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Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) Message Board

rmm3165 22 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Mar 24, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Just scanned the 10Q - what a horror show!

    by jimmypiersal Oct 31, 2014 7:59 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Nov 1, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    To try and provide some balance to your "horror" show: We knew before hand that most of the cash was going to be used up for the Movea and TPI acquisitions. Gross margin would have gone from about 51 percent down to 43 without the inventory write-down. The drop in margins should not be a surprise for being in the premier smartphone. Yes Samsung is down but Xiaomi is up and taking market share from Samsung. Samsung just announced that their strategy of largely avoiding the mid to low end smartphone market was way off and they plan to launch several cheaper phones with more features. It shouldn't matter if Samsung goes down but xiaomi picks up the slack at similar prices. Samsung just yesterday announced the Gear S smartwatch that will include heart monitors and the ability to text and make calls without needing your cell phone. It goes on sale November 7. OIS is being adopted by more and more OEM's. It just amazes me how the people invested in this stock are so manic depressive. Before INVN just had to be in the IPhone otherwise the world was coming to an end and now the world is coming to an end because you got what you wanted. Just a couple weeks ago people were saying INVN is cutting edge, now its selling a commodity product. Make up your minds. Short term expectations were way overblown and unrealistic. We need to see the Iwatch and get an idea of how its going to sell along with other wearables. Give the new CFO a chance. He cleared the deck and the financials took some lumps, But things are not as bad as you make them seem.

  • Reply to

    Just scanned the 10Q - what a horror show!

    by jimmypiersal Oct 31, 2014 7:59 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Nov 1, 2014 3:09 PM Flag

    I would suggest people go over to the Seeking Alpha website for more balanced informative commentary. There people actually discuss things like Soc (system on chip) versus a hub and sensor approach (which is what apple is using in the IPhone 6, along with things like power usage. This used to be a good board before all the newbies showed up.

  • Reply to

    Just scanned the 10Q - what a horror show!

    by jimmypiersal Oct 31, 2014 7:59 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Nov 2, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    I am. INVN has a history of overshooting on the upside and downside. We now have the downside. You need to reassess why you are in this stock, your time horizon and your risk tolerance. If INVN is keeping you up at night you need to get out and be in something less volatile. Your expectations are off the mark short term.

  • rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 2, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    What?? What?? Is that a typo?? This has to do with Samsung not apple. Are you even on the right board??

  • Reply to

    somebody knows something and we don't......

    by loop_around Jan 23, 2015 10:16 AM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 23, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Wow what insight. Do you talk to dead people too?

  • Reply to

    desigel or long time share holders

    by wizzardofoz1970 Jan 27, 2015 8:09 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 28, 2015 8:24 AM Flag

    INVN is my largest holding. I have held my shares for two years now. I acquired most of my shares around 10 to 12 dollars, sold most of my position in the low 20's and repurchased in the high teens thinking the bottom was in. What matters is INVN's technology, specifically power savings. There are rumors the Iwatch battery life is not up to par. Power savings is paramount. Go to the cypress semiconductor yahoo finance summary page and watch the interview the CEO did with cramer. The CEO says the big driver in earnings for semiconductor companies will be wearables, "the internet of things" and programmable system on chip designs which is what INVN has done. Oh and the CEO of cypress also said its cheaper to simply buy out a company that already has developed system on chip (SOC) technology than spend a lot of money developing your own. I would not be surprised that with the board member additions (one used to work in mergers at a large investment bank) that some type of buy out is announced. I don't want that to happen and would rather see INVN grow on its own but I would not be surprised. I would want a price a least double from here in the 30's.

  • Reply to

    desigel or long time share holders

    by wizzardofoz1970 Jan 27, 2015 8:09 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 28, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    Opinions are like aholes. Everybody has one. I would not advise buying or selling based on anything written on some message board. If somebody wants to be conservative, dollar cost average in. Otherwise you are just flipping a coin.

  • Reply to

    desigel or long time share holders

    by wizzardofoz1970 Jan 27, 2015 8:09 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 28, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    And the large portion of the float already short provides cushion to the down side but could magnify the upward swing if the CC is good.

