Early January, my posting also mention about divergence in signal and if you are be traded, but we were worried about the the crude prices, since I was not sure about the crude price implication to earnings so I only nibble for 40%.. A friend of mine emailed me and said, reading form your post, is that a buy? I said yes for a small portion only because the signal is there but crude price is a variable.
I say, if it pullback after earnings report we can see the impact and maybe buy all in. Its a touch and go.
Looking at the Energy sector stock index and seem to be 1% to double top resistance. IF it continue to rise a percent or 2, then this dividend rally is for real, any pullback from here is minimum. Just strictly looking at the charts without any geopolitics mix on the analysis. Everyone has to position themselves as to wait, enter, or hold on for a ride. As of now it is mix bag, an 8.5 million bought on January 15th, has been sold yesterday with a 8.1 millions share. Normally a large buy volume serve as an anchor on the rally, now has been taken off for profit, the volume average is back to normal except for continued buy back. Just my 2 cents!
I was out until I keep going back looking at the crude oil ETF and how it leveled out and the indicators are rising while price is going down, it convinces me that the price of crude found some support short term and that Oil stock prices found support also and maybe consolidating or inching upward for dividend run. I am not 100% invested because I am not 100% sure as this is just a good possibilities, and also RD double support is good support for this short swing, also SP500 can not find direction as it goes side ways consolidating so there is a good chance of RD rally while SP500 still trying to make up its mind.
Don't know, but tell tale sign are divergence on MACD, stochastic, Elliott wave oscillator are leading the rise, it lead me to believe there is more substance on this rally. Question is when will it stop. I am only 40% in as a hit and run trade, I will hold on to it till it pivot down.
I read the charts and post only what I see, as said before that it is looking positive with double bottom and rising MACD. I wonder if we are not seeing something is the earnings announcement. Second, looking at the overhead trend line is at $67.00 & previous high of $69.50 as resistance, it seem too early for RD to hit this resistance level earnings announcement, unless there is something positive we can't see that the buyers or the insiders have known, at the rate RD is going if it continue will hit there resistance soon, then what? continue to $72 to establish an wider trading range. Very interesting. I am only posting what I am seeing, interpretation are up to you folks. Good luck! any ideas?
MACD is still below mid-line but look at the higher low of the MACD. Price went lower but MAcd pivot is higher, so maybe MACD is telling us this maybe the leveling off and pointing upward in the near future (of course short term).
Comparing the drop of crude to the drop of major oil stock price seem to me the shock does not seem severe, while the crude price is dropping the oil major stock are holding on, or just a normal price pullback relative to crude price drop, in essence no panic there.
RD look like leading other majors on this dividend run, the price and volume oscillator cross above the mid-line. . I think the traders/investors are just taking advantage of the dividend for short run and go back to the sideline after dividend payment and watch the revenue uncertainty. The $61 dollars support seem to hold up here for now, we don't what will happen after the dividend payout.
I am only posting what I see that may benefit others that are a lot more aggressive than me. I believe that the crude prices had bottom out, why? because the Klinger volume oscillator is RISING while the price of crude is leveling up. The time segmented volume is crossing above the 20 day moving average, either the crude price build a base or or start higher from here. The SP500 is still uncertain if going up or down, still sideways until it drop below 1973 (previous pivot), dropping below 1973 could proceed to a double bottom at 1820, so watch 1973 support.
redsguy1, I am not writing this for your benefit, it is for everyone's benefit of aggressive trader or conservative trader. For other chart readers out their that can contribute, please contribute. These are just my opinion, please share your constructive opinion. Good luck.
I am sure about the price of crude if it will hold up the bounce from here. I am merely stating what I see and it is up other folks to use it they way they want to trade it.
It seem to have found price support couple that with divergence of price going down while MACD going up, lead me to believe that it found price support. RD also found support at $61.00 vs previous low of $60.84. This bounce may be a consolidation of RD price range $ 70 and $61, it could zigzag and build a base here and has another chance of making a double top to $70 as it consolidate within these price range, provided it does not drop below $61.00. Rd has also a divergence, being MACD is rising while price was going down, possible that RD price might follow MACD in the upside. Merely stating what chart looks like, don't know if the price of crude had leveled off at $45 as bottom. Just guessing. If you have guts, you can trade the trading range of RD.
It is really starting rough for January. IF SP500 drop below the previous low pivot of 1972, then we maybe in for a larger pullback towards a double bottom support of 1820. We just have to wait and see, as of now, I am all out of the market. Good luck.
I don't predict the market. I follow them and when it make pivot high or low and if it pivot after 5 % or more pullback I buy and sell them a few weeks later. If you look hard enough you can see market pivot high/ low. Elliott wave folks follow this wave cycles, that is why it does not go up or down in s straight line. I read their blogs (traders) and incorporate it in my pivot watch along with technical analysis from traders magazine to help sort things out. Always learning.
It looks like we have another week or so of the market pullback, and RD could hit the near term target of $58 - $59. Who knows what happen after that.
I am always a swing trader. I have no long term holding. I am trading RDS-A and market index ETF. I trade long on bull market and take short position in bear market. I go short if I think the correction is more than 10%. I keep an eye on what market cycle we are in, a corrective wave of primary cycle 2 and 4 are normally more an 10% correction. You can go back and read my posting in 2008 when I post that the bear market is coming and April 2009 when the bear market is ending. I am not a long term investor. You said nobody is that good in timing the market. For me, I am good enough to make money. I am sure that most of the board folks here read my post can say that it help them.
SPX has been consolidating side ways. It makes new high January but the stock participation is declining, heavily weighted are pushing it up, the earnings reporting are coming but momentum is weak so it seem to be (SPX) is forming a head and shoulder pattern and if develop could be another small correction. Just my thought and opinion only.
I was wondering because we are mostly old timers here and protect dearly our 401k. Do you freeze and throw your hands up in the air and wait another 7 years to recover? at our age do you have 7 years to wait? Most of the people exit the market when the market Index drop below the 200 day moving average, by then, they already lost 15 to 20%. Everyone should contribute ideas "how to" so when it comes we prepared for it. My for myself, I am always in the sideline trading only opportunistic swing so I am not expose to major losses. For investors, when do you decide to exit and say I have enough and save what I have left. Just a thought to be prepared. Contributions welcome.
The general market (SPX) show an up pivot, the energy sector show a pivot up yesterday, but I am not settled of the longer term of energy stock because of the crude prices. There is a possibility of RD to make a double top to $69.00 again, or hit resistance on the overhead trend line of $68.00.
I am not trading it because of crude price affecting RD earnings, for aggressive traders, keep your hands ready on the trigger.
It amazing how market react to a comment from FED in Chicago and a possible European QE just turn market market up. All it did was 4 day hick up.