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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

rlbeard6734 424 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Jul 17, 2008
  • Reply to

    What exactly ARE ENTA's royalties on this drug

    by polynicotinate Dec 22, 2014 11:52 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 22, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    It is because there is not an exact number, from what I have read in the 10k filed it is a low double digit % of 30% of sales so somewhere between 12% to 20% X 30% or 3.6 to 6% of total sales on a
    sliding basis which means they have levels that start at a lower percentage and as sales increase they get a larger percent. This has not been totally given out in any press release on what the scale is so all of the articles are somewhat correct but not totally and somewhat misleading as some are not knowledgable such as SA articles that have clowns that wrote many of them and are replete with mistakes.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:44 PM Flag

    the news was out near noon and I was disappointed that it didnt go up more but elated that it went up several dollars after hours. i hope you are right and it ravages the shorts tomorrow

  • Reply to

    Counting catalysts

    by whatdiduexpect2003 Dec 6, 2014 10:37 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    at your price sovaldi will be less expensive to the states, medicaid, prisons and VA as they sell at a 44% discount. The 84k price is only a discount to Harvoni and my guess is that GILD is discounting harvoni at the same rate as sovaldi. Compared to sovaldi they have no discount and harvoni is superior to sovaldi and ABBV drug.

  • Reply to

    Counting catalysts

    by whatdiduexpect2003 Dec 6, 2014 10:37 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:37 PM Flag

    12% of 30% of sales is 3.6% and no one knows as it has not been published what the level of sales is needed to get above that number. Again on sovaldi they were getting 56% of list so at that level to keep a 12% discount you would be selling it at 493 per pill X 30/ script is 14800 X 3.6% is $533 if they get more then they are not a 12% discount. which is lower than my back of envelope previous statement. I dont believe you can get the 4 to 6% on the first 3 or 4 billion in sales but time will tell, me I will use conservative numbers in my estimates until more is illuminated so as not to be overhyped and disappointed. Maybe it is 1/3 of sales and that would give you 4% but my memory is 30% but even at 4% you get $592 per 30 day script which is close to my first estimate. That is with a 12% discount off of Sovaldi which we have public record on what the govt pays them through the VA. maybe they cut it more maybe they cut it less but the less they cut the less they sell. I hope you are correct as I own a fair amt of ENTA and the more they make the more I make.

  • rlbeard6734 by rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:24 PM Flag

    doubled in 6 months dont miss out again this time trying to hit bottom, jump aboard for the ride by july 2015 this could easily be 13 to 14

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    that was hilarious

  • Reply to

    Thinking about buying some of this

    by chestercopperpot19 Dec 20, 2014 7:48 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:07 PM Flag

    I would guess that at todays prices that he is closer to the truth although at the last CC you are correct

  • Reply to

    Jan 2017 Options Are Now Available

    by nosweat82 Dec 19, 2014 1:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:03 PM Flag

    but there are no options available on any of the 3 platforms I mentioned for 2017 so are you mistaken about them being open?? at any price.??

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    do a little leg work or invest in what you dont know, it was a typo they are NOT picking up option I gave you date go look up on yahoo on that date then do the rest of your DD and find out that the royalty is on only 30% of sales. tried to help but you are tiring me w your laziness

  • Reply to

    Thinking about buying some of this

    by chestercopperpot19 Dec 20, 2014 7:48 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    well they have in the past paid them from profits but with oil prices declining the speculation is that they will cut the distribution as will all MLPs if that holds. BBEP may be late to cut as others cut first because of their acquisition agreement but if their lenders say to cut it will be cut This is what we saw in 2009 here and why you have the opportunity to get in at a bargain price. No one can pay 26% returns in this world so you know it is unsustainable or the price of the stock will go up. But history and a knowledge of this company says that although you may have to go without a distribution for a year that at this price when the distribution starts again that you will get great capital appreciation and their distribution will grow.
    go to yahoo historical prices and hit dividend an look at it during the time frame in 2009 and after and the price appreciation. I am in for capital gain and not distribution. so for me I would just as soon they cut to zero and get their financial house in order which is not that much out of order but avoid the bank raising rates and demanding it but I have since found out that may not be a possibility because of acquisition agreement they will have to wait until at least april 2016 or later.and maybe this is cleared up by then but I doubt the oil picture improves that rapidly. I am looking for at least a double in stock price in 3 yrs and distribution is extra so that would be a compound 27% yield plus what ever distribution you get. I dont need the monthly income.