  • "Thank you, Behrooz. Looking towards Q3, we are estimating the total revenue will be within a range of $108 million to $115 million, with the customer and market mix approximately what we experienced in Q2. As a result, our expectations for non-GAAP gross margins in fiscal Q3, is a range between 46% and 47%."

    "Non-GAAP EPS should be a range between $0.17 and $0.21 per share assuming an average share count of about $95 million. You’re modeling us on a GAAP basis, our gross margin should be between 43% and 44%, our operating margin should be between 8% and 12% and our GAAP EPS should be between $0.06 and $0.10 in Q3."

    Last quarter they said inventory writedowns ate 8 percentage points in gross margin. Gross margin on a non gaap basis was 37 percent. The revenue estimates from analysts are 112 million and 20 cents a share in non gaap earnings. I think management came up with some very modest goals for this quarter and I don't see the stock price currently reflecting a beat by any big margin. Is it under priced. No not at all. But unless they cant meet their own modest expectations tomorrow by some margin, I don't see the stock going lower. The price in the 13's was the long term bottom and I think was supported by shorts doing some covering as has been shown by the number of shares short shrinking.

  • rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 29, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    That's what they said last CC. What were you expecting??

  • From Barrons
    " On the conference call, management forecast revenue this quarter of $95 million to $98 million, and EPS of 11 cents to 13 cents, compared to the average Street estimate for $92 million and 12 cents. The company sees non-GAAP gross margin staying about the same, at a range of 46% to 47%.

    Following that forecast, the shares have deepened their decline, down $1.86, or almost 12%, at $13.95."

  • Reply to

    I'm delighted

    by dseigel Jan 29, 2015 4:23 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 29, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    They reported revenue at the top of the range, they beat on earnings they are issuing guidance that is ahead of previous guidance. To top it off they are guiding (according to barrons I have not listened to the CC) of gross margins around 46 percent which is what they guided last qtr and said they would not go above 50 percent for a couple more quarters which I take to be a year. This apparently is a 'sell the news' event and people are trying to milk it for all they can, even reporting wrong revenue numbers and calling it a big miss. Ridiculous. This was a good qtr and as far as I can tell a good CC market be damned.

  • rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 29, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    Are you serious?? I have not listened to the CC. This is why message board are worthless.

  • rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 29, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    hurtstobedumb - I wasn't talking to you.

  • Some people apparently took last qtr's guidance of "we will reach 50 percent margin in a couple qtrs." to have meant this qtr. They appear to be holding costs in line while growing the top line at the expense of some margin to be in the top smartphone in the world. I would rather they be in apple at a lower margin than have much lower revenues at a higher margin. As far as Samsung is concerned, their business with Samsung went up 20 percent, but there is no guarantee they will always have Samsung. The earth could explode tomorrow too. I guess I should sell based on that risk. The street seems to be disappointed that gross margin is where INVN said it would be and not higher already. Its clear they are trying to tamp down expectations now for potential over performance later. They are not modeling higher gross margins until the back half of fiscal 2016 when new products like their programmable 6 axis are expected to ramp up. It appears their next phase is to use software to differentiate their system on chip and make it desirable to more industries including wearables, automobiles and medical going forward, not just smartphones.

  • Reply to

    I am listenting to the CC

    by rmm3165 Jan 29, 2015 6:34 PM
    rmm3165 rmm3165 Jan 29, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    Its clear they are trying to use software to differentiate themselves and create value in their product line (ie. so their chips aren't just a commodity item but are a value added item). It is clear that their power savings architecture is a major competitive advantage going forward. They talked about STM and Bosch but I see Bosch being their main competitor with STM really concentrating more in the automible segment and not consumer electronics. I just get the impression some analysts didn't hear "gross margin improvement in a couple quarters" last time and were expecting 50 percent margins right away. They sacrificed some margin to get higher sales with apple and appear to be keeping operating expenses in line, which is what I want. Losing some gross margin for higher sales is not a bad thing if the margin grows in total dollars and that makes it to the bottom line.

  • Reply to

    May See

    by dseigel Jan 29, 2015 6:29 PM

    options expiration today also seems to be playing a role.

  • Reply to

    May See

    by dseigel Jan 29, 2015 6:29 PM

    Perhaps you need a new way to make up for other areas that are perhaps physically or mentally lacking instead of getting into #$%$ matches with people.

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