This discussion on one of america's largest retailers is a good discussion. I see this as a positive item. Inventory control . Not certain if soda management took part with these moves but I'm taking it as they were and they are taking steps for inventory control . Also a refocus of market strategy. The second item that is good news is the qtrly report due end of July. This takes away the unnecessary rumors that would go with a later reporting date. Maybe we are turning the corner. We will find out shortly.
Don't know if your comment on the consumer risk at this time holds for GMCR or not but when gMCR was at the 127 level I have had a short position. Just can;t see the value of GMCR presently. However I did cash that in today. The risk of KO increasing their stake is always in the back of my mind. It was a nice quick trade.
Before investing more you need to ask yourself what will Soda report in earnings. HIstory shows more downs after reporting. Shorts are currently in control. I have invested some more becasue I;ve been very light on this stock since the jan debacle. JUst too many negatives. I'm going against this trend. If you believe in SODA mgt. and get past the Jan debacle Soda is still growing revenue. Wall street is punishing Soda for not making an adjustment to their 2014 forecast yet. My crystal ball says Soda beats Q2 numbers, Q3 numbers may be close. Q4 is the red herring. And if Soda does reduce Q4 forecast Wall street might be forgiving, especially if they start talking new country entrys and/or some details on improving the US market. Note I didn't mention any partnerships or takeovers, those are added bonuses if they come just as the current middle east conflict could take it the other direction.
I hear you. Mgt. has been quiet and have yet to indicate any changes. If they repeat their Jan . mistake and give us another negative surprrise your right we will go much farther down. But if they hit or exceed Q2 which is very possible and keep Q3 numbers ( a little stretch ) and only downplay Q4 somewhat in terms of earnings I think Wall st. will take that as a positive in light of the beaten they have taken. Anticipate Israel putting troops in Gaza this weekend to clean up this rocket mess. Instead of this being a negative Soda might see a positive uptick negating some of this rocket stuff. Thanks for your input. it's always nice to discuss with you. have a good weekend.
Your observations and others on this big challenge should not be a surprise to the veterans of this board. Hell I said in Jan. that soda was dead money for the next 2 qtrs. others had somewhat similar observations. With that said we need to step back and ask has anything changed with forecasts or sales to modify our observations. THe answer is no. There is a heighten concern in light of Soda's current price but nothing has changed in my view. I said in JAN it was'nt good but it would turn good in 2 qtrs' . and many others have had similar comments. So is it not time to invest more. now
It is sure nice to have meaningful conversations on this board again. I hope the two that posted yesteday don't return. I think the veterans on this board know who I speak of.
You are correct. I also remember that posting. He also was on capital ladder postings. But based on johnlastname responses he doesn't want to hear anything that contradicts his statements.
Sorry I don't know you. But if your questioning YOnah answering emails you are mistaken. On several occasions he has answered me on my emails. ONe example was 1 year ago when we were awaiting a date when Soda would publish the qtrly reporting date. He responded quickly stating they were awaiting audit data before they could publish the reporting date. If your posting this email just to cause a fight then I will have to ignore you. have a good day
Yonah we all know you plan to leave Soda and that you also post on this board from time to time. Since the company you are going to posts you on board via their homesite and Soda still has you on their site it would appear that you are working out your departure as transparent as possible. So keeping you on board at Soda for awhile means your departing is on a good note. I hope so and I hope your new job fits your needs. Good luck. PS if you can share any details when you plan to leave would be appreciated but will understand if you can't. Also thank you for answering some of my prior emails awhile back.
Obviously you did your homework on this. Question I have never been in a whole foods grocery so bare with me. Do they have any soda beverages and if so do they violate this list.
I hear you. Playing the quick trades to get my average down more like most of the veterans on this board. What I;m debating is the punishment so severe because the street thinks they will miss that much or is it because management has not come out with adjustments or a re-confirm statement. Unfortunately were in the quiet period now.
Seth you know that your right but being polite. Nothing wrong with that. I haven;t seen Soda being rated on an average so low , especially when the stock price is so low. Using Yahoo for an average 2.9 with only one buy. Yahoo sometimes gets input wrong but using this same source for comparison over time I don't recall so much negativity in light of such a present low stock value. Forward PE will have to look favorable at some point. PEG even more favorable but if an investor questions the forecast then I guess all bets are off.
There will be no pre-announcement. I believe the q2 numbers will be there . They will drag their feet if q3 forecasts are not up to expectations and wait till their qtr. reporting to say anything. Q3 is usually their good qtr. so that might even still be ok. Q4 will be the issue if there is one. The timing of q2 reporting will catch some attention. If they delay until audit results in august might put some people on edge. ONce the rockets stop or subside then we might see some stock price relief. we need to start some buyout rumors.
Yes the challenge is there but will investors forgive a large earnings shorfall even if revenues come up somewhat short. You would think alot of the punishment has been baked in. Does wall street beat a dead horse or does someone come to the rescue. Protection is very expensive. The last time that occurred we turned the corner. Thanks for the feedback.. I noticed you still have a few players on the board just like to pick fights. Have a good day
But the option interests would say just the opposite and possibly a repeat of Jan. reporting. Not that I would agree with it but some of the big boys know something
Absoutely nothing. Where I was a pro Dan B. fan up until Jan. debacle I was willing to let him have that one mistake. Recently thou I have been questioning myself when you look what the stock price has done since he has taken the helm. Absoutely nothing. Now with that said he has definetly excelled in rev. growth and up until recently had great earnings. But the stock price is back when he took over. Do you blame a ceo for stock price. Some say yes and some say no
Welcome. Good observation. the only thing you have to watch closely is rev. continues to grow but we had a setback on earnings going backwards. Q2 results and Q3 forecast will tell the tale.
Your observations are flawed. Don't question that your in store observations are not impressive but you need to keep in mind SODA total business hardly shows up on the radar screen. it wont' take much to move the growth needle as it relates to the uS market. So if one market segment doesn't look well there could be other areas that will make up the difference. the key in the rajor blade concept is protect your base.