  • Reply to

    Jan 2017 Options Are Now Available

    by nosweat82 Dec 19, 2014 1:41 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 6:34 PM Flag

    OH i didnt see any mention of 2017 in any of your posts until now and that is correct, i dont know if any options at any price are offered for 2017 yet for any price on any of my three platforms ameriprise, eoption or ameritrade

  • Reply to

    Counting catalysts

    by whatdiduexpect2003 Dec 6, 2014 10:37 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    this is how I figured it 3.5% X 50000 (discounted price they get) / 3(no of scripts for treatment as most ins will only do one month shupply)
    sovaldi price is at $560 per pill so 12% less would be $500 per pill for ABBV which is only 42000 per treatment so my $50000 may be high whereas my 3.5% is probably correct unless sales go much higher but I am using $580 per script filled on total scripts for my calculations. The $560 amount for sovaldi was what the VA reported that they paid to GILD. but you misunderstood my $580 as it was for a 30 day script not per treatment. Scripts are almost all 30 day this is what we always used for our calculations on GILD scripts and then added 20%to 30% for unreported scripts as they dont report all pharmacies or govt entities. I hope this was helpful in understanding how I got their as I have found your posts helpful to me . so for each treatment I am saying $1750 but it is less reliable to use NRX than TRX as some of NRX are repeats and not really new patients. I wish we had the basis figured for percentage royalties and how the scale slides

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    I will do some of your homework for you 10/20/14 they issued a press release saying they were picking up their option on development costs and profit participation.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    they did not pick up that option and the double digit royalties are on 30% of the sales read further and study more as your thoughts were my thoughts when I first got in 2 months ago but I have educated my self a little since that time and been brought up to date. if you dont believe me than why are all the analysts calling for 3.5 billion in sales and Enta only getting 100million as those numbers work with what I have given you but not with the numbers you have I would look a lot deeper I went to google and googled up their deal and read it more thoroughly and the first hitch is it is on 30%of sales so 10%to 20% X 30% gets you 3 to 6%of sales. Look further and you will find the news release where enta did not pick up their option for the development costs and therefore dont get 40% of the profit but then the deal that they have is better than that 3 to 6% of sales before expenses could be better than 40% of PROFIT after costs and requires no up front money or expenses.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    you do realize that the ABBV drug only covers about 30% of the market that Harvoni/sovaldi covers and not all of those. You also need to realize that it is not the list price that is important but the discounted price which ABBV has not announced yet along with the cure rate and the additives that have to be paid for. There are a lot of variables here that no one has the answer for yet but will be forthcoming with script data. I for one own a bunch of GILD but also have a sizable amount of ENTA which gets a nice royalty off of ABBV sales.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    this poster who writes for SA has been shown to be unknowledgeable at best and untruthful at worst, he should be put on ignore as his facts are not true and are a fabrication of misquotes.

  • Reply to

    Viekira is no competitor

    by kbradbury122 Dec 21, 2014 3:46 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    it is my understanding that of genotype 1 45% are 1a and the rest are 1b and 70% of the infected population is type 1 so we are talking 31.5% of the population is genotype 1a so even if ABBV gets 50% of that population they will still only have 15% of the market and of the 1a some are not eligible for ABBV as per label. This is way overhyped for ABBV and gild will shine

  • Reply to

    Counting catalysts

    by whatdiduexpect2003 Dec 6, 2014 10:37 AM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    we should get script numbers weekly that will be informative to the direction this will proceed. from what I can figure based on $50k totat treatment and 17k per script we should get around $580 per script.fhilled on the low side and higher as we reach higher % levels. These are exciting times.

  • rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    you are wrong the royalty is 3 to 6 % of the sales on a sliding b asis that has not been disclosed. You probably didnt read very well as the higher percentage is on 30% of sales and when they are more of the package. on the approved drug it is what I stated above and on 3.5 billion it equates to about 100 million before ENTA expenses and R&D costs of running the company. Most estimates are based on that number and have earnings just under $4 for the royalties. Thought I would let you know before you bet the farml

  • Reply to

    Thinking about buying some of this

    by chestercopperpot19 Dec 20, 2014 7:48 PM
    rlbeard6734 rlbeard6734 Dec 21, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    i have been stepping in my buying as I never know when the low will be hit but I am sure that in less than 3 yrs this will more than double from current price. AS far as the distribution cut it has been my belief that will happen but it all depends on the banks as BBEP as part of their purchase of QRE agreed to raise the distribution to $2.08 annually and they are unlikely to cut it unless the banks require it so I feel that knowing that that the distribution is safe for another 4 months and it will depend a lot on the oil market during that time, if it settles higher then maybe no cut or very little and the price will retrace upward faster, if they cut it to zero then you might see this go to mid 5s but I am not betting on it I have bought 50k shares and still have an order in for an additional 20 at a lower price than current. Rather than miss it all I would encourage you to buy at least 1/3 now if not more and then wait on balance if you feel that oil will not find a base here and that the stock will retest its previous low. then average in. or you could sell some June 2015 $7.50 puts at a hefty premium and either keep the premium or get the stock for $6 and change.

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