they had stated that they were going to do it monthly but I am beginning to believe what you are saying. it sure isn't doing anything to help stock price. we could use some good news.
my guesstimate is slightly higher than yours but in the 1000 to 2000 area which would be one script for 1/4 to 1/2 of the nephrologists in the USA in the first month, I also agree that doctors will walk softly to see results in worst patients first and then add on and once medicare is approved they will already have a feeling for usage and scripts then will really take off. I think growth will be slow for 2 months or 3 then with medicare approval will get exponential for a year before tapering to a slower growth rate. But with only 1000 NRX per month and continual renewal we will reach 50 M revenue this year Anything above that will get upgrades to revenues and earnings.
borgati, Ihink linear and what I see is current estimates of 40 million revenue for 2016 and believe that is very low bar to meet.
if every person refills their script and scripts increase the same each month then at 1000 the first month you get over 50 million in revenue and that is not a lot of scripts. The faults in that is that scripts will grow more rapidly after successful use by doctors and as medicare is improved and not all will refill as some will have complications.but 1000 scripts is only 1/4 nephrologists writing a script that is filled each month, very poor in my opinion especially with approximately 80% of insurance companies offering coverage already. so if the script numbers come in above this number I believe you will begin to see multiple upgrades to revenue expectations and profit potential and a nice rally The time is rapidly approaching to see if my feelings are accurate for the month of January but I am expecting a good start even without medicare and much better once it starts.By summer we will have a decent pattern This of course will be greatly affected by the outcome of this years elections and which party is in control of the three branches.
personally when I read the release above I thought it was a partial capitulation on his part and that he is beginning to cover his #$%$ on rlyp
he will be a two state flash in the pan, plan parenthood, the NEA and the NAACP will see to that. this was a package deal to get Hillary nominated 4 yrs ago.
maybe you need to read a little further yahoo shows feb 8 to 12 and you are on yahoo message board, company has repeated reported in this timeframe and usually gives guidance earlier.
I agree w your statements but this is a conference for specialsists specifically nephrologists that we are interested in and not gps. he has finally given a number of 11 interviews and that is a believable number and the percentages work rounded off
here is HZNPs problem both democrat presidential candidates have called for drug price controls that would in effect cut HZNPs profits in half.
That is what is hurting us specifically and biotech in general
I did look at the flyer and these types of presentations are given monthly at many locations and 200/4000 nephrologists is a high percentage from across the country. but you could be right. I tried to pull up attendance but could not locate it. Nevertheless for his numbers to be correct he would have to have interviewed at least 50 doctors and that is hard to swallow. Math is one thing I am excellent at and that is the minimum to have those numbers or he is bad at his math or made it up.
as I stated his ID was just formed a month ago and he has posted only 3 times as of this post. Suspectful at best and I own over 20k shares so I would like to believe it but planning on prescribing is a blackbox also.
my opinion is that in one year that with a 3000000 market only 5% is not very much and that is 150000 patients or one billion in revenue (which is very much but not in market share) one of several things happens here
1) they get more than 5% of the market pr
2) the drug doesn't work as well as trials suggest and has more complications, ZS is superior or no medicare coverage
If you believe trials(FDA did), ZS is not superior and medicare coverage happens then this should capture a much larger portion of the market, I don't believe they would pay the amount of money they are paying Sanofi to market for the minor amount of $50million in revenue They believe and have positioned theirselves for much more. I also feel that if this wasn't going to be much bigger management would have already have sold the company but they want much more in the future than what is currently on the table. The CEO has been through this before
yes gout is painful but this disease can be deadly and gout is not likely to be so. I never knew anyone to die or be hospitalized for gout. the problem here is education of patient and the fact that by the time you have complications it is a serious problem that needs to be avoided.
I agree compliance is always an issue but those that fill scripts usually refill on continuing treatment plans unless complications, $ is an issue on filling at all and usually not a consideration on refill because either they can afford it realize its benefits or it is covered. I agree about medicare coverage and it is key in my mind also. I think at this price and acceptance by insurance that approval will follow soon, I am not so convinced it will for ZS
just started posting 12/2015, 3 posts and either he talked to 50 doctors or his math is faulty and I find it difficult to believe that they had 50 nephrologists at this one conference.
somewhat like my gout medicine I take it everyday all year long if I quit I get gout complications again.depending on my diet then the cure to get the problem handled is more heavy and trying on my kidneys than the regular daily meds. So I comply and take it regularly.
if they don't refill then they had complications as this is ongoing treatment and why the first scripts are not for one month but only a couple weeks If the drug works and they have less problems than with kaelaxate then they will refill or not be in compliance.
that estimate takes ito account no more sales after the first month but only refills on those scripts, if they get refills and sell 5k nrx per month they would sell 5, 10, 15k or twice as much as you figured when you look at size of market, precold calls and no competition the numbers could be a lot larger but who knows it is a guessing game. I will have to be patient for another 7 weeks