Pac Crest last summer was predicting the motion sensor for the Iphone 5S so excuse me if I don't go and take out an equity loan on my home and put that in too.
I am sorry some people disagree with me, but remember INVN has to displace Bosch. Bosch is the MEMS elephant. I think INVN's best shot at getting apple as a customer is OIS for the Iphone6 camera, but we wont know that for a couple months. At these levels INVN has to hit it out of the park with earnings and guidance. They haven't done that since about the first quarter of 2013. We go through this every time apple brings out a new phone or Ipad. Anticipation, price run up, predictions more price run up, then its confirmed no apple and price collapse. Iphone4, Iphone5, Iphone5S along with corresponding Ipads. Analysts were just as adamant about the Iphone5S and last round of Ipads. Apple WAS a customer. Well no they weren't. I am not saying it wont happen, I am just saying that at these prices, this is a total #$%$ shoot. I hope I am wrong but history is on my side here. I am an INVN bull but not at these prices once again on rumors. The only mistake I made was I thought the yearly seasonal round of apple rumors would have already pushed us towards 30. It seems many other people are taking a wait and see approach while the short interest is taking money off the table just in case. Hence our stuck in neutral stock price in the low 20's.
Jun. 28, 2013, 1:32 PM
InvenSense (INVN +5.3%) rallies for the second day in a row thanks to analyst notes predicting iPhone design wins. Pac Crest thinks a 3-axis InvenSense gyroscope has been designed into a next-gen iPhone, and believes the win could add $0.40 to EPS (an iPad win is seen adding $0.20). Meanwhile, Maxim's Ashok Kumar is doing an about-face (previous) and stating checks indicate there's a "better than even chance" InvenSense will be designed into an expected low-cost iPhone. OTR Global wrote yesterday checks pointed to an InvenSense iPhone win.
Jun. 27, 2013, 10:42 AM
InvenSense (INVN +3.1%) has indeed scored its first iPhone motion sensor design win, says OTR Global in a note boosting shares. Goldman, one of several firms to have already reported of or predicted an iPhone 5S win, thinks the win could lift EPS by ~60%.
Jun. 24, 2013, 1:37 PM
Apple suppliers haven't responded well to Jefferies' note about high iPhone channel inventories, build order cuts, app processor production cuts, and memory reallocations. CRUS -4.4%. OVTI -5.7%. SWKS -3.5%. RFMD -3.5%. STM -3.9%. NTE -4.6%. NXPI -5.4%. InvenSense (INVN -7.4%), which isn't yet an Apple supplier but is expected to be one soon, is also off sharply.
INVN rallied from the 15's to up over 21 until it was revealed it wasn't in the Iphone. It collapsed back down to the 15's.
I think if they just meet expectations there will be a large downdraft in the stock. I have been to this party twice before (Iphone 4 and Iphone 5) and each time it has ended badly. The Iphone wont come out until at least September. If you look at the short interest it is decreasing and the downward line in short interest correlates strongly with the run up from 17. The decrease in short interest is helping prop up the price. For me its just too risky here and I am taking about three quarters of my position off the table in the next two weeks. INVN represents now a LARGE portion of my portfolio. I will get back in after the CC. If things go as I expect, I will be buying INVN in the teens. If wall street doesn't like the CC we could easily see 17 or 16 again.
I had predicted we would hit 30 with apple rumors but that seems to be wrong. The bigger the upswing on rumors the bigger the downside when we aren't in the Iphone 6. Not saying that wont happen but I am happy to have INVN stay around 22 until earnings. It means the downside will be muted.
The forward P/E of about 21 ex cash and investments is not "lofty". It just is not a screaming buy anymore without news of new customers or product placements.
The problem is its just as risky right now to be in the stock as out. Its about at fair value with the 25 to 30 percent sales growth management has modeled WITHOUT apple.
The question is, will the gap be filled because of soros unloading. I will be interested to see if he sold any stock this quarter. That's what I don't like about a stock like click. Somebody like soros can burn you with one mouse click.
Of course somebody made a couple phone calls. But its up on paltry volume. Whats more soros stake is worth about one tenth of one percent of his net worth. That's like somebody worth a millions dollars having a grand in Click. BUT soros is in a position to manipulate the stock. And this is what manipulation looks like in a small thinly traded stock.
According to his bio on linkedin he is a founder of the startup alliance and CTO of boatbound, an online boat rental marketplace. It appears all he did was look at the iwatch, imagine if the 9 axis invensense chip was in it and tweet about it. That's all. Unless he rented a boat to some invensense people and heard them talking..................................................probably not.