this makes me even more sure the deal is going through in Dec, this is a very coy golden parachute, they are about to turn their $3 purchases into $8
yes you and I agree on the Rexista, it will be a block buster for them if approved, it could replace all oxycontin prescriptions except for drug users and those willing to write for them
I would agree that they are still working on it, I have sent a request to IR for closing date information or publishing it when available if they have not released that information. I believe due diligence would require that and if it was signed the stock has not reacted like it yet. Upon a fixed closing date this will rally a dollar IMO
well lets hope for a PR announcement soon, I hope they close in the first half of December instead of the end although the end might be better for several personal reasons.
the date was NOV 2014 and that is the figure Yahoo;s three analysts have that follow this stock but that estimate was before the FDA approval, you should realize they are going to get 15 million upon that approval and royalties that have been estimated at $40 million annually on Falconin. If that proves correct then they will earn over $1 next year (and maybe much more) and estimates should be rising along with price targets and stock ratings. Those are facts, you can go to the SA article on 8/22/13 to verify those numbers, and that is without any more approvals which I expect at least one or two to happen in the next 12 months. NOw someone said that that was a long shot but these are generics with time release so the approval rating goes up, the only thing that slows them down is law suits and money being paid to the FDA people under the table (which is my opinion and not a fact that I can prove). This stock will soar upon the next earnings report and as estimates begin to rise. Now 55 million minus 2million/ quarter in operating expenses is 47 million and then we have to guess at production expenses for Falconin XR so lets say 20 Million as it is production and not sales as Par is responsible for promotion and sales. that would leave 27 million which is 1.23 the high estimate next year is $1.39.
there also use to be a philosophy to buy the dogs of the dow each year and they would outperform the rest of the Dow the next year and it worked for many years
my point is that is not the decision in an investment , the fact that something is up 100% makes me look harder as to what will make it go further, when something is down 76% i look as to why it did it and what will change it and the news out will change it if it consummates. It has been proven buying mutual funds that buying last years winners is a bad idea and will underperform the market in most situations so you really need to look beyond what it did last year and figure out the next year.
the second phase will add $5 per share and is to be distributed to share holders according to the CEO and they still have other assets to sell. I put the odds at 4 to 1 they close the first part which will convince the market enough for me to cash in and not wait for the other $2 plus as I figure time value and like i said have other deals to do.
in fact the first stage of the sale which is suppose to happen in dec is for $3 per share and the stock is currently at $3.60 and has some cash already. I added another 10k shares today on the sell off.
it is a good question, the answer is that on doing more research my first impression that Venzuela was buying them was wrong, Pluspetrol is a private Argentinian company so the likelihood of phase one purchase at $3 per share was improved greatly as it required no ones approval, while the second leg requires Venzuela approval, but in neither case can Venzuela stop the payment and the money from not going into the country and to HNR. My feeling is when phase one is accomplished which will pay all HNR debt and give them $40 million to run the operations that the stock will bounce greatly maybe to $6 to $7 area where not being greedy I will cash out as I have another place that longer term is more exciting that I bought 18k shares of today and would like to add 30k more that in the next 12 months expect to go from $4 to $20 and further in the longer term.
the trouble with trading is eventually as the market goes it quits paying, I retired a year ago and have made more trading than I used to do working as a doctor. But as penny one states I also still am busy farming, buying and selling real estate, and developing housing for sale and rental. The problem is that a to of you people have never learned the joys and rewards of working hard. I really enjoy keeping myself busy and producing.
it doesn't seem reasonable to me, it might happen but that doesn't make it reasonable, this just got $15 million for the approval of Focalin XR from PAR pharma and will be getting royalties off every pill they sell, they have 8 more ANDAs in the pipeline any of which could get approval at any time. The earnings estimates will be going up as will the ratings on this stock, This may go down a dime or so but any day it could go up another $1 or $2. I hate throwing out big numbers but with approval of oxycodone CR this goes to 20 as every doctor that prescribes oxycontin will be switching to get rid of the drug abuse. Any of the other drug approvals will take this to the teens. earnings alone on focalin will get it to double digits by end of 2014 Better cover your short
IMO the best of those candidates is the oxycontin, as doctors will swarm to it since it will be non drug user friendly and they can get away from the other. This one will be big for them.
look at IPCI and read about it on the SA 8/22 article and figure out what it will be making this year with the approval of its drug by the FDA this last week.
this sell off gives a chance to those that missed the first run to accumulate, it may sell off even more but when earnings come out and the 15 million from Par Pharma on the approval is booked it will be a very nice quarter, then you get the royalties minus production expenses and earnings will be over 60 cents per share for one quarter and this will pop with the extra funds they will not have to sell more stock to operate and they can concentrate on their pipeline. I accumulated today based on this thesis and will add more if it goes lower I really see this being $20 by the end of 2014 if they only get one more drug approved. And when the oxycontin is approved it will really pop as it will take drug abuse out of the prescription and doctors will switch rapidly.
that is true but has little to do with why I got in this am and would have bought 3X as much if it hadn't moved so fast, you realize that by the end of dec it will either be $2.80 or $6 or more and why then it really doesn't matter if it used to be 20 only that I got in at 3.30. YOur statement has little to do with the investment thesis going forward