I could have bought a day before too, but a lot of folks are following my trade I don't want to take chances and take gamble that it may or may not succeed, so I am looking for confirmation first then buy.
joe, I was almost tempted yesterday but I make it a point that the bounce has confirmation even though I miss a few dollars.
My view of $46 was predicated if SPX index reach a 20% correction, it did not happen, instead the correction is only equal to last October correction. The indicators I mention was on extreme. equal to 2011 correction but yet it did not bring the SPX to 20% correction instead indicator bounce off as well as the stock. I will go with the flow. The $54 target would be equal the knee jerk rally July 27th to August 11th, and $57.50 is the 1.62% of that of that knee jerk rally and if we consolidate from here would be a double top (if crude bottom) of $59 RD and low end $48.00. Just eyeball reading the chart possibility. I will watch when RD reach $55 and see if there are some momentum left. My 2 cents only.
Three days ago the market and oil sector hit extreme market indicator but yet the market index has only a small 10% +/- correction. The oil sector hit bottom 3 days ago and bounce yesterday but I was looking for a follow up confirmation to have wind behind my back. Today all Index has follow up confirmation and most of the buy signal was generated on oil stock yesterday.
I am buying RD with first target of $54 and second target (if crude bottom out) will be $57.50. Then we will wait and see how the price action tell tell us.
Ron, the market technical are severely broken, market internals and at extreme low almost in the bear market territory. The composite index only 18% is above the 200 day moving average while it hit 2% September 2008 during the free fall. During normal correction, this should be the bottom here, BUT this is wave four correction of the five primary wave impulse, and only just began but indicators is at extreme level. Wave four has 3 wave ABC, A down, B counter trend rally, C final down. Yet we are only a at wave A beginning, it could go sideways diagonal correction or steep ABC. I just assume that there will be knee jerk counter trend here soon wave B. I have to wait this out and see if it is sideways or down. JMHO.
When I was young, I use stay long term, but I learned my lesson that when correction or Bear market come. It seem forever to wait for a bounce. IF you are on your 70's it is wise to scalp for opportunity only. World wide life expectancy is 71.
I don't do investment strategy. I scalp the market with swing trade. I read where the support and resistance and the Fibonacci ratio possibility of pullback and rally. I don't care if the Dow is 18000 or 6000.
I look for where the direction of the trend and trade support and resistance. Does anyone swing trade? or stuck to dividend investing. I know retired guru do both and can short or long to hedge RD.
I posted my worries 2 weeks ago and last week. Today I look them over again and compare to the Elliott wave bloggers. Originally, they project a 2017 Bear Market, they also said that now is only a wave 4 correction not a Bear market and they also said that after this minor correction there is rally to new high then the Bear market. The chart I see is similar to 2007 when the Market Index weekly drop below 200 day moving average. This week it drop below the weekly 200 day moving average. The 2007 pullback below 200 day then rally above it and failed to make new high just even a double top a clear weakness. Today is almost replica of 2007 a start of decline to Bear market 6 month later after failing to stay above the 200 day weekly average. So, the 2017 Bear market could come sooner. It is important to watch then 200 day weekly charts if the Index stay above or below it. Failing to stay above it the next 6 months would signal a Bear Market instead of a minor correction. Just sharing what I see. Lets wait and how it play out.
It is 28 right now. It went as high as 48 in 2011 correction. Then plot an MACD and watch the crossover downside to see that it reach top and it signal a market is returning to normal.
It is possible. The consolidation range is $15, if you subtract it from $42 break point, a possible target is $27.00. So it could happen.
My friend, wait till $46.00 to start buying. The difference between upper and lower price channel is $8.00, minus that from the current RD price of $54.00 equal to $46.00 target. Eyeball way to proximate upper/lower price applied to the break point, just another way of T/A.
I wonder how the dividend investor feel when RD lost 37% from $83. Last bear RD went down to $38.22, now with the glut of oil you may have to wait longer than 6 years to recover. I would have a knot on my stomach. I am glad to be a swing trader.
Some, but most of it is clear of out of sync and deteriorating market internals. As I posted last week about the warning of advance/decline, market breadth, and 8,000 stock of NYSE composite was 80% above the 200 day and drop to 35% BUT yet the SP500 is still close to all time high, REALLY OUT OF SYNC. Now today that percentage drop to 25% and when that drop to 10% then it is time to buy.