If I go back to last early November when INVN went from about 21 down to 16 what do I see?? The almost same posts (even word for word) that you are posting now. Oh why did I buy INVN, what a crummy stock, the shorts control it. INVN is no good, blah blah blah. The more things change the more they stay the same. And when it picks up I fully expect the same people to be singing the praises of INVN. Except you Jimmy. You have to hold back. You promised.
Invn had traded in the last year from about 15 times fiscal 14 earnings (when it was at nine bucks May 1) to 40 times earnings when it was 24 and change. Right now at 17.50 its a little below its average of 27.5 times current year earnings. To get to its average it would have to get back to about twenty bucks, which I see it doing. I am sorry we have a lot of disappointed people here, but this is what this stock does and is just par for the course. This is how it acts as do many of the stocks in this cell phone supplier, wearables, internet of things etc space.
The stock has gone up about 70 percent including today since his reign was announced around October of 2012. Not bad.
Esekla on SA said the range is 70 to 75 so I guess that explains the drop, but that is still 25 percent earnings growth and that's THIS YEAR. Its not considering next year fiscal 2016. So at the midpoint if you carve out the 2.80 in cash and investments you are getting INVN for about 18.8 times this years earnings at the share price of 16.48 (which I now see is 17.44.). Nobody can convince me that's expensive with 25 percent earnings growth. I use PEG calculations to get a rough idea on what fair value based on earnings what might be. Right now at 25 percent that would be between 20 and 21 a share (25 times 72.5 cents plus 2.80 in cash and investments). I try to buy stocks at least to a 20 percent discount to my fair value calculations. That would mean anything under 17.50 would be a buy. If I didn't already have a large postion I would say buying INVN in the 16's at its long term support is a gift, but you have to have some patience and fortitude. I have seen this with other stocks in this space and I am not giving up on a 25 percent plus grower.
At the now 16.48 if you carve out about 2.80 in cash and investments, you are getting INVN at about 16.5 times this years earnings. Earnings estimates for NEXT YEAR (fiscal 2016) would have to be about 67 cents to reach my back of the envelope fair value which would be a PEG of 1. I try to buy stocks at a PEG of .5 (in other words I try to buy them where the P/E is half their growth rate). I don't see next years (fiscal 2016) earnings shrinking 20 percent from this year. This is a huge overreaction. If I didn't have such a large position already (at 12) I would be buying. Sometimes markets get it right and sometimes they get it way wrong. This is way wrong considering the opportunities coming up.
This is what this stock does. If this is a surprise you need to get out of this stock and buy something like general mills.
I guess the world ended at the end of the CC.
Jimmy - You aren't going to go from manic to depressive are you?? Try and keep an even keel.
Are you putting your head in the noose or hooking up the hose to your cars exhaust as we speak?? At 18 ex cash and investments you are getting INVN for about 18 times next years earnings. Hardly expensive in my book.
So let me get this straight. You are going to compare INVN that at 18 bucks a share trades at about 18 times this years estimates to LNKD that at 200 just a month ago was trading at over 100 times this years earnings?? I just want you to confirm that.
Better than a kick in the groin my friend. Would you rather be invested in the very exciting QUIK that lost 20 percent today because they lowered 2nd quarter revenue for their programmable MEMS chips?? Some on Seeking Alpha were just last month arguing how exciting that was compared to boring INVN.