This time I did not follow the sell signal 3 days ago, hoping that because of dividend in front it will be different, I was wrong. So far the last 4 days energy stock gave back 1/2 of of all April rally gain. All energy sub-industry hit a pivot, means the swing for now is down 4 days ago and the exit s/b 3 days ago. As of now there is no telling how far this pullback will be, if XOM is the gauge it just pivoted today while the energy sector pivoted 4 days ago. If you are looking at the glass half full or half empty. There is a chance that energy can give back the whole gain of April and RD could visit 47. I still have a 50% gain left of April rally so I will save that and exit and if it goes down to 47 a day before the dividend, then I will buy again.
I am out, with my luck it may bounce next day,, I will take my 50% of April rally and be happy.
Well, I should have followed my tick signal sell at $52.00 instead of hoping for dividend to carry the price. Now that the run is over the price support is $46.50. I was wondering if I was watching the jungle or forest too much, I should stick to what I am, a tick tick swing trader.
The energy stock declined 4 days in a row, and all the price gap surge created 5 days ago is now CLOSE, a decisive decline tomorrow will confirm a larger retracement before it try to bounce again before dividend, at the rate of declining trend, RD may not make it to $57 by dividend time. Tomorrow could be line line in the sand if it has any chance for 57 run. My opinion only.
Latest look at SP500 it show it top out on April 24th and has been declining since. I can only hope that it will hold till we get RD dividend to exit.
The earnings will be like BP its bad , but they were expecting over a billions lost but actual lost cam in at half that, so , bad but as bad as expected, same will be for RD, bad but not as bad.
Joe, remember the resistance I mentioned $53.78. Yesterday and today RD can't push thru it, may have to try it again maybe tomorrow or next week.
I am in Joe, after looking at the charts and all of them made "U" turn leaving only the equipment serv. on the negative out of the whole sector, Guru mention about BP good earnings could bode well with RD. I will watch the 53.87 resistance on the way to $55-57 target.
Joe, I thought I will answer your previous question. This Energy trend from January is very much alive a GREEN, and my RD target is still $57.00 with a near term resistance of $53.87. It is safe to buy here if you wish with the dividend coming up and a lot of Institutional buyer are accumulating, because I am a tick watcher my goal is different than long term trader or holder. If I think I can pick a 4% pullback I will gamble, that is how I trade. My strategy is different than others. As of now, Energy Index move sideways the last 5 days (neutral) in a long term bullish environment. My RD strategy, I am looking for 4% or more pullback, also waiting for a break above $53.11 to buy and ride to $55-57. That is how I trade, I read tea leaves, apply my gut feeling.
I thought I'd share how I got this target number. The beginning rally was $35.80 ended at $45.44 pivot on 2/4/2016. This pivot down down from $45.33 ended at $41.61 2/11/2016. This 2 pivot hi and low are the beginning of the rally that just ended at $53.11 . IF you draw a top parallel line from 45.33 to 53.11 is the top channel line copy or drop that top channel line and drop it at 41.61 a 2/11/2016 low. Watch how that line extend to upper right channel at about $48.71 to 49.50 (low channel price support) and $48.71 is about .382% Fibonacci retracement of Feb.11 low to high of $53.11. See how I got this possibilities for pivot entry for the next upswing trade. Hope you guys learn something.
The people who watch the forest is like watching RD from 83 to 28 and to 63 now waiting for 83 again. Just like watching rd from 68 in 1998 till now with no gain, whatever dividend don,t even cover inflation.
The crude charts look still bullish/overbought but the MACD has not shown any downward turn, so until it cross down, so the crude is still in bullish mode.
Maybe dfalgerho can tell us what he see for RD if he is staying till dividend date. He has a T/A background that can contribute ideas.
Today is the first time I see a sell signal during the last 3 weeks of rally on energy. I think, this is the mini-pullback I was waiting for.
Taking profit is matter of choice of what you are happy with. My eyeball calculation is for this swing can go as high as $53.87, but I decided for myself to be content to take profit.
Any broker with a good charting software for active traders shows large trade across your screen or heat map. Ameritrade, esignal, ninjatrader and Worden charts. I use Worden Brothers and I put alert for any 200% net volume on large black 10,000 share or more to alert me.
I just want to add that although we are on the 9th inning, I still see extremely heavy buying by Institution, so for those that decide to stay it is still safe with the support of Institutional buyer here at $52 a share. With that support pullback will be minimum.
Pig get slaughtered, so I am out. Majority of oil stock and index are getting a resistance at the upper Bollinger band. RD today's candlestick pattern look like a hangmen and can be confirm if Monday is a RED. But, I believe we are on the 9th inning of the rally, so I don't want to be be a pig.