you are not very knowledgable about this transaction, they would lose many major advantages in doing wha you suggest. 1. tax advantage of being domiciled in Ireland 2. lower interest rates due to DEPO being higher leveraged than HZNP 3. ownership by HZNP of 80% of depo based on how depo values itself if hznp valued the same way. the weaker taking over the stronger, hznp has 7/8 selling drugs depo has one with major expenses associated with it. You are seriously joking or really really naïve.
it is because they can make depo more profitable by synergy, PE upgrade, better network of sales, lower interest rates and tax advantages All of these things will lead to a doubling of the amount of money depo currently makes for stockholders and make it an accretive proposition within the year.
anyone that read that article realizes that that was one of the worst written analysis that they have seen, the writer was way off line on every point in the entire article, 1) listed 10 companies to go broke in a week 2) stated that oil would double by year end. didnt do any dd and realize that BBEP was making enough off of oil collars to be cash flow positive through 2016. that was one of the laziest written hack jobs i have seen in yrs.
I don't think their response has changed except they have to file a SEC response before they get nasty this time. They will give you their typical response in the next 10 days. Legalism takes over from this point forward. The fight has just begun but so far they have errored in not taking the $33 in stock offer considering the current market. if they had they currently would be at 1.13 shares of hznp. DEPO BOD is costing its shareholders
that makes little to no sense
1) if it makes anyone money it should make everyone that owns it money
2) reducing share count reduces supply which helps price on the basis of supply/demand which is a basic economic practice
3) if buying stock at this price doesn't make any sense then why don't you sell and not own it
TOTALLY ILLOGICAL except for the part about redeploying funds into another company that would be accretive to bottom line.
litheguy, I would agree that the deal needs hznp to either increase its offer or for hznp price of stock to drastically improve to get this deal done, I don't agree that MFs are buying more hznp to get the price up. I don't know what is driving HZNP the last few days but it needs to get above 35 to see this deal done. the premium discount could get larger if the deal doesn't get some green to it.
I agree and that was why I was very carefully watching Fridays action and fact that the discount had widened to 1.52 While this is still minimal considering that no date for merger has been set or no agreement to merge I would not like to see it to widen even more. I do believe that Hznp needs to get to 35 plus to see this merger go forward so as the price continues to increase the discount needs to narrow but that may not happen until the direction becomes a lot clearer. the downside on depo is huge if this falls through.
do you think TW scheduled the vote on nov 6th after he has announced earnings for a reason perhaps so that there will be a nice rally with early guidance to make the offer look better. that is my bet at this point I don't see it as coincidental at all.
I believe you are correct I just sent in my tender offer for 6k shares not only for the reason above but I believe the two combined companies will accelerate in price quicker than the two stand alone for several reasons which seem to be outlined in the prospectus
1)synergies 2 lower interest rates on depo loans 3) companies with larger portfolios of drugs sell at a better multiple, 4) lower taxes all of this equates to higher stock price due to better multiple and better earnings.post taxes.
interpretation of that statement, we will offer the lowest drug to make the most for our company, it may kill you but we want to make as much as possible.
hznp has always given early guidance since I have been in this stock but I don't know about depo I would expect them to give early only if it is extremely good in order to help in their battle but then it is not like they don't have a lot of time left before the vote so I don't see an early release as helpful for them as it would be for HZNP. Hznp needs to get stock price back above 35 to make this deal more likely to happen It sure will hurt the vote sub 30.as I don't think enough will vote for a 28.50 over with the stock at 30 and I sure don't want them to offer more stock.
thanks PB for the acknowledgment I would add that DEPO has fallen back on the .95 share conversion, and is now almost 90 cents under conversion price. There seems to be a premium being figured now for the chance of it not closing. I think the premium gets larger until the vote is announced as positive for Hznp. It is nice to know they have 5 other deals they are working on so it wont really matter if this doesn't go through. I am convinced for myself that if HZNP doesn't get up to 35 area that this depo merger wont happen. NOw that I also own depo that would make me sad. But the BS is dying down so we will find out in the next 7 weeks.
you are a liar if you don't think price of a stock you own matters and that was the context of the post so repost it and you said the price didn't matter as you where in for the long term(more than 5 yrs) that thought scares me because I will be in HZNP and you will own stock in it when this is over and I will have to put you on ignore as I wont be able to stand your crying and falsities on that board. Twisting things to inaccuracies is a form of lying also. imo
your memory is bad I went back JH and checked what I said and it was that you were a liar IF you said stock price didn't matter.so you are FOS still waiting for your list of reasons for no merger other than you THINK DEPO can do better alone, an unprovable statement since you can never prove the two if it happens only if it doesn't because you will always be able to compare .95 shares HZNP to depo price if it doesn't happen but cant if it does and IMO it will happen.
but it is quicker to vote off board if you have the votes and repeal poison pill rather than go through a long expensive court battle. this is what most hostile takeovers do now to thwart poson pill provisions.If you notice DEPO has not enlisted its poison pill and hznp is making a hostle bid for its shares directly to stockholders.
that is a WAG wild butt guess, no one knows for sure but take this into consideration as you have stated
1) DEPO price was 20 and change before offer
2)the biopharma industry has taken a severe hit because of Hillary Clintons proclamation and a lot of small biopharma such as depo and hznp have taken large losses of near 40%
3) depo price before Clintons statement was elevated from 2o to 32 pluss so it has not fully participated in the decline
4) some will say it would have gone up because of last quarters earnings but it actually went down day of earnings release.
My opinion is that if the deal fails the stock price will go down but no one knows how much. A lot depends on the market.but it could drop another $5 easily. AS far as your question for geri below I own both stocks and I will gladly take the offer as there are a lot of advantages to depo shareholders some of which are
1) a lower tax rate in Ireland
2) cost savings in synergies of a combined company
3) interest savings due to Hznp better financial situation
current debt of depo hampers the improvement of their earnings for the next several years see geri;s post on this on another thread.
4) HZNP Salesforce is more productive than dep)o in $ produced per salesman
5) multiple proven drugs rather than one provides a better multiple of PE for a company than one that has one drug that accounts for most of income this is even so for a company of the size of GILD
the 6000 shares of depo I own will be voting for a merger for the above reasons even though I paid in the 30s for the stock as I see better stock value increase in a combined company than two stand alone and I own currently over 30k shares of Hznp.
MM, you are like so many on this depo board that were correct on the outcome but so wrong on your investment, you oculd have had $33 had depo board been smart but now you have 18.48 and the market has spoken today. I have been against HZNP buying depo from the beginning as it would dilute my Hxnp stock value and the market has spoken again today on that issue. hznp was paying too much for depo. HOw long will it take to get back to $33 for depo? The reason shares were not tendered was not as you hypothesize but because they could do better at the time in the open market. It was a shock to me that the court of. CA voted the way they did with their laws on the books. But at least Hznp made the right decision and walked rather than continue this fight. hallelujah on that one. I feel that I won as a hznp stock holder and lost as a depo stock holder luckily I own 5X as much hznp as depo. revel in you win (loss in my opinion) if you want but years if you are in this that long and can logically think you will see the mistake here on this non merger. I most likely will sometime in the next month take my loss on this one and roll into another stock (RLYP) GOOD luck to you wallow in your win.depo does have good lawyers.