of the market on their first few weeks out. They are doing very dismally and that has not only hurt ABBV but its partner ENTA even more. If the numbers dont improve soon they may as well pull out of the market. that is truthful and why I sold my ENTA shortly after US approval when it didnt react as I expected. sure am glad, ABBV is going to underperform for the year IMO roll all of it into GILD

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 8:32 PM Flag

    and by the way you havent kept up I have 68k shares now with orders in for another 14k for tomorrow. I dont need to lie and I am not a fraud.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    had you a brain you could have looked and seen the order on level 2 trading but you may still do so tomorrow morning as it will still be there. How many aliases do you have you have the same post and I put you on ignore and you get a new name but same old post

  • Reply to

    Patients are a Virtue

    by geringerart Jan 22, 2015 4:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    I am surprised you can get a broker to allow you to buy calls in an IRA they wont let me buy but will let me sell, the reason I am so far out is I rolled my feb $15 out to the may $17 because stock looked too strong and I could do it for a 60 cent credit when I did it but stock was still below 15. I may be stuck with this one
    volume is thin in the calls on Hznp as you know and the deeper or further out of the money the worse the volume. I knew you where in those. You have done well. I have 43k shares and the kids have 8k shares. so it will be a decent payday Then I will have to be "patient" and wait for a buying opportunity or pay down some debt on some investment projects I have going on. It was too bad we couldnt find someone to gi ve us script data.from IMS

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 7:18 PM Flag

    I put in another order after the article for 4000 shares and so far have 400 filled AH average down a little more

  • Reply to

    gas prices down

    by rlbeard6734 Dec 4, 2014 4:25 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 6:43 PM Flag

    some times it feels like we are the only two on this board. good to see this recovering maybe after earnings it can get to a new high.

  • Reply to

    Patients are a Virtue

    by geringerart Jan 22, 2015 4:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 6:41 PM Flag

    just jerking with you a little, enjoy yourself, I am envious of living in Hawaii I live in Missouri and although it is warm for July it is not as nice as hawaii It has been a lot nicer so far this year I currently have sold May $17 and May $18 calls against all my positions and kids positions. it will give me a 35% gain overall but I feel I have made a mistake but I will cash it if it gets there or roll it for a couple of months to get to long term gains. So I have mixed feelings once it gets over 17 where all of my calls are sold. kids are sold at 18 I wanted to sell it all and roll to BBEP for a long term play but I dont know whether BBEP will still be down by then.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    the only thought I have is the fact that sales of ABBV hep C drug have been dismal and the earnings are from milestone payments which are a one time deal. So unless they invest the milestones wisely we are back to NO earnings. and what can you buy in biopharma for 130million, not much. The sell off today was worrisome. Glad I exited when it didnt pop much after the approval with a profit From here they need new partners or a pick up in script numbers on Viekra real soon. The last number on scripts Ih heard was 117 for the week. That pay much in expenses on the percent they are recieving

  • It lays out the numbers that are needed to meet the loan criteria to support todays distribution and it looks safe all the way through 2017 to meet those covenants so I will have to change my mind on a suspension in April which will make me extremely happy.

  • Reply to

    Gilead Hep C Formulary Exclusion

    by benefitspro Jan 16, 2015 3:54 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Jan 22, 2015 5:25 PM Flag

    you do realize that the insurers that express scripts represents have cut deals behind Express Scripts back and are dealing with GILD in spite of Esrx. The CEO went beyond negotiating and got his ego mixed up on this He has been beating up on GILD since the drug came out and it was obvious that he would do something with ABBV from day one to try to show GILD that he was boss. It backfired he went with an inferior drug that would cost his clients money in the long haul and patients more pain He went with a dollar instead of care and that will hurt the company. I understand the job of PBMs but he got power hungry rather than smart.

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