I am seeing the market internal is flat, did not drop, so it seem we may either go sideways consolidation or a short market bounce up here.
There maybe a couple of week bounce here, but no telling which direction it will go, MACD still below the centerline. I would like to see it go above the positive centerline. I am waiting to see if SP500 can go above the resistance of 1100, then we can say we have an extended time of a little rally. I don't trust the market at this point.
I don't know why we are arguing if CVX touch the 200 day moving average?
Yesterday the CVX 200 day moving average simple is $122.82 and here is the open, high,low and close:
NOW IT CLOSE BELOW $122.82 (200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE). Maybe you have a different data provider. So, what is the big if it close below or above. It still lost 7.42% from its high last July.
#$%$ of yesterdays look, 4 majors were below 200 days, except CVX was sitting below 200 days average 3 days ago and now bounce above that today.
As of yesterday I have the following majors (4) below 200 day moving average.
CVX (finally today bonce above that)
COP and RDS-A is still above the 200 day moving average.
Last July, they were way above their 200 day moving average, bullish because of dividend reporting. Now it s going into a lower cycle until the next dividend run. If you did not take profit at $83, you would have lost 6% on RD pullback. Then again you are just happy to get 5% a year on dividend, its just your style of investing. I am willing to pay 30% or so for a short term gain if I can keep 70 cents for every dollar I make. Your style is different than mine.
Oldpro, I think there's more down side to come. being that most of major oil companies had drop below their 200 day (bearish) moving average. RD has yet to hit 200 day moving average at $75.00. I wonder if that support will hold.
The key levels to watch are first SPX 1905. If the market revisits this level Primary III probably ended at SPX 2011. Second SPX 2011. If the market rises above this level the uptrend is probably extending. Third SPX 1991. Should the uptrend extend it has to rise high enough to avoid overlapping the high of the previous uptrend. Since we are in pullback mode now, SPX 1905 and 2011 are the current levels to watch.” Where we are at: Elliott wave watch. A drop below 1905 is a market correction. caution!
$75 is the line on the sand. It is a measure of long term bullish or bearish, a drop below $75 is long term bearish for RD. With SP500 pivot resistance at somewhere in 2036 is close, but for now it looks tired and may not even get there with QE ending this month. With the FED's 4 trillions in book pump into the market for intervention and ending this month, what will fuel the next market rally? Some say 5 more years of Bull market is a stretch, it could only happen it there is a meaningful pullback to let the air and recharge for the next bull run. Don't listen to the Bankers, there job is to pump and dump, if there is no dump, it can't go on forever. Just my opinion.
It is premature t to bottom fish RD because it is very bearish. It broke below 20,50,100 day moving average. The next support is $75 for a 200 day moving average. You are going to loss more money trying to swing trade in a direction of a bear. Wait for $75.
I only have a basic understanding of Elliott wave. It is complex and I only try to understand the impulse wave and the corrective wave. There are big wave and a little swing wave within the bigger wave, but pay attention to bigger wave to protect from any deeper pullback that will hurt old folks in retirement, like the 2011 and 2008 bear market. It is only my belief that the market is rig. I was reading a commodity traders of the 1970's to now. He said the market is not like it was before, too much intervention by federal reserve by buying bad loans and pumping QE as well as buying options to stabilize the stock market for bankers and friends. That is not me saying it. Old timer have to look out for yourself. Market is now a casino, none of those buy big companies in the 1960's and retire rich.
Carol, It is your right to disagree. You can even put me on ignore, it will not hurt my feeling. your time frame is longer than mine, mine is 3 weeks to 3 months time frame in looking at the market swing trade.
Another word of caution here from Tony Caldaro (Friday report)
"After the disappointing Payrolls report the market opened flat, then dropped to SPX 1990 in the first hour of trading. The pullback from yesterday’s all time high at SPX 2011 to 1990 nearly equalled the largest of this entire uptrend, (1964-1942). As noted yesterday, we can count five waves up from SPX 1905 to 2011. Today’s low, and subsequent rally, is probably the early stages of an even larger pullback. Some suggest a 38.2% retracement to the 1973 pivot, and others a 50.0% retracement to the 1956 pivot. As long as the market holds one of these levels we can expect an extension of the current uptrend to follow. Should the market break below and hit SPX 1905, Primary III probably ended and Primary IV is underway."
CAUTION! THE MARKET IS GETTING TIRED.
Here is why I tgink the market is getting tired, a comment from Tony Caldaro of the current possibilities that maybe on the last leg of the rally. IF we extend the rally we need a strong advance decline on stock index.
"After reaching a new all time high at SPX 2011, the market started one of its largest pullbacks of the entire uptrend. It appears the choppy advance off the wave 4 low at SPX 1991 was a diagonal triangle fifth wave. We now have five waves up from the recent SPX downtrend low at 1905. For the bears, this could suggest a Primary wave III top. For the bulls, only wave one of a potentially extending uptrend. We currently give both the main count and the alternate count equal probability, while we await further price action in the indices and clarification of the ABS program. Obviously it was an emotional day for traders."
Closed all my ETF funds and only left with small RD position. I buy in any small or large correction and stay until it get tired and get out just to be safe. When you are not sure, just fold. I look at the advance/decline and if it stay strong and advancing, I stay the trade, when % of advancing issues are shrinking, it is losing strength. The advancing is getting weak and I fold.. Good luck!