There is literally no news to hold it at this level. If they had a good CC last quarter and handily beat even with the increased R&D and hiring, I would agree, but they didn't. It looks like some partiers showed up, drank up the apple schnapps, turned up the music and now are leaving. Hope we don't have a big mess to clean up come Wednesday morning.
I don't know about that. I am watching a whole list of "internet of things" stocks and they are all breaking down today. The higher the stock went up in the last couple weeks the harder its falling. If INVN cant hold this, the next stop is 23. If the CC is only so so you might get less doe doe.
I see some messages of disappointment. I have watched and traded this stock for about two years now and this is par for the game. It will have a big run up, stall fall back, news, another big run up, stall, fall back etc. It just requires patience. You don't buy right after the big run. You wait.
Fire phone no surprise, Digitimes just repeating tired rumor stories that have been repeated a hundred times before.
As I understand it, the CFO also owns no shares. I don't mind sales according to a pre-filed plan but it would be nice if some of the people besides the CEO bought some shares.
Looks like some selling has gotten the upper hand. We may have seen the top before the CC, who knows. But it did close on an upturn the last couple sessions. If this is the intermittent top, I am very happy to get within ten percent of it with my portfolio cut back. A lot better than getting a little panicky at 17 and dumping some shares.
And to answer your question on why I sold, I would be more shall we say concerned, if it were trading now say at 22 versus 26. Unless there is some big surprise at the CC, I believe there will be better entry points than this.
30 was just a guess and my guess was supposed to happen much quicker. When I saw it stuck around 24, I thought that the market was not buying into apple for the third time. This is probably more about unwinding short/long positions with short buyers currently having the upper hand. I wish I was 100 percent correct all of the time and could predict price movements to the penny like everybody here, but I am only human.
I simply pared back my position to where if it does fall 20 percent it is no longer half my portfolio and going to wreck my returns. This is the easy fun part when its on the upswing. The hard part is when the momentum turns. Every guru has 20/20 hindsight.
I am not talking about every last share short. I am talking about getting back to more normal (if you can use that term in this case) levels of maybe 20-25 percent which has been the case for a long time.
Don't believe in day trading, but long term investors can make educated guesses on when to trim back and add to positions.
I thought we would be in striking distance of 30 a lot sooner than this based on what it did last time around on apple rumors. I don't think this has as much to with apple as shorts/longs unwinding positions for the upcoming CC with the short buying side having the upper hand for now. If the short interest (expected to be reported today) shows another decline, that will help support my theory. I went through the entire fiscal 14 trading history and found that just on a P/E basis and not taking cash into account, INVN for current year earnings (58 cents per yahoo) traded in fiscal 14 (ended March 31) anywhere from 15 times current year earnings (when it hit 9) to 44 times earnings (when it hit 24 and change a couple days before March 31. At 26.50 today taking the 71 cents into account for this year fiscal 15, we hit 37 times earnings, so clearly we are at the top of the range. And ironically my 30 dollar prediction would put us at almost 43 times current estimated earnings. Anybody buying at this level shouldn't be surprised for a 10 to 20 percent pull back after the CC. If the CC is not as positive as analysts want, it could be more. Just be forewarned. Great company, great long term outlook, but very volatile and you cant be scared out of your shares when the momentum turns.
Too bad the writer doesn't know anything about INVN. Classic momentum. When the momentum reverses he will be telling you to get out.