the bill would hurt BBEP and other oil producers, so I really do not understand the context of your statements in relation to the original post.
you must be a liberal democrat to believe that 1) regulations, permits, disclosures, monitoring doesn't negatively impact profits. That is why it crashed several days ago when the bill was first approved The bill is a wolf in sheep's clothing to stop tracking and that will drive up gas prices, reduce production etc. How can you feel that his statement is not in opposite directions and totally inane. California and NY are typical examples of rules and regs that have destroyed business and caused huge state income problems. California being the worst and almost broke, driving business away. The green people have about ruined the economy there. personally they should have to live with their regs and stop importing from other states their needs for power(gas, electric, coal) It always amazes me that the people complaining about environmental abuses are amongst the biggest abusers. Take Al Gore, his electric bill is over $3000 per month on his 12000 sq foot home but he buys green credits to help offset, that is BS he should live what he states he believes and he made his family fortune on strip mining and still has it running which is the worst of all mining operations screwing up the land for future use.
going to his post I understand his reason for investing in BBEP what I don't understand is why he thinks the California regs on tracking will help his investment which is what he is responding to. It is a major setback for their califronia holdings and if it spreads to other states and those that want to stop tracking we are screwed. I spoke with a women who works for a Calgary exploration company on my trip to europe for two weeks before this and she says they have been tracking in canada for 40 yrs. yet down here the idiots blame everything on fracking, water pollution, volcanos, earthquakes, etc. 40 yrs and no problem. That was an extreme surprise to me. what has taken us so long.
it strictly depends on the price of sale. It is somewhat like a bond, if people buy more bonds at 4% interest rates does that make them less valuable? if people pay more than face value for a bond does that make other peoples bonds less valuable? if they sell the new stock at more than NAV then it increases your stocks value if they sell it below NAV then it reduces your value. PSEC is like a high yield bond more than a production company.
in reality it is a non event, it drops what is paid and then the market determines how it is traded up or down, the distribution has little to really do with the stock price, it doesn't sell off or up because of the distri button it is just adjusted.
if you go to look at historical prices there are more times it is up than down over the last 3 yrs. since they went monthly on dividends it is less of an event, just as the ATM is less of an event than the SPO. It is not a deciding factor in buying or selling IMO. Yes there is a psychological event but I am not sure whether it is bullish or bearish. People buy going into dividend and then they buy because it is less cost after dividend then there are those that buy before and sell after. I give it a wash at best. However I just parked more money here today because it was going ex to get the dividend. and that it had bottomed on the near term 5 min and day chart for RSI. so I was looking for a small rally to proceed over the next couple of weeks past exdividend. for me I trade this and use it as a money market parking place until I find a stock I like to buy that will give me capital appreciation. This I treat as a bond or money market stock with a huge yield.
it only goes down the dividend you receive, the other movement depends on the market.If you believe the market is going up you buy, if you believe the market is going down wait. Personally I can't figure out what will happen each day that easily. Macroeconomics is more important, the best short term indicator I have followed are the RSI based on 5 min and one day and both of those are below 20 and starting up so I say buy now or miss out and that is what i did this morning at 11.38 should have bought earlier but i was trying to buy some HIG at 31 or less and didn't get it done before it ran up so parking the funds here for a while looking to try to make a few percent in less than 2 or 3 weeks.
so my feeling is that they are a buyout candidate waiting to happen during the next 12 months if earnings keep improving. it is easier to buy the company than buy the use of the technology imo
I agree with a lot of your points except the volume issue, it has turned over almost a 1/4 of its stock in a month you can't get much more volume out of a stock with 8 million shares and a smaller float. that is always the problem in extremely small companies. It is why I usually don't buy these types but the other items you have stated have gotten me heavily into this one because i like the fundamentals, earnings prospects and feel that it could easily be bought out for a large amount more than it is trading at now. PATIENCE
I think the price action is great for a poor market day. it steadily went up until it hit that plateau at 11.43 and it could not break above like there was an enormous amount being offered at that level consistently. Not once could it break to 11.44 after moving up all morning. I will not be surprised to see that they sold a million shares with the ATM holding it at this level. tomorrow I might change my mind depending on the market and what happens but right now that is my gut.
looking at price action before exdividend for the last several years doesn't seem to validate your statement on weakness, it is fairly typical
you and I have been here long enough to know we have heard these comments before, personally, I believe COP is a better buy today than when I bought it 3 yrs ago. The future is better for it than any major. I do not see us going into another recession soon as we haven't gotten out of the last one. Oil prices may come down further but this continues its climb with more and more oil production, bigger dividends, and larger earnings.
go further back I have had it for 3 yrs and it has averaged a 24% annual compounded return counting dividends and its prospects are better today than anytime I have owned it. What makes it a good buy or time to buy is not the price but the prospects for future growth, earnings, and dividend payouts.
stock will break out to new 52 week high soon after the way it has acted the last 3 trading days with the dow down nearly 300 pts and this is up. When the dow rally starts this will explode through its trading range. imo
personally i don't want to see them reduce the float anymore, I also have a sizable position and what scares me is that it is hard to move in and out easily. this needs to either pay more in dividends or buy additional businesses that will fit in. They need to grow the number of shares to attract mutual funds this is a small retail stock and the most likely scenario is that it is bought out by a larger company wanting the technology, If I were GM or F I would buy the company before I bought the technology.
good article thanks
that is a good return but not real good as it is 14% compounded annually and I usually try for 24% but it is better than the overall market on average although not for that time frame.
JMK, I got out and traded some other stocks and did well or better than if I had held but got out of several yesterday and got back in here at 11.38 as it looked like it could rally for a while according to the technicals I watch and I didn't have anywhere else to put the money that would yield this much as exdividend is tomorrow, I did add some SWIR this week. What amazes me is that in the last 4 days the dow is down almost 300 plus points and i have hit a new high account value each day being all long. I can't imagine how the stocks I own will do when this market turns back up.